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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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Sure sign models are not showing much if anything. It's very quiet in here this morning. 17.7 this morning

Weekend event looks most promising to me IMO. Thursday is to iffy for us on 1) moisture/ no more than .25 avg and Staying all Snow, would be ice/mix mostly and will have to work with whatever cold air we can wetbulb to, then count on it to sustain itself w/o any help. Don't write it off, still to early, but low impact. 12 z and 0z trends tonight should tell the tale in regards Thursday. Winds decoupled at the house and hit 13. Got to hit the phase just right Saturday and it could be a dandy.

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8.9 Wonderful degrees this morning!!!!

Lowest of the year for me.

You keep on talking like that and I will keep reading!!

Weekend event looks most promising to me IMO. Thursday is to iffy for us on 1) moisture/ no more than .25 avg and Staying all Snow, would be ice/mix mostly and will have to work with whatever cold air we can wetbulb to, then count on it to sustain itself w/o any help. Don't write it off, still to early, but low impact. 12 z and 0z trends tonight should tell the tale in regards Thursday. Winds decoupled at the house and hit 13. Got to hit the phase just right Saturday and it could be a dandy.

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My low this year was 10.9 on January 9th. I just got a new script working that displays the highs and lows for each day of the year in a table. The cells background color varies based on the temp. Very slick. Today won't be updated until midnight. http://www.daculawea...tempdetails.php

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locals say high here today will be around 29

I think that is probably way too warm for you. There's a pocket of -16 about to enter nw NC and the cold advection aloft should really keep all of northern NC very cold today. Where you are I'd go for 24 to 26. Even down here I'm forecasting 30 at best.

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Some records got set down in SC last night. Last I checked, Augusta was 12 degrees still around 8:30AM. The windchill is pretty brutal also. They are forecasting a high of 38 here in the Columbia area. I think I'll just build a fire and figure out a way to get the heated air from the living room to go through the air ducts to keep everything warm. This electric bill is gonna suck.

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The overnight discussion from RAH seems they don't really know where to go with Thursday's storm or this weekend's storm. I liked how they used the word chaos to describe the forecast for the Thursday storm and they are using a broad forecast for now. They did say this weekend could be a significant winter storm that needs watching.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 315 AM...

LATEST GFS HAS REDUCED THE VERY TIGHT 850 MILLIBAR PRESSURE

GRADIENT OVER NORTH CAROLINA FOR THURSDAY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...

WITH GFS DROPPING WINDS AT GREENSBORO FIFTEEN KNOTS OR SO... DOWN

TO A STILL BRISK 30 KNOTS. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES AT NEAR 50 KNOTS

WITH THE NAM UNDER 20 KNOTS. THIS MAKES ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE

WORLD IN ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR... THROWING

PRECIPITATION TYPE...TIMING... AND CHANGE OF TYPE INTO CHAOS.

ALTHOUGH THE NAM PERHAPS UNDERDONE IN ITS WINDS... IT HAS BEEN

ROCK STEADY IN DEPICTING A QUICK MILLER B COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT

THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHUNTING THIS LOW OUT TO SEA. THE NAM

FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH MELTING SNOW ALOFT

CREATING A LARGE ISOTHERMAL LAYER ALOFT NEAR FREEZING... DELAYING

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT. THE NAM GENEROUS

PRECIPITATION IS CLEARLY EXPLAINED BY ITS WELL DEFINED SPEED

CONVERGENCE AT 850 MILLIBARS AS IT BRINGS A FIFTY KNOT JET INTO

THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT FROM SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GRADIENT ON OTHER

MODELS IS NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED... WHICH DILUTES THE POTENTIAL

LIFT... DELAYING PRECIPITATION.

AT THIS TIME FAVORING THE NAM BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THIS WOULD

BRING SNOW... OR RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE WEST BEFORE SUNRISE

THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE A BIT BEFORE PRECIPITATION DROPS

THE NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING... WITH THE SOUTH IN THE MID 30S. NOT AT

ALL SOLD ON THE SEVEN TO TEN DEGREE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES IN

THE FORECAST... AS EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION COULD LIMIT THE RISE

TO ONLY A FEW DEGREES... ESPECIALLY WEST. HAVE DELAYED ALL RAIN

TRANSITION TO AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH... AND POTENTIALLY TO LATE IN

THE DAY. AN EARLIER TRANSITION IN THE WARMER SOUTH.

DISCUSSION OF AMOUNTS... TIMING... AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH SO

LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOLLY. WILL KEEP THINGS AS BROAD AS

POSSIBLE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN OUTLINED

ABOVE.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH

ALOFT WILL APPROACH/OVERSPREAD A SURFACE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE AND

RESULTANT CORRIDOR OF PROBABLE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GULF TO THE

MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS... WHICH WARRANTS CHANCE POPS... THROUGH THE

PERIOD. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION... IF IT INDEED MATERIALIZES...

WOULD LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... IT COULD

TRANSITIONING TO FROZEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COASTAL CYCLONE

DEEPENS AND DRAWS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS

POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING... AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL

FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND

NORTHEAST... PROVIDED THE POLAR VORTEX OVER THE NORTHEAST AT PRESENT

LIFTS/RELAXES NORTHWARD (IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED

RETROGRESSION OF THE BLOCKING HIGH)... AND SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWS FOR

SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION DEPICTED BY RECENT GFS RUNS AND

EC RUNS FROM 2-3 DAYS AGO. THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A

FASTER AND WEAKER... MORE ZONAL STORM TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST OWING

TO A MORE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX AND SHEARING WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW

ALOFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... AS DEPICTED BY THE MORE RECENT

RUNS OF THE EC. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION.. FOR NOW... SEEMS BEST GIVEN

THE BLOCKY AND DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE PATTERN ALOFT.

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While cold last night, it still was not as cold for most in NC as last week. Charlotte got down to 15 this morning, whereas it got down to 12 last week.

Yea I was kinda surprised CLT did not get lower than that as they are usually one of the colder locations around here. I did see that Gastonia reached 11 degrees this morning.

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Yea I was kinda surprised CLT did not get lower than that as they are usually one of the colder locations around here. I did see that Gastonia reached 11 degrees this morning.

The winds didn't decouple. This kept temps up a bit. NWS forecasted a low here of 13 last night. We only made 18.

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JB this morning.

I expect modeling to consolidate on a healthy storm that will bring snows from the Tennessee valley to the coastal mid and north atlantic states this weekend

Sounds like the kiss of death to me, but maybe that's just because I am still burning from his "blizzard" call for the southern apps 2 years ago that didn't happen, or his other numerous calls for a southern apps storm that never happened.

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While cold last night, it still was not as cold for most in NC as last week. Charlotte got down to 15 this morning, whereas it got down to 12 last week.

Wait till tonight. Winds will die quickly after sunset. I'm thinking MBY has a shot at 9, we'll see if ideal radiational conditions set up. DP will suport single digits and if I max out say 29-30 and no wind, should be able to do it.

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