HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Good luck with your forecast. Interesting juxtaposition compared to last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Interesting juxtaposition compared to last year What did he forecast for last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Interesting juxtaposition compared to last year Interestingly 70/71 is my analog year which is one of his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 What did he forecast for last year? http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/240313-new-england-snowfall-contest/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 340" - lol. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Interestingly 70/71 is my analog year which is one of his. 112" here that season. 3 of Gerry's analogs were over the 100" mark and one at 91", the others, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Interestingly 70/71 is my analog year which is one of his. Great Dec that year..I remember it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 70-71 was a huge winter for NNE i thought otherwise, terrible news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 70-71 was a huge winter for NNE i thought otherwise, terrible news. 140-165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 What did he forecast for last year? Last year Jerry, Ginxy, and MRG were the three amigos calling for big winter Big vicious winter incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 70-71 was a huge winter for NNE i thought otherwise, terrible news. It was, The best here, Its in my sig..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 70-71 was a huge winter for NNE i thoughtotherwise, terrible news. You'll do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 BOS: 31 inches PVD: 28 inches BDL: 36 inches ORH: 56 inches GINX: 33 inches GC: 340 inches RAY: 53 inches REV: 42 inches.. Phil on the Cape: 19 inches Rindge: 75 inches Hubb Dave: 49 inches Good to hear you mention that NAO multi-decadal signal; most don't, which I think is a mistake. 31" at BOS, wow - that's seem hard to do to me. It more than seems over the last 10 years that when it snows, it snows above the pale - albeit brief at times. I could almost see BOS getting 40" out of 3 well timed bombs (so to speak, or even heaving front end loaders); then the usual March surprise really serving in this sort of season. It could be warmer than normal for this latitude and still do that, too - there's always that. Having said that, there are plenty of snow starved years in the samples. I wonder how many snow depressions took place while signs were all positive, i.e., busted? The negative test may be just as telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 140-165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It was, The best here, Its in my sig..... 70-71 was PWM's best, too, though their 141.5" doesn't come quite to your total. That was merely an average winter for northern Maine, as the big December storms fringed the areas well north of BGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Good luck Jerry. I have 60-65" for BOS, about double your call. We'll see how it plays out. Probability wise we have an equal chance for above/below normal snowfall each year; the past few winters don't make us any more likely to have a terrible one. Based on the major players I don't think it'll be this year. Hope you're wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Good luck Jerry. I have 60-65" for BOS, about double your call. We'll see how it plays out. Probability wise we have an equal chance for above/below normal snowfall each year; the past few winters don't make us any more likely to have a terrible one. Based on the major players I don't think it'll be this year. Hope you're wrong! Hope you are right Jerry has a sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Hope you are right Jerry has a sense... Didnt Jerry nail last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Didnt Jerry nail last year? Pretty much. He, Ginxy, and MRG(surprise surprise) were unwavering in their call for big,big winter incoming... big winter Now, Jerry stands alone, a schism of epic proportions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Once I issued the forecast, I saw all the ways it could bust. However, I continue to stand by it. If I bust we're all happy. I honestly called what I think will transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Once I issued the forecast, I saw all the ways it could bust. However, I continue to stand by it. If I bust we're all happy. I honestly called what I think will transpire. tell me other people didn't think what I'm thinking now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 tell me other people didn't think what I'm thinking now? What are you thinking now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Once I issued the forecast, I saw all the ways it could bust. However, I continue to stand by it. If I bust we're all happy. I honestly called what I think will transpire. Hi Jerry, What is it you are seeing that leads you to your forecast? Just curious.....your gut counts of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Hi Jerry, What is it you are seeing that leads you to your forecast? Just curious.....your gut counts of course. Hi John. Overall, I am dismayed at the northern Pacific SSTA. When I issued I was also dismayed by the cryosphere but that has recovered nicely. The loading pattern now blows dead rats. Finally, scrawny squirrels. And the analog years include some bad winters. That said, there is huge bust potential and this is a low confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Hi John. Overall, I am dismayed at the northern Pacific SSTA. When I issued I was also dismayed by the cryosphere but that has recovered nicely. The loading pattern now blows dead rats. Finally, scrawny squirrels. And the analog years include some bad winters. That said, there is huge bust potential and this is a low confidence forecast. Yayyyy! And the squirrels here are passing up acorns because they are so chubby... Far fewer acorns than last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Hi John. Overall, I am dismayed at the northern Pacific SSTA. When I issued I was also dismayed by the cryosphere but that has recovered nicely. The loading pattern now blows dead rats. Finally, scrawny squirrels. And the analog years include some bad winters. That said, there is huge bust potential and this is a low confidence forecast. Has the NPAC SSTA really looked great though since the PDO flipped? I mean it seems to shift a bit from year to year, but I doubt that is really calling our shots. What is this? (loading pattern) I'd like to understand this better....The rest is of course just gut feeling. I am loving the parade of systems which like to dive in and get cutoff, frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Has the NPAC SSTA really looked great though since the PDO flipped? I mean it seems to shift a bit from year to year, but I doubt that is really calling our shots. What is this? (loading pattern) I'd like to understand this better....The rest is of course just gut feeling. I am loving the parade of systems which like to dive in and get cutoff, frankly. 9/20 NPAC was way better last year. Perhaps one reason for an epic season? If you follow me over the past 2 years, you see that I put a lot of stock into the NPAC ssta. I could be blowing smoke out my arse but the loading pattern is for under performing cold to date. We need a big shift and it could happen but I don't think it will. All LR is in part gut with a heavy dose of best guess with an unscientifically valid sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 9/20 NPAC was way better last year. Perhaps one reason for an epic season? If you follow me over the past 2 years, you see that I put a lot of stock into the NPAC ssta. I could be blowing smoke out my arse but the loading pattern is for under performing cold to date. We need a big shift and it could happen but I don't think it will. All LR is in part gut with a heavy dose of best guess with an unscientifically valid sample size. Oh I see, especially GOA anomalies. Interestingly enough, Atlantic tri-pole looks a little better this year than last at this point and we will need that down here in your old stomping grounds more than you northerners will. It's all about the NAO/AO once again... It'll be fun when the first flakes do end up falling, it's always a special day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I would have to side with weathafella, I am not getting a good vide this year. I think sne will have to deal with being on the warm side this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I also agree with weatherfella's outlook. I would perhaps go colder on overall temps, but overall New England will have below average snow. NIce job on your outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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