December 14th and onward discussion thread

[burgertime]

It's been a long time since anything but classic has performed. Sure, some zr/ip at the onset, but rain otherwise.

It's going to be a disaster, we'll have 14 inches of snow while you're stuck with a lousy foot of it.

[GaWx]

very much agree Larry. Entertainment here as well. Sure would be nice to get a Gulf low though, would hate to miss one to the south and east again. Even if its rain, I want a good precip event.

Robert,

That Euro run with the historic KATL Dec snowstorm of 5-7" on 12/7-8/10 was the 11/30/10 0Z run. So, just like today's 12Z Euro's sig. SE snow (for some areas), it was 7-8 days out. Regardless, the entertainment value makes it fun..the key is to not take it too seriously.

[DopplerWx]

The weathercasters here are getting into the bitter cold expected here. One station said 38 Monday, 39 Tuesday. The average high in Charleston this time of year is a balmy 62. Many areas will get down into the teens at night Monday or Tuesday.

Yeah the cold has been ruthless. Had to go out and buy a beanie today, my hoodie wasn't cutting it. Should be interesting to see how cold it does get Monday and Monday night though. The wind will be whipping at 25-30 mph and when you add in a daily high of 38 and a low that night in the teens the wind chill will be ridiculous.

[TheVille]

It's going to be a disaster, we'll have 14 inches of snow while you're stuck with a lousy foot of it.

Boy ole Boy would I love 14 inches

[POWERSTROKE]

hopefully we will get some accumulating snow

[Gastonwxman]

0z Euro at the end shows a 999mb low tracking through the SE during the week of Christmas. This could be that wintry threat someone on here mentioned earlier for the 21st-22nd period (think it was WeatherNC or FoothillsNC). I'm thinking that during this timeframe, chances for snow outside the mountains in the South will be better after getting rid of these issues with systems getting mega suppressed or cutting too far to the north. We'll see. Depends on if we can get the PNA to act right while still keeping a decent -NAO hanging around.

[Rankin5150]

This mornings 06Z NAM and GFS are showing that ZR look more than ever for this Weds timeframe. In the extended, it shows some snow chances around 100+ hours. One thing that interests me is that the cold relaxes to a certain degree, but reloads again. I keep seeing signs of something brewing for 12-22 timeframe. We may get lucky this year SE peeps.

[burgertime]

234 Euro FTW. If that were to happen verbatim we would be buried in snow here in NC.

[strongwxnc]

Dan in Marion reported 3" this morning!

quote name='Jalba' timestamp='1292157411' post='96325']

I wonder if the "Light Snow" report from Morganton is correct. Its with that last final line associated with this line of rain. Wondering if we get a flurry off of that.

[oconeexman]

I wonder if the "Light Snow" report from Morganton is correct. Its with that last final line associated with this line of rain. Wondering if we get a flurry off of that.

as Kvegas said, here's the pic morganton

[NCBlizzard]

234 Euro FTW. If that were to happen verbatim we would be buried in snow here in NC.

agreed. It looks beautiful too bad its 230-240 hours out

[burgertime]

The 12z NAM at 84hrs ( I know, I know) is looking close to snow for us instead of ZR. We should really be watching that event as we might get surprised .

[FoothillsNC]

The 12z NAM at 84hrs ( I know, I know) is looking close to snow for us instead of ZR. We should really be watching that event as we might get surprised .

that event still has my attention too. What usually happens with this type of event, which again is rare so not too many to go on, but the zonal flow will streak a narrow band of moisture well east ahead of the main warm advection. I won't be surprised to see a narrow ribbon of precip (snow) stretching from Little Rock to Charlotte at the same time (rain LIT though) by midnight Wed night.Right now the models are really evaporating the moisture before hitting the ground on this side of the Apps. The one big thing is the vortex in NYC region stays put longer than progged, meaning we still have cold air, and the cold air lingers much longer than the models show, esp. at the surface, esp in a NW flow situation, esp in a blocked atmosphere, esp. with a vortex so incredibly strong.

[NCBlizzard]

that event still has my attention too. What usually happens with this type of event, which again is rare so not too many to go on, but the zonal flow will streak a narrow band of moisture well east ahead of the main warm advection. I won't be surprised to see a narrow ribbon of precip (snow) stretching from Little Rock to Charlotte at the same time (rain LIT though) by midnight Wed night.Right now the models are really evaporating the moisture before hitting the ground on this side of the Apps. The one big thing is the vortex in NYC region stays put longer than progged, meaning we still have cold air, and the cold air lingers much longer than the models show, esp. at the surface, esp in a NW flow situation, esp in a blocked atmosphere, esp. with a vortex so incredibly strong.

maybe us hear that missed out on the clipper and look to miss out on todays event can finally get something from this.

[burgertime]

that event still has my attention too. What usually happens with this type of event, which again is rare so not too many to go on, but the zonal flow will streak a narrow band of moisture well east ahead of the main warm advection. I won't be surprised to see a narrow ribbon of precip (snow) stretching from Little Rock to Charlotte at the same time (rain LIT though) by midnight Wed night.Right now the models are really evaporating the moisture before hitting the ground on this side of the Apps. The one big thing is the vortex in NYC region stays put longer than progged, meaning we still have cold air, and the cold air lingers much longer than the models show, esp. at the surface, esp in a NW flow situation, esp in a blocked atmosphere, esp. with a vortex so incredibly strong.

I actually like it when we get a little ZR on snow...even though it causes a lot of problems there is nothing like walking on snow and hearing the ice crunch then dropping into it. Hopefully like you said that cold air stays around a little longer for us, it's certainly the first legit looking winter weather event for us. Hopefully it doesn't go *POOF* and we're left footing the bill once again.

[Weather Czar]

Off topic but did brick get banned again? Lol.. I would usually see about ten weenie post from him now with the setup for the next two weeks.

[burgertime]

Off topic but did brick get banned again? Lol.. I would usually see about ten weenie post from him now with the setup for the next two weeks.

lolz probably can only post once a week

[NCBlizzard]

Bastardi continues to mention the higher chance of a white Christmas further south with this pattern. He goes to mention the little winter storm we may have to deal with Thursday and says that their will be a bigger system 2-3 days later.

[Weather Czar]

Bastardi continues to mention the higher chance of a white Christmas further south with this pattern. He goes to mention the little winter storm we may have to deal with Thursday and says that their will be a bigger system 2-3 days later.

I think he is right, The next two weeks look great for winter weather in the south.

[Weather Czar]

This looks sweet!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

[FoothillsNC]

I hope about everyone can get something out of this rare blocked up pattern while we have it. You know it can't last too long before a big breakdown in the pattern. The retrograding block seen on Euro is a good sign, usually something memorable happens in the Southeast when that happens. But the models have had trouble up there, shifting things around, so its going to be hard to pin anything down this far in advance. But the next thing up for us to watch is Wed night and Thursday. The models seem to be trending colder in Tn/NC for that event, and maybe keeping it further south, as opposed to a lakes cutter, which with the vortex over New England is what should happen.

[Weather Czar]

I hope about everyone can get something out of this rare blocked up pattern while we have it. You know it can't last too long before a big breakdown in the pattern. The retrograding block seen on Euro is a good sign, usually something memorable happens in the Southeast when that happens. But the models have had trouble up there, shifting things around, so its going to be hard to pin anything down this far in advance. But the next thing up for us to watch is Wed night and Thursday. The models seem to be trending colder in Tn/NC for that event, and maybe keeping it further south, as opposed to a lakes cutter, which with the vortex over New England is what should happen.

This run up to Christmas is the best i have seen in a long time. Even better than last year. I think a lot of people are gonna have a white Christmas this year.

[sctvman]

55 here with heavy rain, I think we have reached our high for the day. It's gone down half a degree in 15 minutes.

[NCBlizzard]

This run up to Christmas is the best i have seen in a long time. Even better than last year. I think a lot of people are gonna have a white Christmas this year.

Yea I agree. Last year there was still some sleet in shaded areas on Christmas from the massive sleet storm we had here on the 19th. I would love to see snow everywhere though

[burgertime]

12Z GFS aint looking too shabby. Could get a good front end snow like Robert talked about if it were to verify. For me I just need that 850 line to drop about 60 miles to the south.

[NCBlizzard]

12Z GFS aint looking too shabby. Could get a good front end snow like Robert talked about if it were to verify. For me I just need that 850 line to drop about 60 miles to the south.

almost below freezing on the ground the entire event.

[Weather Czar]

12Z GFS aint looking too shabby. Could get a good front end snow like Robert talked about if it were to verify. For me I just need that 850 line to drop about 60 miles to the south.

I would think in future runs it will continue the south trend. With the storm and colder temps. The flow at 500 and 200 is mostly out of the NW then turns west. Never really comes from the southwest,so...

[markemark]

12Z GFS aint looking too shabby.

At least for now, the trend is our friend. The vortex is a bit deeper and holds on longer compared to 6z.

[RevDodd]

Granted, I'm fully aware that long-range models are more fickle than fashion models.

Also, I have only the knowledge of a hobbyist.

That said, it's hard not to get just a bit giddy, looking at today's 0Z GGEM mean, starting at about 156

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12156.gif

On to 204

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12204.gif

Unless, of course, I'm just reading way too much into the combination of cold and precip. I'd appreciate a second opinion.

Many thanks!

[FoothillsNC]

this event is similar to a few we had around 2004 or 2003, where from a distance the models trended colder, and should have done so based on the pattern. The key here is the GFS has a new strong s/w rounding through the Lakes at 60 to 72 hours, which feeds the main vortex over new England, wasn't there before. I don't know yet if thats right, but we've seen the new shortwaves come into the picture a lot last season when we weren't wanting one, in this case we DO want it, because it helps maintain the stationary Vortex, keeping the low level and upper level cold, and furthern south and west. All in all, like Raleigh said, its classic overrunning, its pretty light now, but these things can trend much wetter. I still don't see a strong high up there to keep the low levels cold, but synoptics argue the cold east of the Apps remains in place with the vortex where it is (good confluence). Stil time to watch if the models shift something, for example take too much moisture to our nw into Kentucky, like they were doing, but again the vortex may save us east of the Apps. Not that I want ice, but something interesting for a change to happen here would be nice. Could start as snow, but hard to say where that transistion would be, probably go to sleet quickly around upper SC and the southern border of NC, then to ZR. Still not a lot of qpf printed but some accumulations would def. be possible. I also think the slight speeding up is likely, there could be a stretch of precip all the way from Ok to NC by midnight Wed. night.