December 14th and onward discussion thread

[sctvman]

It only got to 38.1 today. Already it has dropped almost a full degree from that (down to 37.4). We may have a colder night tonight than this morning.

[burgertime]

little play by play? You still have access to the Euro QPF maps?

I'll be doing some play by play if no one else is at lunch but not at 2 a.m., my ass is in bed then. Yes I have access to the Euro QPF maps.

[WXinCanton]

I'll be doing some play by play if no one else is at lunch but not at 2 a.m., my ass is in bed then. Yes I have access to the Euro QPF maps.

I never can stay up for the 0z euro, GFS sometimes if something looks good.

Im at 34.4 IMBY

[buckeyefan1]

The past couple of days CAE has had the threat of wintry precip in their forecast... I sure don't see anything but liquid imby..but what do I know...lol

CAE

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW US WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH A

SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW

ALOFT. H85 RIDGE AXIS MOVES E OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT WHILE

SW FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS GULF

MOISTURE UP OVER THE REGION. THE SFC RIDGE ALSO MOVES E EARLY THU

AND A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE

APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE

WED NIGHT MEANS A CHANCE OF PRECIP STARTING AS A WINTRY MIX BY

MIDNIGHT...THEN AS SFC TEMPS COOL BELOW AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE...A

CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE N 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO

MID MORNING BEFORE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES N OF THE AREA WITH A CHANCE

OF RAIN REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WARM TO THE M40S N...NEAR

60 S THU AFTN...STAY WELL ABOVE AVG THU NIGHT WITH A CONTINUING

CHANCE OF LGT RAIN...THEN RANGE FROM THE L50S-L60S FRI.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --H5 SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND

TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE N GULF

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AS

WELL. WITH CONTINUING MOIST H85 SW-W FLOW WENT WITH SOLID CHANCE

POPS OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30-L40S SO RAIN IS

EXPECTED TO BE THE PTYPE. SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SC JUST S OF THE

FORECAST AREA DURGING THE DAY SAT AND TRACKS ENE AND OFF THE

CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. AS COLD AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM

EXPECT THICKNESS AND TEMPS TO DROP SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW

SAT NIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY SUN MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE

BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MON-TUE AND WITH N FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS

TO BE WELL BELOW AVG.-- End Changed Discussion --

[rosie]

The past couple of days CAE has had the threat of wintry precip in their forecast... I sure don't see anything but liquid imby..but what do I know...lol

CAE

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW US WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI WITH A

SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW

ALOFT. H85 RIDGE AXIS MOVES E OF THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT WHILE

SW FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS GULF

MOISTURE UP OVER THE REGION. THE SFC RIDGE ALSO MOVES E EARLY THU

AND A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE

APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE

WED NIGHT MEANS A CHANCE OF PRECIP STARTING AS A WINTRY MIX BY

MIDNIGHT...THEN AS SFC TEMPS COOL BELOW AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE...A

CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE N 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO

MID MORNING BEFORE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES N OF THE AREA WITH A CHANCE

OF RAIN REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WARM TO THE M40S N...NEAR

60 S THU AFTN...STAY WELL ABOVE AVG THU NIGHT WITH A CONTINUING

CHANCE OF LGT RAIN...THEN RANGE FROM THE L50S-L60S FRI.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --H5 SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND

TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE N GULF

IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AS

WELL. WITH CONTINUING MOIST H85 SW-W FLOW WENT WITH SOLID CHANCE

POPS OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE M30-L40S SO RAIN IS

EXPECTED TO BE THE PTYPE. SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SC JUST S OF THE

FORECAST AREA DURGING THE DAY SAT AND TRACKS ENE AND OFF THE

CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. AS COLD AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM

EXPECT THICKNESS AND TEMPS TO DROP SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW

SAT NIGHT BEFORE PRECIP ENDS EARLY SUN MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE

BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM MON-TUE AND WITH N FLOW...EXPECT TEMPS

TO BE WELL BELOW AVG.-- End Changed Discussion --

Snow is mentioned in my forecast but I am not counting on anything anytime soon!

[DopplerWx]

Snow/mix is also mentioned in hartsville, sc's forecast for tomorrow night into thurs morning. They seem confident that a small band of light precip will come through late tomorrow night and lay down some light snow showers. i didnt think there was any shot but they are the pros.

[buckeyefan1]

Snow is mentioned in my forecast but I am not counting on anything anytime soon!

I wonder if getting burned on the system this past Feb is the reason for the winter wording. Hopefully those to my north and west will be able to cash in this weekend

[eyewall]

RAH Disc on the weekend storm:

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A POSITIVELY TILTED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH

WILL SET UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE AN INVERTED

SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IN

ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME BETTER AGREEMENT THIS

AFTERNOON...HISTORICALLY THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN

DEVELOPING THE LOW IN THE GULF INTO A MATURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES UP

THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN LESS CONVINCING...KEEPING THE LOW

WEAKER AND GIVING IT A MORE ELONGATED STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE TO NO

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. WHILE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION

AFTER THURSDAYS EVENT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LINGERING

PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE

FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES

IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN

WESTERN QUEBEC AND HELP TO TILT THE 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH IN A MORE

NEGATIVE DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW IN THE

DEEP SOUTH AND STEER IT NORTHEASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME A JET

ENTRANCE REGION WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. CHANCES FOR RAIN

WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE

SOUTHWEST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LIQUID FORM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON MAKING A

CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AND SNOW MORE LIKELY IN THE TRIAD SATURDAY

EVENING. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY EXPECT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO

OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS STILL WARM ENOUGH

TO SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP IN THE SOUTH UNTIL AROUND 6Z SUNDAY WHEN

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE CWA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOW

LEVEL TEMPS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF

MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTH THROUGH 6Z. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 40

IN THE TRIAD WITH MID 40S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER

20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: BY SUNDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE JUST OFF OF THE

NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THE GFS STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN THE

ECMWF. AGAIN WITH THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT...THE GFS SHOWS A HIGHER

CHANCE OF SOME KIND OF LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTERNOON. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE ALL SNOW AS

TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT

IT...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW

IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 18Z AND THROUGH 00Z

MONDAY IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MID 30S TO

LOW 40S WITH MOST OF THE HEATING OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS

SUNDAY NIGHT MID 20S. AFTER THE LOW PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...A

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER NORTH CAROLINA KEEPING

THE FORECAST DRY AND COLD TROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE

TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THICKNESS SUPPORTING HIGHS

ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 40S

WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. TUESDAY HIGHS IN

THE MID TO UPPER 30S.-- End Changed Discussion --

[UNCCmetgrad]

The EURO really looks good for areas really all the way down to the southern piedmont of North Carolina and into the northern upstate of South Carolina with temperatures at or below freezing from 925mb up. Surface temperatures look too warm but is precip is heavy enough it could easily bring the freezing level down to the surface. One thing I keep thinking of however is this is the old cold air chasing the moisture deal. I can't count enough times this has failed us here in the Carolina's especially south and east of a line from Asheville, Hickory, Statesville, and Greensboro. Models seem to always be too quick with the CAA at lower levels east of the mountains. But hey, these situations are what makes forecasting the weather here so much fun and difficult at the same time.

[DaculaWeather]

Haha yea I got duel monitors as well, thankfully at work most of my stuff is free flowing and comes in spurts so I have time to mess around with these maps. Of course earlier today it was madness so all I could do was take a quick break and post a few tidbits on here. I consider this my smoke breaks since I don't smoke.

When things get good here I'll have three computers and multiple screens going, looks like Mission Control!

I hit 32 exactly today and now it's falling.

[Brick Tamland]

RAH sounds like they are still keeping things as broad as possible.

[chapelhillwx]

RAH sounds like they are still keeping things as broad as possible.

I was reading one of the discussions out of RAH in class this morning and burst out laughing in the middle of an endless sermon on politics of the Gilded Age... "Folly" is an interesting word to use in an AFD!

[eyewall]

For this weekend:

[NEGa]

Snow is mentioned in my forecast but I am not counting on anything anytime soon!

well for our back yards its looking like a brief window on the 18z nam for something frozen, but by the time the precip arrives (esp in ne ga) temps are warming up. by about hour 42 or so we go above freezing

[UNCCmetgrad]

Reading the GSP AFD and they mentions rain transitioning to snow Saturday night and ending early Sunday morning, but when I looked at my forecast it just has mostly cloudy skies from Friday night through Saturday night. Talk about uncertainty.

[eyewall]

Reading the GSP AFD and they mentions rain transitioning to snow Saturday night and ending early Sunday morning, but when I looked at my forecast it just has mostly cloudy skies from Friday night through Saturday night. Talk about uncertainty.

The grids usually update a bit behind the discussion.

[UNCCmetgrad]

The grids usually update a bit behind the discussion.

I think they already have as the forecast period begins with tonight.

[eyewall]

I think they already have as the forecast period begins with tonight.

Ahh ok perhaps they are holding off due to low confidence this far out before stirring up the pot too much.

[BIG FROSTY]

My updated forecast from NWS---- Maybe a little winter precip !!!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...FREEZING RAIN. SLEET AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...

THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW

ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.

NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF

RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET. A CHANCE OF FREEZING

RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 20S.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...

THEN MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE

OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

[NavarreDon]

Reading the GSP AFD and they mentions rain transitioning to snow Saturday night and ending early Sunday morning, but when I looked at my forecast it just has mostly cloudy skies from Friday night through Saturday night. Talk about uncertainty.

Seems to be updated now.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Belmont&state=NC&site=GSP&lat=35.2499&lon=-81.0402

[UNCCmetgrad]

Ahh ok perhaps they are holding off due to low confidence this far out before stirring up the pot too much.

Would not surprise me at all as GSP is normally very conservative in these situations as they probably should be. Just thought there would some mention of precipitation of some kind.

[NEGa]

My updated forecast from NWS---- Maybe a little winter precip !!!

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...FREEZING RAIN. SLEET AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...

THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW

ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.

NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF

RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE

LOWER 40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET. A CHANCE OF FREEZING

RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 20S.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...

THEN MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE

OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

so THATS where my snow went, eh? lol - good luck. that was the forecast for mby for wed. that was out yesterday. of course we no what happened with it today (you stole it )

btw, dewpoint is 3

[strongwxnc]

Updated..

Would not surprise me at all as GSP is normally very conservative in these situations as they probably should be. Just thought there would some mention of precipitation of some kind.

[UNCCmetgrad]

Seems to be updated now.

http://forecast.weat...99&lon=-81.0402

Thanks that looks much better! BTW...Anybody else here not excited about next months heating bill?

[burgertime]

GFS is starting to run now, let's see what's down the rabbit hole.

[NCBlizzard]

Did anyone else see the 12z JMA it looks pretty good with the 540 line running at or a little south of I-85 from the upstate to Raleigh, with some good precip. amounts.

[strongwxnc]

If you got it. Post the link...

Thanks

Did anyone else see the 12z JMA it looks pretty good with the 540 line running at or a little south of I-85 from the upstate to Raleigh, with some good precip. amounts.

[oconeexman]

Did anyone else see the 12z JMA it looks pretty good with the 540 line running at or a little south of I-85 from the upstate to Raleigh, with some good precip. amounts.

Yes plz post a link to it!

[burgertime]

Dman I used to have links to the JMA panels but my computer crashed so don't know where they are.

[NCBlizzard]

If you got it. Post the link...

Thanks

I would post it but its on AccuweatherPro and as far as I know it is against board rules to post it. It spreads about1/2" qpf through mine and your areas. And oconoeexman your right on that freezing line with the 1/2" of qpf also.