Weathafella official winter forecast...supercedes all prior guesses

weathafella · October 16, 2011

Analog years:

1950-51, 1964-65, 1968-69, 1970-71, 1988-89, 1999-00, 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09. Thankfully, the weakest of the list are 1999-00 and 2001-02. I base this on late Sept early October SSTA of the Pacific AND the Atlantic as well as other factors. ENSO sometimes doesn't add up well but so be it.

Here is the winter composite (dec-march) using those years.

Winters overall are average.

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cd24.218.216.222.288.14.59.0.prcp.png Get a copy of the data used in the plot Get a CSV copy of the data used in the plot in an Excel and GIS usable format. [shapefile link] Get postscript version of plot

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Variable: Temperature Type: Average Anomaly Season: Dec to Mar Number year(s) in composite: 9 Years in composite: 1950 1964 1968 1970 1988 1999 2000 2001 2008 Climatology base period: 1950-2007 Contour Interval: default White for central values: yes Date submitted: 10/16/2011 at 14:59

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory | Physical Sciences Division http://www.esrl.noaa...divs/climdiv.pl

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So I'm playing 52 pickup and see what I can come up with.

I think there are some ominous signs for snow lovers right now. Snow cover and ice are lagging particularly in Eurasia. While we may well be in a long term negative NAO regime and most assuredly a negative PDO period, NAO may not cooperate as much this year given some early signs.

Many have touted the gradient pattern and that fits most La Nina seasons. However the strength of this Nina is going to trump 2008-09 so while that is probably the best analog year, I need to be careful.

So my forecast is very different than most and since I'm not predicting heavy snow outside of the usual spots, I expect to be pilloried. I don't give a f u c k.

I believe December will begin very mild and the above normal regime will dominate most of the month. Cold periods in the 2nd and last week may give some hope but any snow will be quickly erased by the above normal pattern.

January should turn cold and hold cold most of the month and I suspect for most of us, 75% of our seasonal snow will occur then. February should turn mild again until the final week and March actually may be a decent winter month.

Temperatures:

DEC: +4

JAN: -2

FEB: +2

MAR: -4

Snow...major climo centers, Kevin, Steve, Pete, Will, Ray, major climo centers:

BOS: 31 inches

PVD: 28 inches

BDL: 36 inches

ORH: 56 inches

GINX: 33 inches

GC: 340 inches

RAY: 53 inches

REV: 42 inches..

Phil on the Cape: 19 inches

Rindge: 75 inches

Hubb Dave: 49 inches

Northern New England: Decent but not spectacular year.

Sorry friends, I hope I'm wrong but I suspect I won't be. October has disappointed in so many ways. We're fooked. Squirrels are not fat and neither is the cryosphere.

CoastalWx · October 16, 2011

Endless summer.

weathafella · October 16, 2011

Endless summer.

That was a cult movie from about 40 years ago.

ski MRG · October 16, 2011

Got my 340", fook the rest of ya.

weathafella · October 16, 2011

Got my 340", fook the rest of ya.

Buy the extra beds for the flatlander crew now.....we're coming over.

CoastalWx · October 16, 2011

That was a cult movie from about 40 years ago.

I could check myself, but that temp composite doesn't look as bad as the snowfall indicates.

weathafella · October 16, 2011

I could check myself, but that temp composite doesn't look as bad as the snowfall indicates.

I think we'll come close to those temps but timing will suck. High bust potential acknowledged but let's face it, we're due for a stinker.

CoastalWx · October 16, 2011

I think we'll come close to those temps but timing will suck. High bust potential acknowledged but let's face it, we're due for a stinker.

Well we are..I agree. I guess I'm just not too worried about a stinker..but what do I know at this juncture.

weathafella · October 16, 2011

Well we are..I agree. I guess I'm just not too worried about a stinker..but what do I know at this juncture.

Probably alot more than me...lol...

CoastalWx · October 16, 2011

Probably alot more than me...lol...

Well I'm not a big long range guy to be honest...lol. Hey..it's a forecast. If you're wrong...I'm sure you still will be happy.

weathafella · October 16, 2011

Here's the precip anomalies for the analog years..

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Research

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cd24.218.216.222.288.15.26.33.prcp.png Get a copy of the data used in the plot Get a CSV copy of the data used in the plot in an Excel and GIS usable format. [shapefile link] Get postscript version of plot

Options Selected for plot

Variable: Precipitation Type: Average Anomaly Season: Dec to Mar Number year(s) in composite: 9 Years in composite: 1950 1964 1968 1970 1988 1999 2000 2001 2008 Climatology base period: 1950-2007 Contour Interval: default White for central values: yes Date submitted: 10/16/2011 at 15:26

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory | Physical Sciences Division http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/usclimdivs/climdiv.pl

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CoastalWx · October 16, 2011

We had some dry periods in those years...both cold/dry and warm/dry.

weathafella · October 16, 2011

We had some dry periods in those years...both cold/dry and warm/dry.

I should correlate autumns. 1988-89 was cold and bone dry. The late 90s and of course 2001-02 as well. We have the sun on our side this year but I don't see alot of help from it this year but that's what is preventing snow totals in my mind being way lower.

HoarfrostHubb · October 16, 2011

Wow. Will and Ray beat me

It is what it is

Heck of a gradient. 75" for Rindge, 49" for me just a little south

Oof

Analog96 · October 16, 2011

I should correlate autumns. 1988-89 was cold and bone dry. The late 90s and of course 2001-02 as well. We have the sun on our side this year but I don't see alot of help from it this year but that's what is preventing snow totals in my mind being way lower.

It's hard to believe we'll see a long-term dry pattern, given what's been going on lately.

weathafella · October 16, 2011

Wow. Will and Ray beat me

It is what it is

Heck of a gradient. 75" for Rindge, 49" for me just a little south

Oof

What's your snow average? How far south of you from Rindge?

HoarfrostHubb · October 16, 2011

What's your snow average? How far south of you from Rindge?

I think I average around 75" (based on Will)

15 miles south of Rindge... 1000' asl

but hey, I'm worried, too

weathafella · October 16, 2011

I think I average around 75" (based on Will)

15 miles south of Rindge... 1000' asl

but hey, I'm worried, too

I would revise you up to 65 then. Somehow my geography was fubarred.

ski MRG · October 16, 2011

Buy the extra beds for the flatlander crew now.....we're coming over.

Always plenty of room here in GC.

Damage In Tolland · October 16, 2011

Nah

SnowMan · October 17, 2011

Well I'm not a big long range guy to be honest...lol. Hey..it's a forecast. If you're wrong...I'm sure you still will be happy.

Unless he is wrong in the wrong direction and his numbers are too high...

weathafella · October 17, 2011

Last year, I had other big callers. This year, I think I'm alone at least for this area.

weathafella · October 17, 2011

The forecast is what it is. Long term Euro is wintry today.

OKpowdah · October 17, 2011

I think we'll come close to those temps but timing will suck. High bust potential acknowledged but let's face it, we're due for a stinker.

Great meteorology

HoarfrostHubb · October 17, 2011

Great meteorology

he gave several legit reasons...

I just think the warmth will continue and it will dry up.

Maybe Feb, March will be big, but Dec, Jan might blow

weatherMA · October 17, 2011

he gave several legit reasons...

I just think the warmth will continue and it will dry up.

Maybe Feb, March will be big, but Dec, Jan might blow

Maybe, possibly.

OKpowdah · October 17, 2011

he gave several legit reasons...

I just think the warmth will continue and it will dry up.

Maybe Feb, March will be big, but Dec, Jan might blow

lol I know. But I always have to interject when he uses "due for" as a reason

Ginx snewx · October 17, 2011

Good luck with your forecast.

weathafella · October 17, 2011

Good luck with your forecast.

If I'm wrong I won't be crying...lol

Ginx snewx · October 17, 2011

If I'm wrong I won't be crying...lol

I am hoping like Ryans last years forecast, your total for me is my max depth!

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Weathafella official winter forecast...supercedes all prior guesses

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