December 14th and onward discussion thread

[SBUWX23]

Me thinks if it does you might be having a lot of fun up their in NYC.

Im actually coming down to NC on the 27th through New Years so depending on how things play out I may miss it

[Thunderhead Hawkins]

KHUN is a bit interested in the midweek system...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE

LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR VERY

IMPRESSIVE WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO

WEDNESDAY. THIS POTENTIAL IS IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE AND

IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING ADVECTED TOWARD THE AREA VIA NW

FLOW. FOR NOW ONLY HIT THE TIME PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z IN GRIDS

WITH FREEZING RAIN...BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO A FREEZING

RAIN PROFILE THROUGH 6 PM ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A

SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS...AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND SHOULD

BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS

CONTINUE TO SHOW BITS OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH THIS

FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO LEFT 30 POP IN FOR MOST OF EXTENDED.

&&

[FoothillsNC]

KHUN is a bit interested in the midweek system...

the GFS brings ZR into northern Alabama midday Wednesday. Usually this type of situation is fairly quick, and the models seem to be catching on to speeding it up. I'd say an icy night is in store atleast a few hours before the changeover to plain rain. Same for middle Tenn.

[WhiteoutWX]

GFS has steadily trended north/stronger all day with the LP for the midweek system. Seems to be strengthening the LP erroneously though in the face of the block, but what do I know

[FoothillsNC]

at the end of its run, the strong ridge in northern Canada collapses and a strong polar vortex moves across the north pole from Siberia and is heading south toward central Canada. Pretty neat to watch that progression. of course it may not be right, but this is a weird pattern for sure. Something strange could happen this month later on. That Polar Vortex is off the charts deep, the maximum color shading, so I'm sure there's some extreme bitter arctic air with that.

[WeatherNC]

the GFS brings ZR into northern Alabama midday Wednesday. Usually this type of situation is fairly quick, and the models seem to be catching on to speeding it up. I'd say an icy night is in store atleast a few hours before the changeover to plain rain. Same for middle Tenn.

VA gets a sig icestorm this run, general quarter to half inch, with surface temps below freezing all the way down to the NC VA boarder. Roughly the same track as the 12z EC... Better them than me in that regards, not a fan of ZR, but it would not take much of a shift south, about 100 miles in the 5 & 6 day, to put the northern half of NC at risk. Long range starting to look good as we head towards Christmas!

Weird, the GFS snow map, at-least on Allan's site bites on accumulating dendrites in central VA with the system next week, but when you look at thickness and surface temps, you can clearly see it is ZR...

[Weather Czar]

VA gets a sig icestorm this run, general quarter to half inch, with surface temps below freezing all the way down to the NC VA boarder. Roughly the same track as the 12z EC... Better them than me in that regards, not a fan of ZR, but it would not take much of a shift south, about 100 miles in the 5 & 6 day, to put the northern half of NC at risk. Long range starting to look good as we head towards Christmas!

I agree, If the pattern the GFS is showing is right then alot in the south will see a white Christmas. Not surprising with the way the AO is about to tank.

[Thunderhead Hawkins]

the GFS brings ZR into northern Alabama midday Wednesday. Usually this type of situation is fairly quick, and the models seem to be catching on to speeding it up. I'd say an icy night is in store atleast a few hours before the changeover to plain rain. Same for middle Tenn.

Thanks for the input. It will be interesting to see how this pans out. Ironically, the last ice storm we had here in Northwest Alabama was in December 1998. Not saying this will be an ice storm, but it's a bit odd to go such a long time without a significant storm here. The previpous storm before that one was in February 1994. The same storm that paralyzed most of the midsouth and southeast.

[WeatherNC]

I agree, If the pattern the GFS is showing is right then alot in the south will see a white Christmas. Not surprising with the way the AO is about to tank.

In such an anomalous pattern though with the NAO and AO nearing record territory, one has to question the models accuracy in handling the influence. The storm system this weekend is a good example, given the lack of continuity and agreement within the 96 hr window, which was pretty remarkable. As things stand now, and this will obviously change, we have 4 things to keep our eyes on till Santa comes... First is the storm this weekend, mostly RN, but still some disagreement for areas in western NC on precip type, and TN may get surprised, as could portions of the deep south with a couple SN showers. Second is the ZR event middle to latter part of next week. Third is a potential overrunning event around the 21st, and fourth is a system on or near Christmas day. Good times ahead!

[jrips27]

In such an anomalous pattern though with the NAO and AO nearing record territory, one has to question the models accuracy in handling the influence. The storm system this weekend is a good example, given the lack of continuity and agreement within the 96 hr window, which was pretty remarkable. As things stand now, and this will obviously change, we have 4 things to keep our eyes on till Santa comes... First is the storm this weekend, mostly RN, but still some disagreement for areas in western NC on precip type, and TN may get surprised, as could portions of the deep south with a couple SN showers. Second is the ZR event middle to latter part of next week. Third is a potential overrunning event around the 21st, and fourth is a system on or near Christmas day. Good times ahead!

Looks good! Next 2 weeks should be busy!

[Jon]

In such an anomalous pattern though with the NAO and AO nearing record territory, one has to question the models accuracy in handling the influence. The storm system this weekend is a good example, given the lack of continuity and agreement within the 96 hr window, which was pretty remarkable. As things stand now, and this will obviously change, we have 4 things to keep our eyes on till Santa comes... First is the storm this weekend, mostly RN, but still some disagreement for areas in western NC on precip type, and TN may get surprised, as could portions of the deep south with a couple SN showers. Second is the ZR event middle to latter part of next week. Third is a potential overrunning event around the 21st, and fourth is a system on or near Christmas day. Good times ahead!

and of course JB is agreeing with the white Christmas as far south as NC...he is already trying to take credit for his pre-thanksgiving prediction of the US being 50% covered with snow by December 25th We'll see...but I'm liking our chances mid to late December, especially the 20-25th time frame...he's thinking we'll get some blocking set up and the SE will cash in.

[WhiteoutWX]

Euro looks warmer to me at the upper levels... anyone have surface temps?

[WeatherNC]

Damn! Burger, what does the QPF look like with this?

[WhiteoutWX]

Damn! Burger, what does the QPF look like with this?

X

Damn and in the next frame at hr 240 it hasnt even moved! A stalled surface low east of Hatteras? When was the last time a winter storm parked itself that far south?

Thats some intense blocking

[Carvers Gap]

Damn! Burger, what does the QPF look like with this?

That may or may not verify, but mercy!!! Even if it's just on a model, that is impressive.

[downeastnc]

Damn and in the next frame at hr 240 it hasnt even moved! A stalled surface low east of Hatteras? When was the last time a winter storm parked itself that far south?

Thats some intense blocking

Mar 1-3 1980

[FoothillsNC]

That may or may not verify, but mercy!!! Even if it's just on a model, that is impressive.

I don't have an easy way to calculate the qpf for those hours but it looks like severalinches in extreme eastern NC and the OBX area. Keep an eye on that storm, but I expect things could change one way or another since its a long ways off. With the blocking something strange could easily happen.

[Rankin5150]

I don't have an easy way to calculate the qpf for those hours but it looks like severalinches in extreme eastern NC and the OBX area. Keep an eye on that storm, but I expect things could change one way or another since its a long ways off. With the blocking something strange could easily happen.

Ugh Robert...looks like our frzn chances mid-late week are gone poof. Seems like that on the last few runs. Throw me some analysis for wintry hope my brotha!

[FoothillsNC]

Ugh Robert...looks like our frzn chances mid-late week are gone poof. Seems like that on the last few runs. Throw me some analysis for wintry hope my brotha!

yeah looks like the models are mostly going west of us and nw. Not much qpf here anyway. gong to be a cloudy , damp, dreary period coming up for us, starting Wednesday, probably a week or so of muck.

[Rankin5150]

yeah looks like the models are mostly going west of us and nw. Not much qpf here anyway. gong to be a cloudy , damp, dreary period coming up for us, starting Wednesday, probably a week or so of muck.

I am starting to "drink the Koolaid" when it comes to believing Burgertimes triangle of snowless hell...

[FoothillsNC]

I am starting to "drink the Koolaid" when it comes to believing Burgertimes triangle of snowless hell...

yeah, but we've never had a chance of snow here yet, with any of these systems. Could be a couple of flakes in the partly cloudy skies somewhere around here Monday, or even Sunday afternoon, but don't blink. Have to head to the mountains to see some snow, as usual. The big news for us is going to be the cold wx for a couple of days, probably not getting to 30 degrees for our for 2 days.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I am starting to "drink the Koolaid" when it comes to believing Burgertimes triangle of snowless hell...

Differences to me on this run looks to be the preceeding CAO. It is not as deep nor cold as yesterday's solutions. The reason looks to be the confluence in the NE. That low pressure east of Maine is considerably weaker on the latest runs. This allows our system to gain lattitude instead of cruising along to our south. We need that lead system in the Northeast to trend stronger, if we are going to see any frozen precip in this timeframe. Thoughts??

[DaculaWeather]

FFC is calling for rain/snow on Wednesday now. VERY unlike them to say snow that far in advance.

[rosie]

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY TUE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL GA THEN ACROSS N

GA WED. STILL LOOKING AT NIGHT LIME LOWS IN THE TEENS TUE NIGHT AND

INTO THE 20S AND 30S WED NIGHT. BY THU AND FRI SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR

OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE

OF PRECIP THU/FRI AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.

RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINLY BETWEEN THE MODELS TO KNOW

EXACTLY WHAT TO EXPECT YET. WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO

TRY AND GET A BETTER HANDEL ON THE SITUATION.

[DaculaWeather]

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY TUE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL GA THEN ACROSS N

GA WED. STILL LOOKING AT NIGHT LIME LOWS IN THE TEENS TUE NIGHT AND

INTO THE 20S AND 30S WED NIGHT. BY THU AND FRI SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR

OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE

OF PRECIP THU/FRI AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.

RIGHT NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINLY BETWEEN THE MODELS TO KNOW

EXACTLY WHAT TO EXPECT YET. WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO

TRY AND GET A BETTER HANDEL ON THE SITUATION.

I have this:

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Carvers Gap]

I don't have an easy way to calculate the qpf for those hours but it looks like severalinches in extreme eastern NC and the OBX area. Keep an eye on that storm, but I expect things could change one way or another since its a long ways off. With the blocking something strange could easily happen.

The PNA looks to be predicted to trend more towards neutral on the CPC site ensembles, the NAO is negative, and the AO is going off the chart again into negative territory(second straight winter potentially). With all of that happening, the models are going to show some wild solutions - I agree. At this point, the winter is still basically following the Nina trend - correct me if I'm wrong(I'm not expert). What will be really intetresting is if this continues into January.

http://www.cpc.ncep....nnections.shtml

[rosie]

I have this:

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

I have about the same, FFC is uncertain as to what to forecast at this time

[BIG FROSTY]

JB still thinks we better cash in before the new year !!! Even though the AO is neg He says there will be a flip in the pattern ? Here's a little from his post, can't post it all. But here's enough to show you what he's thinking..

In addition while the AO is negative it is so in a way that is "draining" cold air out of north America the last week of the year. Again no moveable type so I can show you, but on Sunday I will, the fact that the cold air is heading over to much of eastern Asia over the next few weeks. On the table, though not till after Christmas, is the chance of a monster flip to warmer. Right now, the Euro, taken literally is still cold, but the much below normal of next week from the northern plains to the southeast US is replaced in 4 weeks by a large area of normal,

And this,

There is nothing on the GFS ensembles that says that through 15 days, but the change in Europe to a much more relaxed pattern around Christmas is the first time I have seen something that makes me say... look out the pattern may change across N America.

[Jon]

Damn! Burger, what does the QPF look like with this?

I can look at 6hr precip rates but that's it...looks like Robert is right about it, a couple of inches off the coast, maybe 1 inch as you go further inland towards RDU...

[packbacker]

JB still thinks we better cash in before the new year !!! Even though the AO is neg He says there will be a flip in the pattern ? Here's a little from his post, can't post it all. But here's enough to show you what he's thinking..

In addition while the AO is negative it is so in a way that is "draining" cold air out of north America the last week of the year. Again no moveable type so I can show you, but on Sunday I will, the fact that the cold air is heading over to much of eastern Asia over the next few weeks. On the table, though not till after Christmas, is the chance of a monster flip to warmer. Right now, the Euro, taken literally is still cold, but the much below normal of next week from the northern plains to the southeast US is replaced in 4 weeks by a large area of normal,

And this,

There is nothing on the GFS ensembles that says that through 15 days, but the change in Europe to a much more relaxed pattern around Christmas is the first time I have seen something that makes me say... look out the pattern may change across N America.

One can only hope for a flip in the pattern. This pattern blows, brutal cold than rain for two days only to be followed by more brutal cold. $300 gas bill this month is going to be great. Don't want to dash everyones hopes but when was the last time central NC had a 4" plus snow storm in December? 60 years ago, maybe. Hopefully the piedmont and points west can cash in soon because I hope it's warm and dry in Jan/Feb.