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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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Sweet. Yeah no post accu.

Thanks Man!

I would post it but its on AccuweatherPro and as far as I know it is against board rules to post it. It spreads about 3/4 - 1" qpf through mine and your areas with the 1 - 1.25 inch line south of I-85. And oconoeexman your right on that freezing line with the 3/4 - 1" of qpf also.

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Update from JB...

ENSEMBLES ON EAST COAST: IMPRESSIVE. The GFS and the UKMET operational are the most impressive of the operational models on the weekend threat on the east coast. I am impressed with ALL THE MODELING upper air pattern, they are pretty much in agreement and in fact it looks a little like the Christmas 1966 snowstorm as far as the pattern. But what is missing is the consensus on the surface evolution, and oddly enough, the usual suspects are opposite of their usual position., ITS THE GFS that is keying on the development toward the trough, rather than feeding back and sending it out to sea! :thumbsup:

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A def trend toward the Euro! at hr96 the low is southeast of Macon a little more than the 12z run then the low moves to just off the Charleston coast. A much better trend IMO. Mountains would do well and even parts east of the Mtns. Just a little more southeast jog and a lot more of us are in business :weight_lift:

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The Nogaps stuck to its guns with a suppressed southern slider. Maybe it'll score a coup!

Verbatim, it paints the best swath of snow from athens to charlotte to eastern NC. The biggest winners would be extreme eastern NC. Greenville, SC to Raleigh would be the fringe of the precip shield.

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I would post it but its on AccuweatherPro and as far as I know it is against board rules to post it. It spreads about1/2" qpf through mine and your areas. And oconoeexman your right on that freezing line with the 1/2" of qpf also.

I'll take this right now for MBY> Heres a link, save it.

http://www.stormvistamodels.com/JMA12z.htm

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Heres the 18z gfs total qpf. The Euro and JMA are colder than the gfs and little futher south. As pointed out all models are pretty close with synoptics pattern from right now-5 days out and closing in. Be fun tonight and for the next 4 days praying this thing produces. Gonna be a moisture laden event.

gfs_p36_120s.gif

Hawt @#$% Please Baby Jesus let it be cold enough! :thumbsup:

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i would expect and adjustment westward by the euro tonight because the ensemble mean was right around the same track of the op run if not a little west and usually the ens mean has a southeastward bias so a little movement west isnt out of the question imo.....12z was very close to something bigger it was just a little too strung out. and the fact that nearly every ensemble member for the ggem was west of its op run position so that may come farther west as well.

but the 18z gfs ensemble is a good bit se of the 12z ensemble so we'll see i guess.

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I hate to burst the JMA bubble, but some of "or most of" that precip falls before the 850 0 line comes through. Look at where the 850 line is prior to the 96hr 24hr qpf map.

And it has been that way for the past several runs, too warm for most... Also, an 850 track like the GFS is currently showing, forming around the upstate of SC and moving to near Norfolk, is less than ideal for the SE in general, excluding western NC. If this storm impacts the MA and NE, the SE is probably screwed. :(

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