Gastonwxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 120 hr. Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If only that low could trend a lil bit more to the west , then we'd really be in business! The NW trend is our friend. I love the position of the low considering we are 6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 120 hr. Saturday: Wish that low would be a tad sout and east but at least it still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Wish that low would be a tad sout and east but at least it still has it. And now it has taken it OTS by the looks of it if I'm correct that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 And now it has taken it OTS by the looks of it if I'm correct that is. sure does. Anyone want to chime in on how the low going OTS would effect us in the carolinas? I know it screws the NE and mid atl but does it bode well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Is the same low at 144hr in the GOM, the same one that is shown being out to sea? Is it a progression from where it originated from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks almost identical to the GGEM. I know it doesnt mean much but I wont lose much sleep knowing we arent in the bullseye this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 And how did the euro look for the midweek system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 All I know is what someone posted on the NY sub forum "hr 96 has lgt precip to bout dc, ice for northern nc and southern va" Does anyone else know the specifics for midweek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 All I know is what someone posted on the NY sub forum "hr 96 has lgt precip to bout dc, ice for northern nc and southern va" Does anyone else know the specifics for midweek? Ice with 850s at -4? Yeah right. This is why we don't go to other subforums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is actually right where we want it at this point, maybe a little more suppressed than currently progged, but much better than an EC bomb that rakes the MA and NE. Southern slider, and OTS... Remember, most sig winter storms that impact the SE, are not your typical east coast riders. Take this as a win in the 7 day, not in the bullseye, an ots track, and looks rather weak, which can be a great thing given waa and warm noses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is actually right where we want it at this point, maybe a little more suppressed than currently progged, but much better than an EC bomb that rakes the MA and NE. Southern slider, and OTS... Remember, most sig winter storms that impact the SE, are not your typical east coast riders. Take this as a win in the 7 day, not in the bullseye, an ots track, and looks rather weak, which can be a great thing given waa and warm noses. I guess the trend is our friend or at least I hope so in this situation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is actually right where we want it at this point, maybe a little more suppressed than currently progged, but much better than an EC bomb that rakes the MA and NE. Southern slider, and OTS... Remember, most sig winter storms that impact the SE, are not your typical east coast riders. Take this as a win in the 7 day, not in the bullseye, an ots track, and looks rather weak, which can be a great thing given waa and warm noses. Yep. We learned about this from the previous winter when things were seemingly horrible, only to get something decent out of a wintry hit in the latter. My thought is that it'll keep this for another day and then start trending back to the original solution. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is actually right where we want it at this point, maybe a little more suppressed than currently progged, but much better than an EC bomb that rakes the MA and NE. Southern slider, and OTS... Remember, most sig winter storms that impact the SE, are not your typical east coast riders. Take this as a win in the 7 day, not in the bullseye, an ots track, and looks rather weak, which can be a great thing given waa and warm noses. I agree...I was just over in the main forum reading in the 0z model thread and I think I was the only one happy w/ this solution. Whenever we get a wrapped up storm usually we have all sorts of ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Ice with 850s at -4? Yeah right. This is why we don't go to other subforums. hes talking about the midweek system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I agree...I was just over in the main forum reading in the 0z model thread and I think I was the only one happy w/ this solution. Whenever we get a wrapped up storm usually we have all sorts of ptype issues. But in reality, at-least from what the ens means are showing at this point, this could very well be another EC bomb that the MA and NE folks cream over. Similar to the Dec 19th event last year, one which I had the fortune of chasing to Lynchburg Va. Modeled similarly in the 7 day, an ots track, but ended up being a monster for interior portions of VA. With the negative AO and NAO overwhelming the pattern, but lacking the stj, one has to think the SE is in game at this point, and if not with this, going forward during the rest of the month, given last year and the same general setup; PV locked into Nova Scotia, and sig high latitude blocking shifting the mean storm tracks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hes talking about the midweek system The poster in this thread worded it as though he was talking about Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 So, to those with access to the Euro, what did Dr. No say about the midweek system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 But in reality, at-least from what the ens means are showing at this point, this could very well be another EC bomb that the MA and NE folks cream over. Similar to the Dec 19th event last year, one which I had the fortune of chasing to Lynchburg Va. Modeled similarly in the 7 day, an ots track, but ended up being a monster for interior portions of VA. With the negative AO and NAO overwhelming the pattern, but lacking the stj, one has to think the SE is in game at this point, and if not with this, going forward during the rest of the month, given last year and the same general setup; PV locked into Nova Scotia, and sig high latitude blocking shifting the mean storm tracks south. Which one is looking better overall for the SE right now, the GGEM or the Euro? I think I saw someone in another thread, saying they looked similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Which one is looking better overall for the SE right now, the GGEM or the Euro? I think I saw someone in another thread, saying they looked similar. One would try to figure out the HPC's blend for the early pm final extended disco, based on yesterdays thoughts, and there bias towards the EC, a ECMWF-GGEM blend, given the ensemble support, which I have not seen for the 0z runs, but would imagine it is there if the GFS ens is any indication... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 But in reality, at-least from what the ens means are showing at this point, this could very well be another EC bomb that the MA and NE folks cream over. Similar to the Dec 19th event last year, one which I had the fortune of chasing to Lynchburg Va. Modeled similarly in the 7 day, an ots track, but ended up being a monster for interior portions of VA. With the negative AO and NAO overwhelming the pattern, but lacking the stj, one has to think the SE is in game at this point, and if not with this, going forward during the rest of the month, given last year and the same general setup; PV locked into Nova Scotia, and sig high latitude blocking shifting the mean storm tracks south. I agree, this could be a bomb. If it does turn out that way I hope it is far enough to the east where we don't have mixing issue. Like I said earlier, right now I'm glad the models are showing a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Hmm...very interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The potential weekend system is very much up in the air, and a lot of it has to do with the handling of the eastern Canadian vortex. Here is the 0z Euro for 12z Sat....notice the position of the vortex at 500mb in SE Canada. Uploaded with ImageShack.us And here is the 0z GFS at 12z Sat. Notice the vortex is much farther west, and that allows our disturbance to amplify in time for a significant winter storm for parts of the SE. Yesterday's 12z Euro also had the vortex further west. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Great disco folks!!! Looking forward to tearing these two apart model by model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The potential weekend system is very much up in the air, and a lot of it has to do with the handling of the eastern Canadian vortex. Here is the 0z Euro for 12z Sat....notice the position of the vortex at 500mb in SE Canada. Uploaded with ImageShack.us And here is the 0z GFS at 12z Sat. Notice the vortex is much farther west, and that allows our disturbance to amplify in time for a significant winter storm for parts of the SE. Yesterday's 12z Euro also had the vortex further west. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Good video this morning Matthew! Let the model waffling begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Thanks! Yeah, fast flow, Pacific disturbances.... chance of model madness: 100% Good video this morning Matthew! Let the model waffling begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yep great video especially explaining the PV and how it plays it's part. The damn thing kept giving us fits last year for the CLT area. Hopefully it complies and we get a great week of winter weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It was definitely a challenge last year...seems we had a tough time getting the positioning just right. Maybe we will get it this time around.... Yep great video especially explaining the PV and how it plays it's part. The damn thing kept giving us fits last year for the CLT area. Hopefully it complies and we get a great week of winter weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm already much more encouraged with what I'm seeing for this weekend compared to what we just had, at least in terms of the snow potential. The GFS did very well with this current system, let's see how it does with the next one. As long as we can get the cold air support. Looking at the 06Z GFS it looks like for us in the CAD areas, it could be a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 6z GFS has a lot of moisture with it, but the cold air doesn't dive far enough south to give widespread snow across the SE. At least based off of what i'm seeing. Except for areas a lil west of 85 and north of I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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