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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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I totally agree, this is ever so close to being one to remember for the N. Georgia to Maine corridor...a real big fat 80's system. The 5H shows great potential as the retrograding flow in the Lakes is almost perfect. I'm always worried about temps for this part of NC but we've inched a lot close to a possibility now, if we can get it to amplify and not remain terribly flow. The models are going to waffle with this, which makes it fun to follow. Hopefully we don't follow somehting hard for 3 more days only to have a dud drop on us either, like so often. I'd love to see about anyone get a 6" or more snowfall from this one, even if not here.

I agree Robert. The players are on the field. I would imagine this would trend more toward amplification as opposed to a flat wave as we get closer, but that is really just a gut hunch and nothing more.

Great to hear Matt! This far you just having a storm to track is good. The details will iron themselves out as we get closer. A long way away but the Dr. No seems to be saying don't give up hope yet!

Yeah, remember the Euro had this thing as a nice storm several days ago.

I guess at this point, I would be more worried about rain for Hwy 74 as opposed to the system missing south. But we will see.....

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I totally agree, this is ever so close to being one to remember for the N. Georgia to Maine corridor...a real big fat 80's system. The 5H shows great potential as the retrograding flow in the Lakes is almost perfect. I'm always worried about temps for this part of NC but we've inched a lot close to a possibility now, if we can get it to amplify and not remain terribly flow. The models are going to waffle with this, which makes it fun to follow. Hopefully we don't follow somehting hard for 3 more days only to have a dud drop on us either, like so often. I'd love to see about anyone get a 6" or more snowfall from this one, even if not here.

I think we are all used to it by now. But I agree, this is so close.

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at 156 and 168 hours this storm gets sucked into the giant 510 vortex over the lakes and western New England, just north of Maine. We're in pretty cold air again, this pattern is stuck and repetitive with that riding in northern Canada. You have to admit the major blocking the models showed the last 2 weeks really came about. Now if we can land a snowfall I'd call it a good Winter and ready to move on to a balmy January.

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Wow....the 12z Euro looks oh-so-close to a biggie to me. It keeps the energy a little too strung out at 500mb to really bomb out, but man, looking at that 500 vort charts, to me it looks so close to a big-time storm. Just a few ticks away...

Plenty of time to make wishes come true. Still far enough out.:thumbsup:

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there are a few thing too look at as well. first the gfs its seems the farthest west and isnt it usually too far south with stronger storm systems? and the op ggem was east and strung out but all of its ensemble members werent nearly as strung out in fact i think every member was west of the op so just some thing too think about.

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Yeah it's looking better than what I figured. The chance is still there for a decent hit across parts of the SE. Could it get better? It certainly can. No guarantees of course, but I still say that once we get this midweek system out of the way, there will be a much better handle of the weekend event which may (or may not) trend better than it is now. No need to stand near that cliff folks.

:)

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I agree Robert. The players are on the field. I would imagine this would trend more toward amplification as opposed to a flat wave as we get closer, but that is really just a gut hunch and nothing more.

Yeah, remember the Euro had this thing as a nice storm several days ago.

I guess at this point, I would be more worried about rain for Hwy 74 as opposed to the system missing south. But we will see.....

Matt, yes I do remember.... classic EURO showing then losing and showing a storm. We are getting closer to the EURO's wheel house so hopefully we can keep the trend alive and get a good winter storm for the Shelby/Gastonia/CLT area!

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It's nice to have the Euro showing good potential and the GFS saying no for once. Would more amplification be bad for us in N. Georgia? It seems like that would pull it more inland and make us warmer. It seems hard for us to score along with most of North Carolina.

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00z tonight will start to get in it's good range.

Yeah I would say starting at 0z tonight and def by tomorrow afternoon's run. That doesn't mean it will nail it all down by then though. We will have to wait until tomorrow night/Thursday storm is moving out before all the models will start to get a good grasp on how our weekend storm will play out. Lots of model watching to follow. Then Thursday evening the NAM will start getting into it's zone

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What would be needed to benefit both of the Carolinas as far as snow potential is concerned?

A slight tilt in the Earth's axis should do the trick...:)

It would be tough to make us all happy in both states. Generally what would make the mountains happy is bad news for Down Easters and unless a storm tracked perfectly into existing cold, it would be real hard for Columbia and Faynam to be happy without Charleston and Asheville sighing.

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A slight tilt in the Earth's axis should do the trick...:)

It would be tough to make us all happy in both states. Generally what would make the mountains happy is bad news for Down Easters and unless a storm tracked perfectly into existing cold, it would be real hard for Columbia and Faynam to be happy without Charleston and Asheville sighing.

Charleston, WV? Because rarely are Charleston, SC and Asheville happy at the same time with regard to snow. Asheville and Charleston, WV are often on the same wavelength, though.

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Charleston, WV? Because rarely are Charleston, SC and Asheville happy at the same time with regard to snow. Asheville and Charleston, WV are often on the same wavelength, though.

I think he's just saying that if Columbia is cashing in, more than likely Asheville doesn't see a lot of QPF and obviously Charleston would be rain. As we all know it's nearly impossible for a storm to make us all happy, and without a High pressure sitting up in NY its extremely difficult to make even a few of us happy.

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A slight tilt in the Earth's axis should do the trick...:)

It would be tough to make us all happy in both states. Generally what would make the mountains happy is bad news for Down Easters and unless a storm tracked perfectly into existing cold, it would be real hard for Columbia and Faynam to be happy without Charleston and Asheville sighing.

Yea i'm thinking the tilt on the axis would work just perfectly! lol :lmao: What you said is so true though, that's typically how it works out. Would be nice to get another Jan 2000 again though or better.

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Yeah I would say starting at 0z tonight and def by tomorrow afternoon's run. That doesn't mean it will nail it all down by then though. We will have to wait until tomorrow night/Thursday storm is moving out before all the models will start to get a good grasp on how our weekend storm will play out. Lots of model watching to follow. Then Thursday evening the NAM will start getting into it's zone

Yep this is going to be very fun to watch. I'll be in the zone the next couple of days with the models lol....going to be really hard to get any work done. Thankfully folks have been asking me about the weather including the president of the company. He even spotted me looking at the GFS and asked if there was a chance.

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Charleston, WV? Because rarely are Charleston, SC and Asheville happy at the same time with regard to snow. Asheville and Charleston, WV are often on the same wavelength, though.

Naw, Charleston, SC...I was being too Carolinacentric. My apologies.

Although I was in Charleston (well, Mt. Pleasant) for our major snow-ice storm in Feb. of 73.

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Yep this is going to be very fun to watch. I'll be in the zone the next couple of days with the models lol....going to be really hard to get any work done. Thankfully folks have been asking me about the weather including the president of the company. He even spotted me looking at the GFS and asked if there was a chance.

I was peeking at the 6Z GFS earlier when our section boss came in. He looked at the blob over our neck of the woods and frowned.

I asked him why he was unhappy.

"Because it's all green," he said. "When it's snow isn't that all blue?"

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Yep this is going to be very fun to watch. I'll be in the zone the next couple of days with the models lol....going to be really hard to get any work done. Thankfully folks have been asking me about the weather including the president of the company. He even spotted me looking at the GFS and asked if there was a chance.

LOL nice...... I have two screens up currently. One with my actual work on it and the other one with the models and this forum up. I have one of those security shields over the weather screen so passing coworkers wont know I'm slacking off haha. Hopefully it's going to be a looooong week of model watching and then we cash in big time this weekend. The ground is frozen solid so anything that falls will stick

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Yep this is going to be very fun to watch. I'll be in the zone the next couple of days with the models lol....going to be really hard to get any work done. Thankfully folks have been asking me about the weather including the president of the company. He even spotted me looking at the GFS and asked if there was a chance.

Indeed. Not much sleep will be attained by the looks of things. I've had my fair share of folks from the family and work asking me the same thing. :lol:

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LOL nice...... I have two screens up currently. One with my actual work on it and the other one with the models and this forum up. I have one of those security shields over the weather screen so passing coworkers wont know I'm slacking off haha. Hopefully it's going to be a looooong week of model watching and then we cash in big time this weekend. The ground is frozen solid so anything that falls will stick

Haha yea I got duel monitors as well, thankfully at work most of my stuff is free flowing and comes in spurts so I have time to mess around with these maps. Of course earlier today it was madness so all I could do was take a quick break and post a few tidbits on here. I consider this my smoke breaks since I don't smoke.

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lol - i was thinking this winter i'd get work done (since i did practically nothing last year, it seems) but so far thats a no go. the good is i am now my own boss with my own office, so i can look at whatever i want :devilsmiley: of course the downfall is that i can look at whatever i want :lol: so its still hard to get work done and keep up with the models and board :scooter:

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Haha yea I got duel monitors as well, thankfully at work most of my stuff is free flowing and comes in spurts so I have time to mess around with these maps. Of course earlier today it was madness so all I could do was take a quick break and post a few tidbits on here. I consider this my smoke breaks since I don't smoke.

Ditto! My boss takes a 10 min smoke break every hour so I think it is only fair I get a 10-15 minute weather break every hour.

Okay back on topic: The Euro is very close to giving us a big time winter storm..... not saying that is what will happen but it's much closer than the NAM or GFS. Usually the Euro is the one dashing our hopes so hopefully it will be the one that brings us hope this time around

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Yep this is going to be very fun to watch. I'll be in the zone the next couple of days with the models lol....going to be really hard to get any work done. Thankfully folks have been asking me about the weather including the president of the company. He even spotted me looking at the GFS and asked if there was a chance.

little play by play? You still have access to the Euro QPF maps?

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To be honest, if you give me the look at 500 on the 12z GFS, going negative tilt in the upstate of south carolina.....................that has the look of a good snow for the southern apps, and maybe even over into north carolina as the storm progresses. Fun to have something to follow.

I agree, this looks sweet for us!:snowman:

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Wonderful disco folks!! Good to see a little agreement with the Euro. Looking for more as the 00 runs tonight.

This thread has been point on all day.

Great for those who are having to check in and out (like me today). + been in a dead zone so the BlackBerry was not working right...

Matt, yes I do remember.... classic EURO showing then losing and showing a storm. We are getting closer to the EURO's wheel house so hopefully we can keep the trend alive and get a good winter storm for the Shelby/Gastonia/CLT area!

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