December 14th and onward discussion thread

[Jon]

Kinda off topic but check this out: http://www.wral.com/weather/story/8753444/

I guessed 1.2" as well for this contest, I guess she submitted before me...but oddly I remember typing in 0.8" the changing it last minute before I submitted. Who wouldn't want a Flyer sled autographed by the fish himself?

[burrel2]

It looks to me like the Euro is trying to develop a southern stream system in the gulf at 168hrs. It'll be interesting to see if it can amplify and come up through Florida over the next few frames.

[GaWx]

Fwiw, the 12Z Sat. Euro gives a good portion of the SE US sig. sticking snow 12/18 PM-12/19 AM.

Edit: sig. snow falls over central GA to as far north as Tony's abode and ENE to Athens, upper SE GA, most of SC except upstate, and the E 2/3 of NC.

[FoothillsNC]

Fwiw, the 12Z Sat. Euro gives a good portion of the SE US sig. sticking snow 12/18 PM-12/19 AM.

indeed it does. Its a nice setup up too, hope that 5H look is true, then we can worry about the Gulf low track later. Verbatim, it clocks eastern NC hard and goes up the coast as a strong noreaster...of course drops some snow further west in its infancy in Ga and SC as well.

[FoothillsNC]

the Midatlantic and NE crew are going to be drooling over this one. Has a classic monster snowstorm, originating in the northeast Gulf, just barely gets the eastern Carolinas (sorry western Carolinas-- misses your area this run) and then curves inland and stacks. major cold dump again to go with it. The euro has been awfully flimsy with wild changes , so I wouldn't get too excited on any Gulf storm yet .

[BIG FROSTY]

the Midatlantic and NE crew are going to be drooling over this one. Has a classic monster snowstorm, originating in the northeast Gulf, just barely gets the eastern Carolinas (sorry western Carolinas-- misses your area this run) and then curves inland and stacks. major cold dump again to go with it. The euro has been awfully flimsy with wild changes , so I wouldn't get too excited on any Gulf storm yet .

say it aint so !!! I want my snow too.

[GaWx]

The euro has been awfully flimsy with wild changes , so I wouldn't get too excited on any Gulf storm yet .

Robert,

This is almost purely for entertainment value at that time frame imo. The Euro had already buried much of the SE US (especially much of N GA) with the biggest DEC snow and biggest solid La Nina snow in ~100 years on 12/7-8 (~5-7" KATL). Instead, they got no more than a few flurries.

[FoothillsNC]

Robert,

This is almost purely for entertainment value at that time frame imo. The Euro had already buried much of the SE US (especially much of N GA) with the biggest DEC snow and biggest solid La Nina snow in ~100 years on 12/7-8 (~5-7" KATL). Instead, they got no more than a few flurries.

very much agree Larry. Entertainment here as well. Sure would be nice to get a Gulf low though, would hate to miss one to the south and east again. Even if its rain, I want a good precip event.

[rduwx]

If I'm not mistaken, the gfs was showing a storm in the 12/18, 12/19 timeframe a few days ago. It has since lost it but it would be nice to have it show up again.

[WeatherNC]

the Midatlantic and NE crew are going to be drooling over this one. Has a classic monster snowstorm, originating in the northeast Gulf, just barely gets the eastern Carolinas (sorry western Carolinas-- misses your area this run) and then curves inland and stacks. major cold dump again to go with it. The euro has been awfully flimsy with wild changes , so I wouldn't get too excited on any Gulf storm yet .

So much for a moderating trend if the EC has any grasp on the extended... Did not loose this storm, which is a good thing. Still a longgg ways out, also looks as though the weak system late next week is south this run, and inline with the GFS trending south on the 12z run.

[eyewall]

My birthday is the 19th and I was shafted for it last year. A make up storm would be nice .

[rduwx]

My birthday is the 19th and I was shafted for it last year. A make up storm would be nice .

I'm all for you having a make up storm! Of course I have ulterior motives...

[FoothillsNC]

I'm all for you having a make up storm! Of course I have ulterior motives...

I think I speak for a few of us, when I say I hope it snows on his birthday too...and that he celebrates his birthday somewhere west of I-77, north of 85, east of 26, and south of I-40.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro looks like one of those commercials where some kid shoots a basketball out his second floor window, calls pavement, and the ball one hops in...Strange looking brew...But definitely cold.

[RevDodd]

Fwiw, the 12Z Sat. Euro gives a good portion of the SE US sig. sticking snow 12/18 PM-12/19 AM.

Edit: sig. snow falls over central GA to as far north as Tony's abode and ENE to Athens, upper SE GA, most of SC except upstate, and the E 2/3 of NC.

The kids will be finished with school before the holidays as well. It would be the perfect time for a walloping winter storm!

That said, and knowing this far out is entertainment only, where does that low come from off the coast.? I looked back on the 144 and 168...nada.

BTW, looks like the 0Z GGEM had something similar, but cutting into North Carolina, rather than staying offshore.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

The kids will be finished with school before the holidays as well. It would be the perfect time for a walloping winter storm!

That said, and knowing this far out is entertainment only, where does that low come from off the coast.? I looked back on the 144 and 168...nada.

BTW, looks like the 0Z GGEM had something similar, but cutting into North Carolina, rather than staying offshore.

I would rather a storm be south of western NC at this stage. As long as it doesn't trend north of us and bury DC again.

[Carvers Gap]

I don't know how many of you get onto the main board. I'm guessing most of you do quite often. I've been watching this conversation today. I don't know enought to participate - I just read in that discussion. Anyway, donsutherland1's comments @ 10:23 AM in regards to blocking during a strong Nina were particularly interesting:

http://www.americanw...cast-to-plunge/

[NCBlizzard]

Bastardi mentioned the storm from the Euro 12z run. Says this supports his idea of a greater chance of a white christmas, and that this system has a higher chance of affecting the south and east. He has also been talking about a great flip in temperatures thats going to happen at the beginning of the new year as the low level cold air heads back into Siberia.

[Carvers Gap]

Bastardi mentioned the storm from the Euro 12z run. Says this supports his idea of a greater chance of a white christmas, and that this system has a higher chance of affecting the south and east. He has also been talking about a great flip in temperatures thats going to happen at the beginning of the new year as the low level cold air heads back into Siberia.

I read that too...I am pretty sure he busted in January of 2008 on temps - and on the end of November prediction this year. We were supposed to go much above in his forecast in January 2008 and basically went normal here in NE TN (+0.3). He is correct in that the La Nina strongly argues for a warm January. That said, he absolutely nailed last year's forecast. That warm water off the coast of Greenland this year is having an impact. I wonder if he had taken that into consideration when the season began. In the back of my mind, I always remember January 1989. I froze walking to class in December at UT - Knoxville. At some point that following January, I was wearing shorts to class. I am hoping that maybe we are in some rare air, and maybe that kind of reversal won't happen. However, we are due a thaw no matter what the case is...

edit: 2005-2006 had a huge flip here at KTRI. Cold December. Very warm January.

[NCBlizzard]

I read that too...I am pretty sure he busted in January of 2008 on temps - and on the end of November prediction this year. We were supposed to go much above in his forecast in January 2008 and basically went normal here in NE TN (+0.3). He is correct in that the La Nina strongly argues for a warm January. That said, he absolutely nailed last year's forecast. That warm water off the coast of Greenland this year is having an impact. I wonder if he had taken that into consideration when the season began. In the back of my mind, I always remember January 1989. I froze walking to class in December at UT - Knoxville. At some point that following January, I was wearing shorts to class. I am hoping that maybe we are in some rare air, and maybe that kind of reversal won't happen. However, we are due a thaw no matter what the case is...

edit: 2005-2006 had a huge flip here at KTRI. Cold December. Very warm January.

I agree I hope that this is some rare air and we don't flip too dramatically.

[HKY18]

the 18z gfs verbatim give portions of the foothills and central nc some snow on the front end of the midweek system with zr or sleet thru 114 with up to 0.50 qpf thru 114

[FallsLake]

the 18z gfs verbatim give portions of the foothills and central nc some snow on the front end of the midweek system with zr or sleet thru 114 with up to 0.50 qpf thru 114

Definitly looks interesting. Also models don't catch CAD setups very good this far out. The 18z gfs has the 850 zero line runs right through NC and then gets pushed into Vir at the tail end. So as you stated snow to ice looks possible. I was reading an post on Accuweather where they think the storms will have a tendancy to be suppressed for the next week or two. So the final outcome may be a little south. Lets hope not too far south.

[WidreMann]

Definitly looks interesting. Also models don't catch CAD setups very good this far out. The 18z gfs has the 850 zero line runs right through NC and then gets pushed into Vir at the tail end. So as you stated snow to ice looks possible. I was reading an post on Accuweather where they think the storms will have a tendancy to be suppressed for the next week or two. So the final outcome may be a little south. Lets hope not too far south.

What CAD? I don't see a HP system of any significance anywhere near our area during that time frame. There's no CAD to catch on it.

[FallsLake]

What CAD? I don't see a HP system of any significance anywhere near our area during that time frame. There's no CAD to catch on it.

From 12z GFS.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

What CAD? I don't see a HP system of any significance anywhere near our area during that time frame. There's no CAD to catch on it.

WidreMann........remember, there are three types of cold air damming. Classic (with the high to the north)......Insitu (damming brought on by evaporative cooling and left over cold pool) .........Hybrid (more of a combination of both)

This CAD will be mostly insitu damming.

[ICEAGE NOW]

Mar 1-3 1980

I remember March 1-3, 1980 real well, I was 18 years old then and we lived near Goldsboro, N.C., this was the biggest snow I've ever seen in my life time, we had 20 inches in our backyard, snow was blowing sideways, they called it a Eastern N.C. blizzard, first time I ever saw and heard thundersnow, lighting lite up the sky at night during the storm. We were out of school for a week, they didn't have the plows down east like they do up here in the piedmont at that time.

I wish we could get another storm like that again, that's one snowstorm I'll always remember for sure.

[WidreMann]

WidreMann........remember, there are three types of cold air damming. Classic (with the high to the north)......Insitu (damming brought on by evaporative cooling and left over cold pool) .........Hybrid (more of a combination of both)

This CAD will be mostly insitu damming.

It's been a long time since anything but classic has performed. Sure, some zr/ip at the onset, but rain otherwise.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

It's been a long time since anything but classic has performed. Sure, some zr/ip at the onset, but rain otherwise.

Well, the NWS forecast says just that........IP/ZR followed by rain. Which is probably the best approach right now. This will be a case where the low level temps won't be a problem.

If the mid level temps don't warm fast enough as the precip comes in, then we could be looking at a front-end thump before the changeover. That's what the GFS is currently showing.

[burrel2]

Several of the 18z GFS individual members have a gulf low spreading snow across the Southeast at 192hrs. Maybe we'll finally have a legit threat to watch here soon. I'm mildly excited about the potential freezing rain event Wednesday night, but it's hard for me to get too excited about a potential low qpf event that will have waa ruin it at some point during the night.

[sctvman]

The weathercasters here are getting into the bitter cold expected here. One station said 38 Monday, 39 Tuesday. The average high in Charleston this time of year is a balmy 62. Many areas will get down into the teens at night Monday or Tuesday.