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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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skipping the Wed night/Thurs event, theres a big one brewing on todays 12Z euro. It has a classic Gulf track with cold to the north. Snow spreads across the Deep South and through northern GA to most of the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday, up the coast as a big Noreaster. It doesn't get any better than that, but we have a long ways to go to reel it in. Beyond it, more cold air dump and the vortex in the northeast stays put. Its almost too good to be true pattern. Maybe our version of last year's Unreal Midatlantic Bombs.

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Euro is to warm for Wed/Thurs but it has a monster of a storm for eastern parts of NC on Sat/Sun.

still think its 2m temps are way off mark then. I do love the looks of the storm next weekend. its a beautiful track . We have to watch and see if the Vortex in the Northaeast helps us or hurts us , we don't want to miss it to the south and east, but it could. Then again it could nail us in a 85 special.

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still think its 2m temps are way off mark then. I do love the looks of the storm next weekend. its a beautiful track . We have to watch and see if the Vortex in the Northaeast helps us or hurts us , we don't want to miss it to the south and east, but it could. Then again it could nail us in a 85 special.

This is the one JB has been talking about for two weeks, maybe he was right

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still think its 2m temps are way off mark then. I do love the looks of the storm next weekend. its a beautiful track . We have to watch and see if the Vortex in the Northaeast helps us or hurts us , we don't want to miss it to the south and east, but it could. Then again it could nail us in a 85 special.

what do you think about Asheville tonight and tomorrow? Any amounts of snow there?

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skipping the Wed night/Thurs event, theres a big one brewing on todays 12Z euro. It has a classic Gulf track with cold to the north. Snow spreads across the Deep South and through northern GA to most of the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday, up the coast as a big Noreaster. It doesn't get any better than that, but we have a long ways to go to reel it in. Beyond it, more cold air dump and the vortex in the northeast stays put. Its almost too good to be true pattern. Maybe our version of last year's Unreal Midatlantic Bombs.

Wow posted at the same time. Hopefully by the time it comes it can slam us instead of the usual.

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Killer. so we are talking 6 days out.....That is nice..

skipping the Wed night/Thurs event, theres a big one brewing on todays 12Z euro. It has a classic Gulf track with cold to the north. Snow spreads across the Deep South and through northern GA to most of the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday, up the coast as a big Noreaster. It doesn't get any better than that, but we have a long ways to go to reel it in. Beyond it, more cold air dump and the vortex in the northeast stays put. Its almost too good to be true pattern. Maybe our version of last year's Unreal Midatlantic Bombs.

Slam!!

Wow posted at the same time. Hopefully by the time it comes it can slam us instead of the usual.

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what do you think about Asheville tonight and tomorrow? Any amounts of snow there?

Yeah it looks like the snow this afternoon will probably get them, with more west flow, then it turns nw tomorrow, with some snow showers, but usually the city itself doesn't do good with upslope, but north of the city like weaverville and Mars Hill get a couple of inche. Its always hard to say downtown gets snow in Upslope , they usually get blocked, but sometimes a band does make it there with 1 to 2" in a hurry.

On the Wed night and Thurs..the Euro has been following suit for 3 runs of the GFS with more vortex in the northeast, and bringing precip in a little faster, further south, and keeping it colder, further south, for longer. Yet it still looks too warm at 96 at the surface. A couple days ago it had western NC at +8 aloft, and low 50's at surface, then yesterdays run I think knocked that down some, and todays knocks it down some more..speaking of the Thursday time frame. So the trend here is that the next s/w coming in around the vortex will help keep the cold air locked in the Carolinas longer, I think. I'm not 100% positive and there will be a strong gradient in temps somewhere between ATL and RDU. But all runs have been keeping the northern third of NC subfreezing throughout the event, so you guys are going to get iced over good if enough precip makes it there, which I think it will at this point. Down to CLT and western NC, Upstate SC its too far out to say , but a start to some snow is probable about everywhere north of Columbia, imo. before transition.

The big dog is weekend, but that could come and go, or be supressed. If all works out, then it would be a great snowstorm for part of the SE. Usually, when high latitude blocking retrogrades, like the models have doing, something good happens Wintery precip -wise for the Southeast. The hard to believe part is the Euro seems locked in with the overall pattern even extrapolating beyond 10 days. So the pattern may be a repetitve one.

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There seems to be a gulf low on the Euro. Strength and position of the cold air is subject to concern for my area (Atlanta).

Yeah it looks very interesting for sure. The GFS just shows us cool and dry so things are going to fluctuate quite a bit before we get there.

EDIT: Good find Burrel. The 12Z GFS ensemble mean looks a lot more interesting

12zgfsensemblep12144.gif

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skipping the Wed night/Thurs event, theres a big one brewing on todays 12Z euro. It has a classic Gulf track with cold to the north. Snow spreads across the Deep South and through northern GA to most of the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday, up the coast as a big Noreaster. It doesn't get any better than that, but we have a long ways to go to reel it in. Beyond it, more cold air dump and the vortex in the northeast stays put. Its almost too good to be true pattern. Maybe our version of last year's Unreal Midatlantic Bombs.

Euro has had this system for 3-4 runs now has it not?

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Euro has had this system for 3-4 runs now has it not?

you mean the Thursday system? or weekend. I think you mean weekend, yes I think 3 now. Not positive. If its mishandling the closed block in Canada or the northeast Vortex, then the southern system could easily be supressed or squashed all together, and we'd be left just sunny and cold. Really too far out yet to trust anything.

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Yeah it looks like the snow this afternoon will probably get them, with more west flow, then it turns nw tomorrow, with some snow showers, but usually the city itself doesn't do good with upslope, but north of the city like weaverville and Mars Hill get a couple of inche. Its always hard to say downtown gets snow in Upslope , they usually get blocked, but sometimes a band does make it there with 1 to 2" in a hurry.

On the Wed night and Thurs..the Euro has been following suit for 3 runs of the GFS with more vortex in the northeast, and bringing precip in a little faster, further south, and keeping it colder, further south, for longer. Yet it still looks too warm at 96 at the surface. A couple days ago it had western NC at +8 aloft, and low 50's at surface, then yesterdays run I think knocked that down some, and todays knocks it down some more..speaking of the Thursday time frame. So the trend here is that the next s/w coming in around the vortex will help keep the cold air locked in the Carolinas longer, I think. I'm not 100% positive and there will be a strong gradient in temps somewhere between ATL and RDU. But all runs have been keeping the northern third of NC subfreezing throughout the event, so you guys are going to get iced over good if enough precip makes it there, which I think it will at this point. Down to CLT and western NC, Upstate SC its too far out to say , but a start to some snow is probable about everywhere north of Columbia, imo. before transition.

The big dog is weekend, but that could come and go, or be supressed. If all works out, then it would be a great snowstorm for part of the SE. Usually, when high latitude blocking retrogrades, like the models have doing, something good happens Wintery precip -wise for the Southeast. The hard to believe part is the Euro seems locked in with the overall pattern even extrapolating beyond 10 days. So the pattern may be a repetitve one.

The weekend situation is very interesting in which the highlighted bold part says it the absolute best. That's where the absolute BEST POTENTIAL comes about. The block depicted does retrograde west to a position in Hudson Bay which is about ideal for Eastern GOM cyclogenesis. s/w's have to round the base and instead of seeing them blow up out to sea with the block further east, they round underneath into the GOM and position of the block allows the low to come up the coast.

It's peaked my interest.

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