Weathafella official winter forecast...supercedes all prior guesses

nutmegfriar · October 24, 2011

Where are the acorns?

Ginx snewx · October 24, 2011

Where are the acorns?

Flung to Canada with Irene big winter in Canada

weathafella · November 2, 2011

Folks, I think this forecast may be toast. I had a medical appt and stopped home to pick something up. My wife pointed out el gordo on my deck. I haven't seen squirrels this fat since this time in 2004. The SOB was kind of posing and I swear he was smirking at me....

Ginx snewx · November 2, 2011

Folks, I think this forecast may be toast. I had a medical appt and stopped home to pick something up. My wife pointed out el gordo on my deck. I haven't seen squirrels this fat since this time in 2004. The SOB was kind of posing and I swear he was smirking

you are done, fat bastard he is!

ORH_wxman · November 2, 2011

LOL...holy crap that thing is fat. 80"+ at BOS again?

ski MRG · November 2, 2011

Portly.

CoastalWx · November 2, 2011

Jesus..LOL, is that a racoon??

klw · November 2, 2011

We once had a squirrel that fat living in our backyard. We had bird feeders and we put out corn cobs out for the squirrel. I eventually found him dead near our potting shed with no sign of trauma, I think his poor heart gave out from his obesity.

weathafella · November 2, 2011

LOL...holy crap that thing is fat. 80"+ at BOS again?

Honestly if I had waited until today, I'd be calling for 80-100.

Crazy!

Not only that, when I left work on the way to the doctors LONG BEFORE I SAW FATTY, I saw 2 squirrles f*cking on a grassy knoll. Too many signs to ignore.

DavisStraight · November 2, 2011

Maybe he has a glandular problem.

HoarfrostHubb · November 2, 2011

Lol. Squirrels love dem punkins

Mr Torchey · November 2, 2011

Folks, I think this forecast may be toast. I had a medical appt and stopped home to pick something up. My wife pointed out el gordo on my deck. I haven't seen squirrels this fat since this time in 2004. The SOB was kind of posing and I swear he was smirking at me....

Jerry that looks like mid summer foilage! Im suprised to see that much green up there much greener than down here

Ginx snewx · November 3, 2011

Honestly if I had waited until today, I'd be calling for 80-100.

Crazy!

Not only that, when I left work on the way to the doctors LONG BEFORE I SAW FATTY, I saw 2 squirrles f*cking on a grassy knoll. Too many signs to ignore.

:lmao:

Ginx snewx · November 3, 2011

Allen Raleigh WX says go big or go home!

weathafella · November 3, 2011

Jerry that looks like mid summer foilage! Im suprised to see that much green up there much greener than down here

Norway maples are always late. My yard is typically just changing now so we're probably 5-10 days behind.

ORH_wxman · November 3, 2011

Allen Raleigh WX says go big or go home!

Yeah he was cold...all 3 months below average here.

HoarfrostHubb · November 3, 2011

Dey is everywhere

Nikolai · November 3, 2011

pretty sure the squirrels are looking fairly portly in NYC this year as well...

CoastalWx · November 3, 2011

Allan's Feb map would be epic for SNE.

ORH_wxman · November 3, 2011

Allan's Feb map would be epic for SNE.

1994-esque...Jerry's favorite winter.

HoarfrostHubb · November 3, 2011

Allan's Feb map would be epic for SNE.

Nice battleground

CoastalWx · November 3, 2011

Nice battleground

Man would I give for a great February like that.

weathafella · November 3, 2011

1994-esque...Jerry's favorite winter.

Yep. Very cold snowy winter upcoming.

ORH_wxman · November 3, 2011

Man would I give for a great February like that.

Good for your Canadian prairies arctic high fetish.

weathafella · November 3, 2011

Analog years:
1950-51, 1964-65, 1968-69, 1970-71, 1988-89, 1999-00, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09. Thankfully, the weakest of the list are 1999-00 and 2001-02. I base this on late Sept early October SSTA of the Pacific AND the Atlantic as well as other factors. ENSO sometimes doesn't add up well but so be it.

Here is the winter composite (dec-march) using those years.

Winters overall are average.

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Options Selected for plot

Variable: Temperature Type: Average Anomaly Season: Dec to Mar Number year(s) in composite: 9 Years in composite: 1950 1964 1968 1970 1988 1999 2000 2001 2008 Climatology base period: 1950-2007 Contour Interval: default White for central values: yes Date submitted: 10/16/2011 at 14:59<div align="left"><a href='http://www.doc.gov/' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>U.S. Department of Commerce</a> | <a href='http://www.noaa.gov/' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a> <a href='http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>Earth System Research Laboratory</a> | <a href='http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>Physical Sciences Division</a> <a href='http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://www.esrl.noaa...divs/climdiv.pl</a></div><div align="right"><a href='http://www.noaa.gov/privacy.html' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>Privacy Policy</a> | <a href='http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/about/accessibility.html' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>Accessibility</a> | <a href='http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/disclaimer/' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>Disclaimer</a> | <a href='http://www.usa.gov/' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>USA.gov</a> <a href='http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/about/contacts.html' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>Contact Us</a> | Webmaster <a href='http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/site_index.html' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>Site Index</a></div>

So I'm playing 52 pickup and see what I can come up with.

I think there are some ominous signs for snow lovers right now. Snow cover and ice are lagging particularly in Eurasia. While we may well be in a long term negative NAO regime and most assuredly a negative PDO period, NAO may not cooperate as much this year given some early signs.

Many have touted the gradient pattern and that fits most La Nina seasons. However the strength of this Nina is going to trump 2008-09 so while that is probably the best analog year, I need to be careful.

So my forecast is very different than most and since I'm not predicting heavy snow outside of the usual spots, I expect to be pilloried. I don't give a f u c k.

I believe December will begin very mild and the above normal regime will dominate most of the month. Cold periods in the 2nd and last week may give some hope but any snow will be quickly erased by the above normal pattern.

January should turn cold and hold cold most of the month and I suspect for most of us, 75% of our seasonal snow will occur then. February should turn mild again until the final week and March actually may be a decent winter month.

Temperatures:

DEC: +4

JAN: -2

FEB: +2

MAR: -4

Snow...major climo centers, Kevin, Steve, Pete, Will, Ray, major climo centers:

BOS: 31 inches

PVD: 28 inches

BDL: 36 inches

ORH: 56 inches

GINX: 33 inches

GC: 340 inches

RAY: 53 inches

REV: 42 inches..

Phil on the Cape: 19 inches

Rindge: 75 inches

Hubb Dave: 49 inches

Northern New England: Decent but not spectacular year.

Sorry friends, I hope I'm wrong but I suspect I won't be. October has disappointed in so many ways. We're fooked. Squirrels are not fat and neither is the cryosphere.

New forecast......the tub squirrel I saw seals the deal. Cryosphere now robust too.

Everyone 150-200% of normal... :snowman:

Ginx snewx · November 3, 2011

New forecast......the tub squirrel I saw seals the deal. Cryosphere now robust too.

Everyone 150-200% of normal...

Look man not for nothing AIT the Grandmaster Flash is in the fookin house, the Party is on like donkey kong. SHOT HOUR

WeatherX · November 3, 2011

Had a feeling you were going to come around, Jerry. All signs are pointing to another edition of Ginxxx's La Epic. The squirrel photos today just cemented it.....

CoastalWx · November 3, 2011

Good for your Canadian prairies arctic high fetish.

I want that arm of high pressure to reach over NNE and beat me down senseless.

CoastalWx · November 3, 2011

Good for your Canadian prairies arctic high fetish.

You want those highs that retreat just enough for your 060-090 upslope nudity.

Ginx snewx · November 3, 2011

Had a feeling you were going to come around, Jerry. All signs are pointing to another edition of Ginxxx's La Epic. The squirrel photos today just cemented it.....

It's Novie 2 and I am already 12 behind Will 17 Hubb, triple X CNE NNE winter incoming.

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Weathafella official winter forecast...supercedes all prior guesses

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