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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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Canadian sounded pretty good on the weekend storm according to dt on the radio show if I interpreted what he said correctly for some wintry this weekend. we will see I guess.

it looks about the same as the GFS. SFC low in NW SC with cold air probably NW NC at that time, heavy qpf amounts in the carolinas and right at the end it may be going over to snow in parts of NC but overall we need to see the surface low and cold air futher south, imo. Time for this to change some.

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it looks about the same as the GFS. SFC low in NW SC with cold air probably NW NC at that time, heavy qpf amounts in the carolinas and right at the end it may be going over to snow in parts of NC but overall we need to see the surface low and cold air futher south, imo. Time for this to change some.

oh and it will... hopefully for the better. i'm thinking either this is a wash out or a pretty good thump of snow

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I heard that call from n. CLT. DT had north and west of CLT in mostly snow, if I recall.

Yeah he actually did take a CLT call I had my area code wrong for the one he lost after that. Anyway it looks like the key element for us is what happens with the energy in the upper Midwest. It definitely preserved the initial phasing though which is the best sign.

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Yeah he actually did take a CLT call I had my area code wrong for the one he lost after that. Anyway it looks like the key element for us is what happens with the energy in the upper Midwest. It definitely preserved the initial phasing though which is the best sign.

Yeah didnt DT say that we should hope that the high in the upper midwest to drop in on the shortwave or something like that?

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Yeah didnt DT say that we should hope that the high in the upper midwest to drop in on the shortwave or something like that?

Well he was saying the 500mb low off the PAC NW coast is preventing the northern stream from really diving in with some energy. For us in the south what we would want to see is a real solid parent high at the surface right over Ontario/Western NY. That would be our cold air feed in optimal conditions.

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0z starts around 1am, and should be out to 5 days by 1:30... Shoving all in on an OTS track atm, but the lack of cold via a parent high is a sig reason for concern.

:weight_lift:

How does that help most of us in the SE if the low were to go OTS? Or are you just not wanting the folks up further north to have something to be all giddy about? lol

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How does that help most of us in the SE if the low were to go OTS? Or are you just not wanting the folks up further north to have something to be all giddy about? lol

It is more fact than fiction here in NC, and the SE as a whole...

Most storms that effect western NC with heavy snow, will not effect areas north of southeast VA and the lower Delmarva with heavy precip.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/hickory.html

Most storms that effect eastern NC with heavy snow, will not effect areas north of southeast VA and the lower Delmarva with heavy precip.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/raleigh.html

I could care less about being "giddy," as a major winter storm within 5 hours of here is :bike: . :snowman:

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I don't think I ever seen the locals so far apart on forecast for Saturday :huh:

This NW Piedmont of NC Winston-Salem, Greensboro area

Ch. 2 Sat. sunny 40

Ch.8 60% chance rain 40

Ch.12 sunny 39

Ch. 14 Chance snow

Here's my updated forecast, Looks like NWS not thrilled about weekend either. :yikes:

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN

SNOW LIKELY WITH SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION

POSSIBLE. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE MORNING. RAIN. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. RAIN IN THE

EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A

CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A

CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY

SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

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I don't think I ever seen the locals so far apart on forecast for Saturday :huh:

This NW Piedmont of NC Winston-Salem, Greensboro area

Ch. 2 Sat. sunny 40

Ch.8 60% chance snow 38

Ch.12 sunny 39

Ch. 14 Chance snow

Here's my updated forecast, Looks like NWS not thrilled about weekend either. :yikes:

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN

SNOW LIKELY WITH SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION

POSSIBLE. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE MORNING. RAIN. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE. RAIN IN THE

EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS

IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A

CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

.SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A

CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY

SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

They will cover their butt within a day or so

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