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Oct Banter/Obs IV...........


Mr Torchey

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First of all, ha ha Scott with that little "Tip blizzicane" blerb - laughing

But no. I am not going down with that ship. And that goes for you too, Kevin, don't pin that on me.

My whole deal was that large scale subtleties in the pattern suggested cold loading into S-SE Canada, and was pretty clear that I only meant that as a necessary prelude to snow chance - all of which seemed good for the first week of November.

This odd looking Euro solution is just yanking that chain, but honestly ...I was joking about the CMC's attempts to do this yesterday only.

That said, I hope it happens just the same as the next guy if for nothing else, how bizzare would it be to bookend such an obnoxiously extended above normal era with something like that. Seriously, forget for a moment that it is suggesting cold profile event - per se - step back, and consider that as a whole.

Oh I knew what you meant...just joking around with the Tip blizzcane. The fact that a low offshore has some support with a tropical connection is interesting.

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First of all, ha ha Scott with that little "Tip blizzicane" blerb - laughing

But no. I am not going down with that ship. And that goes for you too, Kevin, don't pin that on me.

My whole deal was that large scale subtleties in the pattern suggested cold loading into S-SE Canada, and was pretty clear that I only meant that as a necessary prelude to snow chance - all of which seemed good for the first week of November.

This odd looking Euro solution is just yanking that chain, but honestly ...I was joking about the CMC's attempts to do this yesterday only.

That said, I hope it happens just the same as the next guy if for nothing else, how bizzare would it be to bookend such an obnoxiously extended above normal era with something like that. Seriously, forget for a moment that it is suggesting cold profile event - per se - step back, and consider that as a whole.

If this does occur, Its almost like we had three decades worth of good storms in one decade.. pretty amazing

Tip, what do you mean by cold profile? Just the fact that its pretty much 30s for SNE in OCT?

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Oh I knew what you meant...just joking around with the Tip blizzcane. The fact that a low offshore has some support with a tropical connection is interesting.

A once in a lifetime event can happen every year

I can see little Weenies sledding from house to house on OCT 31 asking for candy

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Well it looks like our first widespread accumulating snow event of the year is on the way late next week for interior SNE away from the coast. Euro/GFS both have it.

Euro lost the Heloween torch too..

Let's hope we can also get a killing freeze later next week

Dude this post just made my morning... its not the same if you aren't going cold and snow all the time. Welcome back. Its about time you slammed your balls against the cover of the K.U. book.

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The euro has the blizzicane.. the GFS develops the hurricane but shoves it out toward Bermuda but still is able to develop a separate storm off New England to bring snow to northern NE.

Interestingly... I think the cold profile probability is set in it self enough, and we should shelve the whole tropical involvement until much nearer terms - pretty much obvious to say all that, I know ...

But the point is, even the "GONAPS" model has a bomb about to detonate with a powerful S//W embedded in trough amplifying across the MA around 180 hours... Meanwhile, it too has cold thickness in the critical areas of the sounding from PHL to interior SNE.

That model is about as useful as boobs on a buffalo beyond about 10 minutes, because of it huge longitudinal bias at all times. That said, a Boston area on-camera Met of certain noteriety and I once discussed how sometimes when the NOGAPS sees amplitude, in other words, overcomes its own bias, the time period in question tends to verify note-worthy. I probably wouldn't bother to bring this up if it were not for the fact that all guidance has been signalign "something", and there has been some ques out there for cold inserting into 50N for a while now.

I don't know...tough call. To talk about snow before October 31 is inherently a bad idea - you almost just have to wait and see.

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i'm just impressed there is general model consensus on a colder looking storm day 8'ish at the present time....which may or may not mean anything

pipe dream or not....there is at least for a day lol a general model consensus on a storm that far out as opposed to the euro being out on it's own....which would be much more laughable.

i wouldn't mind skiing wildcat next sunday :thumbsup:

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Well it looks like our first widespread accumulating snow event of the year is on the way late next week for interior SNE away from the coast. Euro/GFS both have it.

Euro lost the Heloween torch too..

Let's hope we can also get a killing freeze later next week

I think the odds of Kevin getting accumulating snow next Friday or Saturday are <5 percent.

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I don't even see a trace. Then again could be crappy NCDC data that I'm looking at. You know how the snow data can be spotty/unreliable at times.

Yeah I'm not really sure, maybe that storm was more back towards the Berkshires, Catskills, S.VT, and Albany area. I know that storm closed the Mass Pike out near G.C.

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