December 14th and onward discussion thread

[Lookout]

I think Wed. night there is a weak high in WVA area and this model loses it, therefore its winds go southwesterly. Also the precip amounts aren't too high yet on the model, but if I bet if they were just a little more, you'd see it respond with wind barbs more from classic northeast position there.

Look what it does to winds in NC by day 7. Pops a small weak high yet again, and they go Northeast winds for NC by day 7. I think the model has a hard time with high placement. It looks weak right now, but pressures could build more as time wears on, with the vortex still strongly in place in the Northeast. Youre right, ssw winds don't give us freezing rain. I think winds are not shown properly.

00z Thur:

00z Fri:

You posted streamlines at the same time. Naturally lol.

I can't say I agree totally with that. The high is centered along the KY/WV border Wed morning and does not budge by wed evening while weakening to 1019mb by 0z Wed. This is supported by the euro (from the maps I see at least). That's Far far too weak and way too far west for it to be a player in ga/sc Wed imo. Plus I think temp profiles west of the mountains, which match up really well with those in ga/carolinas, argue against it as well.

The only chance I see is if some little meso high can form from it that locks it in longer here but that's trivial since most precip falls here when it's subfreezing anyway and apparently without it.

We are getting a bit ahead of ourselves though, have to remember this is 6 days away lol You can tell we are itching for something

[FoothillsNC]

You posted streamlines at the same time. Naturally lol.

I can't say I agree totally with that. The high is centered along the KY/WV border Wed morning and does not budge by wed evening while weakening to 1019mb by 0z Wed. This is supported by the euro (from the maps I see at least). That's Far far too weak and way too far west for it to be a player in ga/sc Wed imo. Plus I think temp profiles west of the mountains, which match up really well with those in ga/carolinas, argue against it as well.

The only chance I see is if some little meso high can form from it that locks it in longer here but that's trivial since most precip falls here when it's subfreezing anyway and apparently without it.

We are getting a bit ahead of ourselves though, have to remember this is 6 days away lol You can tell we are itching for something

who knows if this is damming, after last year's disaster with me, I'm not touching it yet LOL. Why can't we get a good classic damming we see coming from 5 days away like we used to get normally? Those were easy. I agree with pretty much what you wrote. I haven't really looked too much at it yet, and probably won't since it will surely change at 12 z anyway, but the one thing I always look for in keeping low level cold in is the location of confluence in the Northeast. Its there, and pretty strong and holds a long time but theres a lacking strong surface high. The pressure fields are murky but several models for a few runs now have hinted at damming isobars anyway, but maybe not the winds so much again I haven't scrutinized it at all really. With warm advection coming in so quickly , probably late Afternoon Wednesday for N. Georgia, regardless of whether a model actually shows a high in the east somewhere, or not, the surface winds *should* go northeasterly , maybe not at a thick layer of the atmosphere though, especially with such a weak high. I've seen it right here in my area a lot, even in CADS where its above freezing, (which is most cads), the surface winds have switched from southeasterly to northeasterly to due north in the middle of a precip event. Moderate events work this best to make that happen, IMO, light precip not so much.

At any rate, lets see if the Euro places any type of high there yet. One thing I'm "almost" sure of is the low level cold east of the Apps from Atlanta to points northeast will probably be pretty cold at the surface, even in the face of 850's going up to +6 or so. They almost always scour out the low level cold much too quickly, so whether or not its still a freezing layer or not, dont' know yet, probably would be to start and inch up toward 32 or mid 30's for some areas by midday Thursday. Weird to see the low level cold on the other side of the mountains as well. I don't really want to see any freezing drizzle out of this, its messy to drive around in. Some sleet would be ok, but we may not have enough thick cold for that , atleast for long. Still a long ways to follow this, or not. LOL.

[Buckethead]

This is exactly what I love about southern winter weather. It seems like we see something different every year! I was so confused looking at the meteostar page when I saw SW winds, until you guys cleared it up, so thank you for that. I'm going to go back to being quiet and reading now.

[John1122]

06z GFS was pretty interesting. Sadly it's the 06z gfs.

[strongwxnc]

Keep us updated on that.

Goodluck!!!

The mets around here, including myself, have basically thrown their hands up and said "we won't know until it starts basically". This event is going to be a Nowcast thing for the Nashville area for sure.

[HKY_WX]

Looking at the 6z gfs soundings, this has the looks of a snow to ice scenario for NC. Mainly sparked by a weak pacific jet system and extremely low dewpoints/in-situ CAD. I could see a scenario with a run of the mill 1-3 inches followed by a glaze of sleet/zr on top is possible for central and northern NC, with 1/4 to 1/3 inch of sleet/zr over southern NC/NW SC and N GA. With the huge block, these systems are going to be more E to W oriented instead of SW to NE during a normal nina. Low's on Tue morning could be in the single digits with TD's below zero. So this system will be running off of that.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

06z GFS looks quite interesting. Of course it will change, but this got my attention.

http://www.emc.ncep....te.html#picture (look at the 174h panel)

Taken at face value this would be a SN to IP to ZR set-up for the NC damming areas.

[HKY_WX]

I'll prob' get burned for analyzing the gfs this closely on day 5, but this is the scenario. Below is the HKY gfs profile just b/f the precip starts Wed' night at 11pm. You can see how most of the upper level winds b/n 500mb down to 800mb are at a westerly degree and saturated. Also you can see the huge dewpoint depression at the sfc with the Td being -11C and sfc temp at -2C. This makes sense b/c morning temps on tuesday and wednesday are going to be around 10 in the piedmont. So once the precip starts, the temp jumps down to the mid 20's in HKY.

With no strong SLP system ,there is no way we go above freezing. So just hope this system remains the .5QPF type of system b/c if it trends stronger and more amplified, then there is going to be more WAA. However, when you look at the NH map below on the 120hr gfs, you can see the next block developing over greenland/northern canada with the suppressing 50/50 low. So I think the odds are against it becoming too amplified. The storm itself is that wave over southern Idaho.

[UNCCmetgrad]

At first i thought so too but to me this doesn't fit the bill imo. At no point do the winds turn east. In fact, soundings show just the opposite. Wed morning winds are northwest and they turn SSW by the evening. This is a really unique situation the gfs is showing here. It is showing what amounts to a fairly significant amount of freezing rain without so much as a hit of an east wind at any point.

Anyone recall significant freezing rain in georgia with west or SSW winds? Bizarre.

Wed am, we start out really cold again. Teens and dps near 0.

Date: 5.5 day AVN valid 12Z WED 15 DEC 10
Station: KAHN
Latitude:   33.95
Longitude: -83.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
	mb 	m 	C 	C    %   C 	C  deg knt   K 	K 	K 	K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   150                                                         		
SFC  990   228  -7.1 -17.1  45 10.0  -9.4 320   2 266.8 267.0 264.4 269.6  1.01
 2  950   553  -3.6 -23.8  19 20.2  -7.8 303   6 273.6 273.7 268.2 275.3  0.59
 3  900   983   0.3 -22.9  15 23.3  -5.3 288  14 281.9 282.0 273.4 283.9  0.67
 4  850  1441  -0.5 -11.8  42 11.3  -4.2 290  21 285.7 286.0 277.2 291.0  1.82
 5  800  1924  -1.8  -7.2  67  5.4  -3.8 290  30 289.2 289.7 280.1 297.3  2.78
 6  750  2437  -3.1  -7.2  73  4.1  -4.7 287  36 293.2 293.7 282.1 302.0  2.96
 7  700  2981  -4.9  -8.6  75  3.7  -6.3 285  41 297.1 297.6 283.7 305.7  2.85

Here is the athens sounding for 0z thur. Note the entire boundary layer in both instances have a westerly component. So this is not insitu damming imo.

Date: 6 day AVN valid 0Z THU 16 DEC 10
Station: KAHN
Latitude:   33.95
Longitude: -83.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
	mb 	m 	C 	C    %   C 	C  deg knt   K 	K 	K 	K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   146                                                         		
SFC  990   228  -1.0  -2.1  92  1.2  -1.4 200   4 273.0 273.5 272.3 282.0  3.30
 2  950   554  -1.8  -2.9  92  1.1  -2.3 228   9 275.3 275.9 273.6 284.2  3.24
 3  900   986   1.8   1.3  96  0.5   1.5 247  23 283.4 284.2 279.7 296.4  4.66
 4  850  1451   4.3   4.1  99  0.2   4.2 254  40 290.6 291.7 284.5 307.9  6.03
 5  800  1944   3.4   3.3  99  0.2   3.3 260  48 294.8 295.9 286.2 312.4  6.05
 6  750  2466   1.0   0.9  99  0.2   1.0 267  50 297.7 298.7 286.6 313.8  5.44
 7  700  3019  -1.7  -1.9  98  0.2  -1.8 275  50 300.6 301.5 287.1 315.0  4.76

This is simply moisture over running a retreating arctic boundary/airmass. But it's unusual to have in georgia since by far most IP/FR systems have some form of insitu, hybrid, or full blown cad. It's something you would be more likely to see in the plains. By 06z to 12z, thur it will be in the 40s. (nearly 50 in atlanta by 12z!)

Accumulations won't be the story with this system if it played out like the gfs, it will be the fact that north Georgia/upstate sc roads will be a skating rink for a little while since the ground will be a block of ice this time.

Your right Lookout, I didn't rally bother looking at wind profiles. It is possible the GFS cannot resolve the small scale features associated with in situ events, but if you are right this is a very unique situation for this area of the country. That is something you would more expect to see out in the plains. Looking at the 06Z run of the GFS shows a much more significant event with precip starting as snow and quickly transitioning to freezing rain. It looks like Foothills was right about the model responding to higher QPF amounts as after the precip has fallen for a few hours winds in the lowest levels shift from SW to an ENE direction. Looks like total precip on this run are about an inch around CLT area and temperatures falling to the upper 20's gradually warming to just above freezing as the precip comes to an end early in the afternoon on Thursday.

Edit...I should add this is all dependent on what happens with the evolution of the strong storm that will develop in the next day or two. This will play a part in determining where the axis of heaviest precipitation will fall or whether this will be an event at all.

[Cold Rain]

I know we have a block but I do not like that massive trough over the E Pac and western US

I agree with this. As long as we have such a massive trough or a vortex sitting at/near the GOA, it's going to be hard to get a big, widespread winter storm around here. Not saying it can't happen, but I certainly would feel better if we could get rid of or move that feature. It basically sits there through the whole period on the GFS.

[FLO]

60's and rain Thurs. and Fri. next week. Ridiculous.

[buckeyefan1]

60's and rain Thurs. and Fri. next week. Ridiculous.

:unsure:

CAE....

101215/1500Z 135 15003KT 30.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

101215/1800Z 138 23005KT 38.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

101215/2100Z 141 24008KT 35.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

101216/0000Z 144 24006KT 31.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.02 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

101216/0300Z 147 23006KT 32.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.063|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

101216/0600Z 150 23007KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 0.17 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

101216/0900Z 153 22005KT 33.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.063|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

101216/1200Z 156 21005KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

[FLO]

:unsure:

CAE....

101215/1500Z 135 15003KT 30.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

101215/1800Z 138 23005KT 38.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

101215/2100Z 141 24008KT 35.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

101216/0000Z 144 24006KT 31.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.02 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

101216/0300Z 147 23006KT 32.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.063|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

101216/0600Z 150 23007KT 32.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.091|| 0.17 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

101216/0900Z 153 22005KT 33.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.063|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

101216/1200Z 156 21005KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

That is just wrong. Any chance that changes?

[DaculaWeather]

Yea, I was just reading that. What models are THEY looking at??? I really don't get that at all.

[rduwx]

What did the euro show last night for Thursday? I don't have access to the surface maps yet this year. I'm still debating if I want to renew my subscription this year. Last year was well worth it because we were constantly tracking something.

[UNCCmetgrad]

What did the euro show last night for Thursday? I don't have access to the surface maps yet this year. I'm still debating if I want to renew my subscription this year. Last year was well worth it because we were constantly tracking something.

The EURO shows precip not beginning until Thursday evening which gives the arctic air more time to retreat. This would mean rain for most except the favored areas in foothills and the nw piedmont of North Carolina from say Hickory to Statesville and points north.

[SBUWX23]

What did the euro show last night for Thursday? I don't have access to the surface maps yet this year. I'm still debating if I want to renew my subscription this year. Last year was well worth it because we were constantly tracking something.

From Allans maps, it appears its much slower/weaker with the system and looking at 850 temps it would be a zr,ip event depending on surface temps.

[HWY316wx]

Yea, I was just reading that. What models are THEY looking at??? I really don't get that at all.

Not sure which thread it is in, but one of the t.v. Mets said they just won't go out and tell the general public... chance of a real mess 6 days from now. They will get crucified by the general Joe Smoe if the future changes on them.

For us weather geeks we get the joy of saying we told you so. But in fairness to the t.v. and public mets, they have been burned so many times, they play it safe until 3-5 days out when the average person might start looking at the weather.

I am surprised there has not been more hype about the cold out break from Sunday to Wednesday... it is going to be brutal.

[rduwx]

Thanks for the info UNCC and SBU....I appreciate it!

[WXinCanton]

I found this a little interesting. it only goes out to hour 126 though

[DaculaWeather]

Not sure which thread it is in, but one of the t.v. Mets said they just won't go out and tell the general public... chance of a real mess 6 days from now. They will get crucified by the general Joe Smoe if the future changes on them.

For us weather geeks we get the joy of saying we told you so. But in fairness to the t.v. and public mets, they have been burned so many times, they play it safe until 3-5 days out when the average person might start looking at the weather.

I am surprised there has not been more hype about the cold out break from Sunday to Wednesday... it is going to be brutal.

I read his post but still... we're talking BIG differences, not just 5 degrees or so. THAT's what I don't get. I would want to be as close as possible if it were me.

[strongwxnc]

This is off the 06 gfs.

Not only can you see the nice COLD but HRS 141-150 show a total of 0.27" while temps are under 32.

However, 850's warm to 0 and above at 138...

[Lookout]

Your right Lookout, I didn't rally bother looking at wind profiles. It is possible the GFS cannot resolve the small scale features associated with in situ events, but if you are right this is a very unique situation for this area of the country. That is something you would more expect to see out in the plains. Looking at the 06Z run of the GFS shows a much more significant event with precip starting as snow and quickly transitioning to freezing rain. It looks like Foothills was right about the model responding to higher QPF amounts as after the precip has fallen for a few hours winds in the lowest levels shift from SW to an ENE direction. Looks like total precip on this run are about an inch around CLT area and temperatures falling to the upper 20's gradually warming to just above freezing as the precip comes to an end early in the afternoon on Thursday.

Edit...I should add this is all dependent on what happens with the evolution of the strong storm that will develop in the next day or two. This will play a part in determining where the axis of heaviest precipitation will fall or whether this will be an event at all.

Yep, me either at first. I saw it and just assumed it was lol. I

t's not surprising the gfs is showing some damming over the carolinas considering that this run brings precip into north carolina much more aggresively than the prior run. The southeast is surrounding by a generally weak pressure field which normally makes it easier for some sort of meso high feature to form over the carolinas as the atmosphere responds to the cold and saturated airmass.

That said, what goes on in georgia is still not damming on the gfs imho. On the 06z run, it actually does progress to a insitu damming scenerio over nc but the intitial airmass and freezing precip over ga is not related to that. That happens too late for it to be factor here.

However, if the precip can move into the carolinas quicker (ahead of us) and allows that high to form, then it's very possible it could become a player. Right now though as it stands it's not.

[Lookout]

who knows if this is damming, after last year's disaster with me, I'm not touching it yet LOL. Why can't we get a good classic damming we see coming from 5 days away like we used to get normally? Those were easy. I agree with pretty much what you wrote. I haven't really looked too much at it yet, and probably won't since it will surely change at 12 z anyway, but the one thing I always look for in keeping low level cold in is the location of confluence in the Northeast. Its there, and pretty strong and holds a long time but theres a lacking strong surface high. The pressure fields are murky but several models for a few runs now have hinted at damming isobars anyway, but maybe not the winds so much again I haven't scrutinized it at all really. With warm advection coming in so quickly , probably late Afternoon Wednesday for N. Georgia, regardless of whether a model actually shows a high in the east somewhere, or not, the surface winds *should* go northeasterly , maybe not at a thick layer of the atmosphere though, especially with such a weak high. I've seen it right here in my area a lot, even in CADS where its above freezing, (which is most cads), the surface winds have switched from southeasterly to northeasterly to due north in the middle of a precip event. Moderate events work this best to make that happen, IMO, light precip not so much.

At any rate, lets see if the Euro places any type of high there yet. One thing I'm "almost" sure of is the low level cold east of the Apps from Atlanta to points northeast will probably be pretty cold at the surface, even in the face of 850's going up to +6 or so. They almost always scour out the low level cold much too quickly, so whether or not its still a freezing layer or not, dont' know yet, probably would be to start and inch up toward 32 or mid 30's for some areas by midday Thursday. Weird to see the low level cold on the other side of the mountains as well. I don't really want to see any freezing drizzle out of this, its messy to drive around in. Some sleet would be ok, but we may not have enough thick cold for that , atleast for long. Still a long ways to follow this, or not. LOL.

Yeah, it sure would be nice to have a slam dunk cad scenerio wouldn't it? Sigh..it seems like those are a thing of the past lol

But I know what you mean and I'm not saying at all that won't happen over nc. In all likely hood, there will be some feature like that form IF the 06z is right and it moves that much precip in that quickly. But like I said above, it happens to late for us as it stands right now. We would need the precip to come in and fall over the carolinas quicker than ga for us to benefit from it. I certainly think the gfs warms north ga up a little too quick that night since if you look at the boundary layer winds, there is no strong low level jet or flow to scour that airmass out as quickly as the gfs is doing.

It's interesting to see the 06z run showing such a cold airmass. We are talking lows that morning in the teens and barely cracking 32 before the sleet/FZ moves in with wetbulbs in the mid 20s. If we wetbulb that low, it would be a first to see it scour out as quickly as the gfs is advertising. Then again, this is going to be a first period if it plays out with west/southwest winds in georgia the entire time.

Like I said though, this system really has the potential to cause some really slick conditions. The ground will be totally frozen so every drop will likely freeze. Going to be some bad roads for a time.

[FoothillsNC]

the 12Z GFS has a heck of a upslope event for Tenn/NC and has good snowshowers into northern Alabama and Georgia even down to Atlanta Sunday afternoon and night. There's pockets of -20 at 850 in Tenn and Ky, with the picture perfect wind direction for blizzard condition snows in northeast Tenn and western NC. Snow showers probably even make it across the Apps into part of northern NC as well. As for what falls ahead of the cold front in western NC mountains, still a very tough call. I'm not positive it will be mostly rain there. I won't be surprised to see somewhere between Asheville and Boone come out with a 6" snow event ahead of the main upslope event. But the upslope following looks amazing there.Oops looks like I posted in the wrong thread.

[NEGa]

the 12Z GFS has a heck of a upslope event for Tenn/NC and has good snowshowers into northern Alabama and Georgia even down to Atlanta Sunday afternoon and night. There's pockets of -20 at 850 in Tenn and Ky, with the picture perfect wind direction for blizzard condition snows in northeast Tenn and western NC. Snow showers probably even make it across the Apps into part of northern NC as well. As for what falls ahead of the cold front in western NC mountains, still a very tough call. I'm not positive it will be mostly rain there. I won't be surprised to see somewhere between Asheville and Boone come out with a 6" snow event ahead of the main upslope event. But the upslope following looks amazing there.

i just saw the maps and was wondering how close a call it is going to be. the problem on my end is that the snow depth (yes i know unreliable) is showing something tantalizingly close. the temps are close. so while i 'know' the set up will screw us, its that small possibility that gets you hooked and hopeful, only to have the hopes dashed as the rain moves out, temps drop below freezing then out comes the sun

[DaculaWeather]

the 12Z GFS has a heck of a upslope event for Tenn/NC and has good snowshowers into northern Alabama and Georgia even down to Atlanta Sunday afternoon and night. There's pockets of -20 at 850 in Tenn and Ky, with the picture perfect wind direction for blizzard condition snows in northeast Tenn and western NC. Snow showers probably even make it across the Apps into part of northern NC as well. As for what falls ahead of the cold front in western NC mountains, still a very tough call. I'm not positive it will be mostly rain there. I won't be surprised to see somewhere between Asheville and Boone come out with a 6" snow event ahead of the main upslope event. But the upslope following looks amazing there.Oops looks like I posted in the wrong thread.

Hey, you're good with me!!! I get confused about which thread I'm reading anyway!

[rduwx]

the 12Z GFS has a heck of a upslope event for Tenn/NC and has good snowshowers into northern Alabama and Georgia even down to Atlanta Sunday afternoon and night. There's pockets of -20 at 850 in Tenn and Ky, with the picture perfect wind direction for blizzard condition snows in northeast Tenn and western NC. Snow showers probably even make it across the Apps into part of northern NC as well. As for what falls ahead of the cold front in western NC mountains, still a very tough call. I'm not positive it will be mostly rain there. I won't be surprised to see somewhere between Asheville and Boone come out with a 6" snow event ahead of the main upslope event. But the upslope following looks amazing there.Oops looks like I posted in the wrong thread.

...I did that earlier today. Had to delete my post and put it in the other one.

[FoothillsNC]

Hey, you're good with me!!! I get confused about which thread I'm reading anyway!

...I did that earlier today. Had to delete my post and put it in the other one.

Ha, since this is the Dec 14 beyond thread, still looks like some zr or sleet to start comes in northern Ms, Ala, Ga and southern Tenn starting Wednesday sometime. The 2M temps keep it subfreezing for Atlanta a while. I wouldn't trust 2m temps yet, but theres 1016 high in eastern Ky or WVa area so the cold at low levels is on both sides of the Apps and most likely furthern south, this setup screams weak overrunning freezing drizzle or light Freezing rain, with snow or sleet on the front end esp. the futher east and north you get in those states. The vortex in New England is still there holding in confluence. Models always mess up low level temps when that happens, so in my opinion this our first real legit ice threat (Wed night/Thursday) The cold air and low dewpoints with this airmass are going to be like nothing we had last year with those systems. Brings back memories from 5 years ago, or more.

[pcbjr]

I know its 8 days out and beyond, but the models (plural) generally seem to be breaking down the cold pattern after about the 18th/19th. Something to watch (given this thread is "December 14th and onward...").

Any thoughts on pattern change, implications, duration?

Thanks!