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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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Looks like the NAM shows snow quickly turning to sleet and freezing rain for the southern piedmont. It then quickly brings surface temperatures above freezing for everyone south of I-40 by mid morning. However I think places that receive some heavier precipitation will stay right around the freezing mark a little longer than those who only receive light precip. This could make a lot of difference in that freezing rain at 32 degrees with very cold ground temperatures can be much worse then when you have 32 degrees and relatively warm ground temps.

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Looks like the NAM shows snow quickly turning to sleet and freezing rain for the southern piedmont. It then quickly brings surface temperatures above freezing for everyone south of I-40 by mid morning. However I think places that receive some heavier precipitation will stay right around the freezing mark a little longer than those who only receive light precip. This could make a lot of difference in that freezing rain at 32 degrees with very cold ground temperatures can be much worse then when you have 32 degrees and relatively warm ground temps.

This is a very good point !!!

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Has the GGEM came out yet? If so, could someone tell me what it's showing for the weekend storm. As for the GFS, at least we have something to follow. I can't say i'm encouraged by what i'm seeing temperature wise though. Still quite a few more days to go though, so anything can happen.

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If the 850's don't warm up nearly as much as the GFS shows around hour 114, then we got some things in line for a signifcant WNC storm. As the guys mentioned prior to my phone call, that be end up being a normal bias of the GFS. There's plenty of time of this to change but this run looks quite tempting.

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