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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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It is as simple as needing the LP to be further S? I assume this would allow for more cold air to enter our region (Southern NC, upstate SC and NEGA).

If so then the trend needs to be of a south move with the LP.

I'm not sure, because part of the reason it gets cold enough in NW NC is that the storm is just far enough to begin phasing and has the dynamics to cause rapid dynamic cooling over that part of NC...if its further south, there still might not be enough cold aloft and the lower precip rates would surely not be enough for dynamic cooling, so its a tossup. I'd opt for futher south though. Either way, its going to be mighty close, so maybe the Euro can clear it up some, but they were already close for NC . This storm does have great potential though, I'd love to be sitting in n. Central to NW NC for this one, atleast right now until it changes.:lol: I'd also like to see the whole storm slow down 12 hours, its practically linked with our Thurs. event. We need colder air to sag south faster for southern NC and the Upstate...but with such a dynamic setup, there could be good wrap around with this storm as it moves out, which would yeild some consolation snow anyway.

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12Z GGEM is much weaker than the GFS. No phasing and it keeps the LP strung out off the SE coast. It is, however, a little colder than the GFS but it keeps most of the precip confined to the eastern Carolinas where it is primarily rain. Lots of time...this could go many different ways from here.

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Understanding that everyone is primarily focused on what may happen in the next week, looking ahead it seems that the models are strongly suggesting a Southeast warming to warm period commencing right after Christmas. Any long-rangers out there with ideas on where we're headed, especially with the blocking?

Much appreciated!

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SMOKY MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

1113 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2010

FOLLOWING IS THE SMOKY MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION

INFORMATION, VALID FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 7:30 AM.

STATION ELEV HIGH LOW PCPN SNOW DEPTH

SUGARLAND CENTER 1600 19 10 M 5

NEWFOUND GAP 5000 NO REPORT.

CADES COVE 1900 16 4 0.05 6

OCONALUFTEE 2040 19 3 0.01 4

MOUNT LECONTE 6400 -5 -9 M 21

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considering how the GGEM is warm biased, I'm surprised its as cold as it is for the Carolinas N GA region Saturday night. It has cold enough air into 85 corridor during Sat/Sat night, but only at the expense of it being suppressed somewhat. If we could combine its thermal profile with GFS moisture....

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I agree with much of what's been said: Without a nice HP to funnel in the cold, this is very, very, very, very unlikely to be a widespread winter storm outside the mountains of NC or south of NW NC. Could it happen? Yes. But without a good cold air source, it's going to be extreeeeeemly difficult for things to line up just perfectly, which is what it will take.

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Last night during DT's radio show for this upcoming weekend storm, I heard him mention how more amplified the system is when it's over in the southwest. He said to get a more amplified shortwave you need a ridge to the west and east of the wave. Could models be thinking temps are warmer prior to the event because of amplification thus leading to ridging in the east, or did I hear it wrong and it's just wishful thinking?

Thanks.

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I agree with much of what's been said: Without a nice HP to funnel in the cold, this is very, very, very, very unlikely to be a widespread winter storm outside the mountains of NC or south of NW NC. Could it happen? Yes. But without a good cold air source, it's going to be extreeeeeemly difficult for things to line up just perfectly, which is what it will take.

thats one thing i have learned as well - in the se you really really need a source of cold air (and cold air in place, as we know how well cold chasing moisture works). without a cold air source, a widespread winter storm just not likely (no matter how much we all wish cast :scooter: )

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I actually thought 12z GFS looked pretty decent for East Tennessee. That's pretty much a classic track for snow here. GOM low that traverses S GA, HP in the midwest feeding over a ton of snowpack. 850 passing to the East side of the Mountains as the bulk of precip arrives here.

I'll take that track right now over just about every other model out there for at least East Tn and the NC mountains.

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thats one thing i have learned as well - in the se you really really need a source of cold air (and cold air in place, as we know how well cold chasing moisture works). without a cold air source, a widespread winter storm just not likely (no matter how much we all wish cast :scooter: )

Very true! I think us GA folks are going to get some decent rain this weekend!

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Yes it is and my guess is because many of the mebers probably have much less phased solution. Perhaps similar to the GGEM.

I think there may still be some decent Ensembles that have moisture with the cold. Look how much moisture is showing up across the carolinas at 108 and 120. You would think if there are a lot of dry cold memebers in there pulling the avg 850 down making it colder then there wouldn't be as much of the moisture showing up as depicted in the average also.

We will se though soon I guess.

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Wow....the 12z Euro looks oh-so-close to a biggie to me. It keeps the energy a little too strung out at 500mb to really bomb out, but man, looking at that 500 vort charts, to me it looks so close to a big-time storm. Just a few ticks away...

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Not going to make many posts since the board is extremely slow. At 96 hours the zero runs from GSO to GA/SC/NC border to central Alabama. By 102 its dropped to RDU to GSP TO ATL with a 1008 low in no. Florida. By 108 hr theres a 1000mb low off of HAT, and the moisture is pulling out, looks like a cold chasing moisture scenario for some, but for some the cold is coming in while there is good lift and moisture and that would be in W. and northern NC, eastern TN and possibly n. GA to central NC region. It doesn't wrap up at that hour like the GFS but its further south and still a nice respectable overrunning system. It stays just offshore as it goes up the coast. Not a ton of qpf being a flat wave.

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Wow....the 12z Euro looks oh-so-close to a biggie to me. It keeps the energy a little too strung out at 500mb to really bomb out, but man, looking at that 500 vort charts, to me it looks so close to a big-time storm. Just a few ticks away...

I totally agree, this is ever so close to being one to remember for the N. Georgia to Maine corridor...a real big fat 80's system. The 5H shows great potential as the retrograding flow in the Lakes is almost perfect. I'm always worried about temps for this part of NC but we've inched a lot close to a possibility now, if we can get it to amplify and not remain terribly flow. The models are going to waffle with this, which makes it fun to follow. Hopefully we don't follow somehting hard for 3 more days only to have a dud drop on us either, like so often. I'd love to see about anyone get a 6" or more snowfall from this one, even if not here.

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Wow....the 12z Euro looks oh-so-close to a biggie to me. It keeps the energy a little too strung out at 500mb to really bomb out, but man, looking at that 500 vort charts, to me it looks so close to a big-time storm. Just a few ticks away...

Great to hear Matt! This far you just having a storm to track is good. The details will iron themselves out as we get closer. A long way away but the Dr. No seems to be saying don't give up hope yet!

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