Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 the CMC tries to do this once every autumn it seems... It takes a full bird TC right up into a baroclinic wall, fuses the two together, and produces some kind of hyper scenario of 77F DP in warm sector while it is snowing like a blizzard over western NF. Never seen that happen, though the annals suggest it has happened before. Gotta figure something like that to be exceptionally rare... Although, the "Perfect Storm" as it were was similar, just didn't have the cold air... And it also went back to warm phase at the end, too... weird. Sounds like a "stemwinder" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Sounds like a "stemwinder" to me. SnowNH's stem wrapped all around his waist after Tip described that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 SnowNH's stem wrapped all around his waist after Tip described that. Uhhh yea.. tip mentioning a cane and blizzard in the same paragraph.. I almost went to the bathroom at work with lube and tissues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Uhhh yea.. tip mentioning a cane and blizzard in the same paragraph.. I almost went to the bathroom at work with lube and tissues i didn't, the CMC did - too much messenger blamage around this place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 SnowNH's stem wrapped all around his waist after Tip described that. it's Noel-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 And then the CMC says...ok, why not throw a Charley redux in at hr 180. I swear some of the board members run that model in their basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 And then the CMC says...ok, why not throw a Charley redux in at hr 180. I swear some of the board members run that model in their basement. Maps dod gamnit... maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 it's Noel-esque. The 00z run? I only see the 12z run to hr 180. Edit: I saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Maps dod gamnit... maps! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The 00z run? I only see the 12z run to hr 180. Edit: I saw it. yeah the 00z is pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 CMC AND UKMET ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENS MEMBERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NWRN CARRIBEAN NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED SFC PROGS FOR THIS FEATURE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL CMC AND UKMET APPROACHING WRN CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL MID NEXT WEEK. HPC UPDATED PROGS USE A MIXTURE OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS DAYS 3-5 SUN-TUES AND 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS 6-7 WED/THURS. SOME FRONTAL CHANGE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO AFTN FINALS WITH A SLOWER FRONT THRU THE SRN PLAINS AND APPROACHING THE APPLCHNS DAY 7 THURS WITH ADDITIONAL ATTENTION MADE TO THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND THREAT TO THE WRN CARRIBEAN AND TOLLAND CONNECTICUT. KEVIN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 12 days till Festivus, and the annual tree lighting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 yeah the 00z is pretty funny. Yeah it was - I was just mentioning how the CMC model seems to do this every year around this time. I remember back in the day, 2003 I think it was, the CMC's day 10 had a hurricane phasing into a regular cold season nor'easter, with marginal thickness from PHL on up - the result was a hyper bomb ...964mb type of thing. You laugh at a day 10 chart's eye candy when you see that. The days ticked by, some runs came back with it, others morphed the whole thing into just a cold core system with no tropical involvement... It all verified with the December 2003 New England snowstorm, no tropical involvement. Here's the Wikepedia run down on it, taken for what it is worth: It was a severe nor'easter that impacted the Eastern United States during the first week of the month. It produced heavy snowfall throughout the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions, locally exceeding 40 inches (1 m).[1] The cyclone had complex origins, involving several individual weather disturbances. An area of low pressure primarily associated with the southern branch of the jet stream spread light precipitation across portions of the Midwest and Southeast. The low reached the coast on December 5 and continued to produce snow throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Another system involving the northern branch of the jet stream merged with the initial storm, causing another coastal storm to develop. This storm soon became the primary feature as it intensified and moved northeastward. It reached Cape Cod on December 6, but became nearly stationary through the morning of December 7.[2] It had finally abated by December 8.[3]Conditions surrounding the storm allowed for several bands of heavy snowfall to set up over New York State and New England, including a small area of 4 in (100 mm) per hour snowfall rates in the Hudson Valley. As a result of extremely cold temperatures over the region, snowfall accumulations were generally significant and broke several daily records. At Albany, New York, 12.5 in (320 mm) of snow fell in just one day. Locations affected by the storm commonly picked up 17 to 24 in (430 to 610 mm), with totals occasionally exceeding 30 in (760 mm).[2] The event led to widespread travel delays from Washington, D.C. to Boston, and around 13 people lost their lives because of the storm.[4] The nor'easter was among the largest early-season winter storms to affect the major East Coast cities on record. Many areas reported blizzard-like conditions.[5] In the end it was just that the CMC has a kind of TC genesis bias much of the time, and the trough amplitude/depth was probably going to be there either way. This is by no means an analog, but seeing a mid autumn trough steepen along the coast and a TC caught in the flow is pretty typical for the CMC. That said, there is a nice area of disturbed weather down there. TPC hatches that out with 20% currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 CMC AND UKMET ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENS MEMBERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NWRN CARRIBEAN NEXT WEEK. HAVE ADJUSTED SFC PROGS FOR THIS FEATURE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL CMC AND UKMET APPROACHING WRN CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL MID NEXT WEEK. HPC UPDATED PROGS USE A MIXTURE OF 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS DAYS 3-5 SUN-TUES AND 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS 6-7 WED/THURS. SOME FRONTAL CHANGE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO AFTN FINALS WITH A SLOWER FRONT THRU THE SRN PLAINS AND APPROACHING THE APPLCHNS DAY 7 THURS WITH ADDITIONAL ATTENTION MADE TO THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND THREAT TO THE WRN CARRIBEAN AND TOLLAND CONNECTICUT. KEVIN $$ Lol tolland ... going to home depot now for bags sand and plywood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Yeah it was - I was just mentioning how the CMC model seems to do this every year around this time. I remember back in the day, 2003 I think it was, the CMC's day 10 had a hurricane phasing into a regular cold season nor'easter, with marginal thickness from PHL on up - the result was a hyper bomb ...964mb type of thing. You laugh at a day 10 chart's eye candy when you see that. The days ticked by, some runs came back with it, others morphed the whole thing into just a cold core system with no tropical involvement... It all verified with the December 2003 New England snowstorm, no tropical involvement. Here's the Wikepedia run down on it, taken for what it is worth: It was a severe nor'easter that impacted the Eastern United States during the first week of the month. It produced heavy snowfall throughout the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions, locally exceeding 40 inches (1 m).[1] The cyclone had complex origins, involving several individual weather disturbances. An area of low pressure primarily associated with the southern branch of the jet stream spread light precipitation across portions of the Midwest and Southeast. The low reached the coast on December 5 and continued to produce snow throughout the Mid-Atlantic. Another system involving the northern branch of the jet stream merged with the initial storm, causing another coastal storm to develop. This storm soon became the primary feature as it intensified and moved northeastward. It reached Cape Cod on December 6, but became nearly stationary through the morning of December 7.[2] It had finally abated by December 8.[3]Conditions surrounding the storm allowed for several bands of heavy snowfall to set up over New York State and New England, including a small area of 4 in (100 mm) per hour snowfall rates in the Hudson Valley. As a result of extremely cold temperatures over the region, snowfall accumulations were generally significant and broke several daily records. At Albany, New York, 12.5 in (320 mm) of snow fell in just one day. Locations affected by the storm commonly picked up 17 to 24 in (430 to 610 mm), with totals occasionally exceeding 30 in (760 mm).[2] The event led to widespread travel delays from Washington, D.C. to Boston, and around 13 people lost their lives because of the storm.[4] The nor'easter was among the largest early-season winter storms to affect the major East Coast cities on record. Many areas reported blizzard-like conditions.[5] In the end it was just that the CMC has a kind of TC genesis bias much of the time, and the trough amplitude/depth was probably going to be there either way. This is by no means an analog, but seeing a mid autumn trough steepen along the coast and a TC caught in the flow is pretty typical for the CMC. That said, there is a nice area of disturbed weather down there. TPC hatches that out with 20% currently. Decent write-up from NWS State College: http://nws.met.psu.edu/severe/2003/5-6Dec2003.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Just got back in from my run. A car with CT plates was driving slowly past the Pit. I swear it was Kevin checking to see how my leaves were doing and if I needed any help. 61.2/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Decent write-up from NWS State College: http://nws.met.psu.e.../5-6Dec2003.pdf Ray loved that storm. He was choking on cstl front exhaust for hours....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Good explanation Scott. I kind of think we should have a thread somewhere (maybe in the main forum) designated for "Meteorology 101" where people can ask questions and the pros can answer them. Scott and Will are very good at this. They could easily be teachers of the subject Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 And then the CMC says...ok, why not throw a Charley redux in at hr 180. I swear some of the board members run that model in their basement. If any basement its al gore's basement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Just a stellar ending to a day that started out crappy 64F for a high, nice breeze I wish that that was the end of Endless Summer but I don't think so. Started handing out sign up sheets for ski club, so its getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Sounds like a Hazel type scenario is likely heading our way late next week. Tip is forecasting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Sounds like a Hazel type scenario is likely heading our way late next week. Tip is forecasting that Maybe if you work hard and study, you can get a Trust Me I'm a Meteorologist t shirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Sounds like a Hazel type scenario is likely heading our way late next week. Tip is forecasting that Hazel probably would have disappointed you immensely in Tolland while the NJ and mid Atlantic weenies were getting blown everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 With a torch like today, its hard to believe November is right around the corner. It just doesn't feel like fall right now. Anyone else feel that way. I mean at this point in other years I would be smelling that burning wood smell from fire places. Just feels like august right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 With a torch like today, its hard to believe November is right around the corner. It just doesn't feel like fall right now. Anyone else feel that way. I mean at this point in other years I would be smelling that burning wood smell from fire places. Just feels like august right now. Turn that frown upside down! Snow coming next week, then a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Like these windy days as they help turn the water over on the lakes and ponds. Let's get em cooled off and frozen quick. We're thinking of building another ice boat. Last one was fun but suffered a career ending injury. Always wanted to try one of those puppies out. Grew up skating and sailing. 2+2! I did make a hand-sail to use ice skating on a five mile skate trail on a nearby lake a couple winters ago. Skate up wind, stop & put the sail/braces together, pop the chute and whoosh. It's just a little ~3'x3' rig but good fun anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 http://www.easy931.com/ merry xmas, man this put me in a good mood........blasting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 With a torch like today, its hard to believe November is right around the corner. It just doesn't feel like fall right now. Anyone else feel that way. I mean at this point in other years I would be smelling that burning wood smell from fire places. Just feels like august right now. Yeah, it's definitely weird. I remember another late warm stretch a few years back--05 maybe? I just remember barely having a frosting of snow at Christmas that year (at 1200' in central VT), valley locations still having greenish grass, hardly any/no ice on the lakes and ponds and even a very few late-blooming flowers being reported--probaly violets. Pretty sure it was 05-06 now that I think about it. We made up a lot of ground later in the winter but it was very late in getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 With a torch like today, its hard to believe November is right around the corner. It just doesn't feel like fall right now. Anyone else feel that way. I mean at this point in other years I would be smelling that burning wood smell from fire places. Just feels like august right now. Completely agree...Jaffrey (AFN) made it up to 63F today, total torch as we only got down to 47F last night on the campus weather station. I haven't checked today's maximum on my classroom weather station, but I assume we were over 60F on campus at Hampshire Country School given that it was already 58F around noontime. Feels more like early September with the warm days and just slightly cool nights. Not an odor of woodsmoke in the air, any attractive foilage, or any sight of snow in the forecast. Disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Yeah, it's definitely weird. I remember another late warm stretch a few years back--05 maybe? I just remember barely having a frosting of snow at Christmas that year (at 1200' in central VT), valley locations still having greenish grass, hardly any/no ice on the lakes and ponds and even a very few late-blooming flowers being reported--probaly violets. Pretty sure it was 05-06 now that I think about it. We made up a lot of ground later in the winter but it was very late in getting going. It was 2006-2007. December 2006 was a mega torch with hardly any snow anywhere in New England, even the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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