Redmorninglight Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 We actually could use some rain down here. I think this is best for most interests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 The implementation was delayed, was initially suppose to occur in July. I've just read its overall better. They are also going to be dropping some of the ancient rsm and eta members of the sref in the not too distant future also. A closer to 4dvar gfs is suppose to start in 2012. Thank you sweet Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 We actually could use some rain down here. I think this is best for most interests. Yeah, the coastal areas could use this. We'll gladly dryslot this October and November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Thank you sweet Jesus. so Tony now has long flowing blondish hair?? Really??? I need to see a pic of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 not looking forward to more rain. yard doesn't need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 not looking forward to more rain. yard doesn't need it Latest from Mt Holly is 1/4 to 1/2 where you live, so I guess this rides stage right and up Jersey. HPC is a little more aggressive as shown here, although I've noted that HPC is somewhat heavy handed when it comes to QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 not looking forward to more rain. yard doesn't need it This radar looks like more than 2 inches coming our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 This radar looks like more than 2 inches coming our way. It's been underperforming in the south. Go to the Southeast thread and read some of the obs. Rain is flying north into a dry airmass and dynamics will be less than ideal where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 It's been underperforming in the south. Go to the Southeast thread and read some of the obs. Rain is flying north into a dry airmass and dynamics will be less than ideal where you live. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 its going to be interesting to see which computer model is correct. The gfs is by far the most mundane of them all with .25 of qpf. The euro each run has been ticking down the rain, with the latest 12z run showing .75-1 from the del river on east. While the nam and the ggem are the most agressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 its going to be interesting to see which computer model is correct. The gfs is by far the most mundane of them all with .25 of qpf. The euro each run has been ticking down the rain, with the latest 12z run showing .75-1 from the del river on east. While the nam and the ggem are the most agressive. There are just too many t-cells on the radar to say it is all virga that will hit us. Those in the SE region have had the virga and light showers but we will experience the Tenn Valley T-cells by the time the moisture from the Carolina reaches us. Frankly, the model with the most moisture may win this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 00z NAM just increased the rainfall over the next 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 00z NAM just increased the rainfall over the next 24 hrs one can see why http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 00z NAM just increased the rainfall over the next 24 hrs Yep, bullseye further west as well (Of course ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 wow, big change in the nam huh? Almost widespread 1.0-2.0 inches of rain throughout the area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 GFS could not be more different from the NAM thru the first 24 hrs with QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 And so it begins... The 1st of many model battles. WHO WIL BE VICTORIOUS?!?! I'll place my money on the euro. Nam seems a little bullish, and gfs too shy. I wonder if the nam is trying to develop a convective cluster , hence the elevated precipitation totals to the west/I-95 corridor and a more moderate isentropic rain falls over shore points? On ny iPhone @work, so don't have time/tools to look over the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 its going to be interesting to see which computer model is correct. The gfs is by far the most mundane of them all with .25 of qpf. The euro each run has been ticking down the rain, with the latest 12z run showing .75-1 from the del river on east. While the nam and the ggem are the most agressive. This really isn't surprising...NAM/GG are typically more "bullish" on rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Considering it's raining into Philly already...this was the QPF for between 2 and 5 AM on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 BTW, slight risk out today generally S/W of Harrisburg-Philly-Millville line (mainly for later today) but wouldn't surprise me if that is nudged north/east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 not welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CDT WED OCT 19 2011 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA/NC... CORRECTED FOR MINOR WORDING ...CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA/PA... THE BRUNT OF A BROAD/DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT. INITIALLY TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WHERE STRONG/MODESTLY VEERING LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INLAND DEVELOPING MOIST/UNSTABLE NEAR-COASTAL AIRMASS. IN THIS CASE...CONCERN EXISTS INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. INTO THE UPSTATE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND A BIT LATER TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS A MOIST INFLUX CONTINUES AND THE PARENT CYCLONE UNDERGOES A DEEPENING PHASE/BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. WHILE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER MAY TEND TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN MODEST...PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS/DPVA AND DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDES CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-TOPPED/FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE IN VICINITY OF AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING COLD FRONT FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY MODEST BUOYANCY...THE DEGREE OF FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR MAY YIELD SOME SUPERCELLS /ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE/ ASIDE FROM THE EVOLUTION OF A FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS. IN THIS SCENARIO...DAMAGING WINDS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE RELATIVELY GREATEST POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO SPREAD/INCREASE FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN NC INTO CENTRAL VA/MD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT LEAST A MARGINAL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD VERY WELL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF PA/DELMARVA AND EVEN SOUTHERN NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 not welcome surprisingly, under those heavy bands near you, the QPF is only ~0.3" an hour. I will say though that the representation on radar of the axis is not at all what the models have depicted over the last several days. I haven't seen them all, but none had the WSW-ENE orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 19, 2011 Author Share Posted October 19, 2011 surprisingly, under those heavy bands near you, the QPF is only ~0.3" an hour. I will say though that the representation on radar of the axis is not at all what the models have depicted over the last several days. I haven't seen them all, but none had the WSW-ENE orientation. Those bands aren't really as heavy as the radar is showing. Using GR2AE, highest dbz showing up is 40. Light to moderate rain at the most imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Those bands aren't really as heavy as the radar is showing. Using GR2AE, highest dbz showing up is 40. Light to moderate rain at the most imo. everyone's under a .25" of rain so far as of 6 AM. Run of the mill event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Boy it's raw here, 48 degrees with light rain, around .5 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 0.29" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 everyone's under a .25" of rain so far as of 6 AM. Run of the mill event so far. yea, the radar is overestimating precip totals by 2 fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Clear air mode? Or is there a dry level somewhere between the prec deck and the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 0.49" in Macungie, PA. Great call by NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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