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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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The thing that scares me the most is I'm sitting at a trace on the year(and I mean a scant trace) and it looks doubtful for any accumulating snowfall for the next week or 2 weeks at this point. If/when the pattern breaks down(possibly after new years?), I may just end up getting hung with a T for the season and that just sucks.

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Might be time to start a Christmas storm thread. It's been on and off the GFS for the past week. 12z GFS for next Christmas Day. Looks like a stout LP with a 1036mb HP up in Canada. The players are on the field. :snowman:

I can't even get anyone to talk about the potential for next Tuesday. Everyone seems so pesamistic even though we have had two events already this month here in central NC.

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I can't even get anyone to talk about the potential for next Tuesday. Everyone seems so pesamistic even though we have had two events already this month here in central NC.

Those of us in the southern foothills, western and southern piedmont have every right to be pessimistic. We've been on the sidelines all month long.

If you couple that with the pattern being close to downright hostile for big snows, I don't have one single reason to have a small shred of optimism right now.

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All-time record low avg temps for Dec at GSP, CLT, and AVL as of 12/16/10. Very impressive. :shiver:

Greenville-Spartanburg Area 
Extremes
Lowest Average Average Temperature degrees F
Days: 12/1 - 12/16
Length of period: 16 days
Years: 1850-2010

Rank  Value  Ending Date
 1    33.9   12/16/1903, 12/16/2010
 3    34.6   12/16/1917
 4    35.8   12/16/1898
 5    36.8   12/16/1915

=======================================

Charlotte Area  
Extremes
Lowest Average Average Temperature degrees F
Days: 12/1 - 12/16
Length of period: 16 days
Years: 1850-2010

Rank  Value  Ending Date
 1    33.3   12/16/2010
 2    34.6   12/16/1917
 3    36.4   12/16/1962
 4    37.0   12/16/1958, 12/16/1886

=======================================

Asheville Area 
Extremes
Lowest Average Average Temperature degrees F
Days: 12/1 - 12/16
Length of period: 16 days
Years: 1850-2010

Rank  Value  Ending Date
 1    29.1   12/16/2010
 2    30.2   12/16/1962
 3    30.3   12/16/1917
 4    30.6   12/16/1910
 5    30.9   12/16/1903

Its no wonder the models have been struggling so much these past few weeks with the synoptics...they've never seen such a continuous cA airmass like this before on such a broad scale...esp this early in the season.

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All-time record low avg temps for Dec at GSP, CLT, and AVL as of 12/16/10. Very impressive. :shiver:

Greenville-Spartanburg Area 
Extremes
Lowest Average Average Temperature degrees F
Days: 12/1 - 12/16
Length of period: 16 days
Years: 1850-2010

Rank  Value  Ending Date
 1    33.9   12/16/1903, 12/16/2010
 3    34.6   12/16/1917
 4    35.8   12/16/1898
 5    36.8   12/16/1915

=======================================

Charlotte Area  
Extremes
Lowest Average Average Temperature degrees F
Days: 12/1 - 12/16
Length of period: 16 days
Years: 1850-2010

Rank  Value  Ending Date
 1    33.3   12/16/2010
 2    34.6   12/16/1917
 3    36.4   12/16/1962
 4    37.0   12/16/1958, 12/16/1886

=======================================

Asheville Area 
Extremes
Lowest Average Average Temperature degrees F
Days: 12/1 - 12/16
Length of period: 16 days
Years: 1850-2010

Rank  Value  Ending Date
 1    29.1   12/16/2010
 2    30.2   12/16/1962
 3    30.3   12/16/1917
 4    30.6   12/16/1910
 5    30.9   12/16/1903

Its no wonder the models have been struggling so much these past few weeks with the synoptics...they've never seen such a continuous cA airmass like this before on such a broad scale...esp this early in the season.

Amazing....... Those are some cold years we are competing with. Wonder if Jan 2011 will follow suit? I know Dec 1962 featured a sleet storm on Christmas Day for some parts of western NC east of the mtns and Jan 1918 was very cold. Could be a great winter.

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So much for the clipper snow. lol

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW

AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT

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The 0z NAM just initialized with a 1088mb pressure bull's-eye over Greenland....is this for real??

Wow, I've never heard of one this high. But its there! FWIW, the GFS had a 1060 progged there. I think the NAM must be overdone. Lets retrograde it back into Western New York and see what happens.:popcorn:

post-38-0-95260600-1292729270.gif

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Those of us in the southern foothills, western and southern piedmont have every right to be pessimistic. We've been on the sidelines all month long.

If you couple that with the pattern being close to downright hostile for big snows, I don't have one single reason to have a small shred of optimism right now.

Don't talk like central NC has done that great: two <0.5" events with one that was almost all melted by the late afternoon of the same day. The only people who have done well are SW VA and far NW NC (plus mountains). Everyone else has more or less been screwed, with token amounts of snow here or there. For the amount of cold we've had, with the kind of departures we've had, this has been a fairly disappointing month.

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Take a look at the teleconnection ensemble means at CPC this morning. The NAO appears to be heading back in the tank for early January. The AO tries to go positive, but doesn't make it. The PNA maintains a slightly negative look, but more positive than it has been. If those signals hold...early January isn't looking as warm as I thought it would be - not even close.

http://www.cpc.ncep....nnections.shtml

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Don't talk like central NC has done that great: two <0.5" events with one that was almost all melted by the late afternoon of the same day. The only people who have done well are SW VA and far NW NC (plus mountains). Everyone else has more or less been screwed, with token amounts of snow here or there. For the amount of cold we've had, with the kind of departures we've had, this has been a fairly disappointing month.

You should move north. Hillsborough is approaching 6" for the year. (if my wife's 2" of snow for the last event before the sleet and freezing rain washed it away).

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