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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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5 inches for KTRI - I certainly can't buy what the NAM is selling. These events, unfortunately don't work out well with WAA moisture this side of the Apps. Almost always is a little bit of snow/ice followed by rain. I guess the positive thing is, at least it's something to keep an eye on.

On the other hand, KTRI is overdue for this kind of event. I can remember one storm during the winter of 85'-86' that dumped 3-4 inches and was followed by rain. I remember having a snowball fight in the rain. But yes, the warm nose almost always gets us. Just to play the flipside of the coin. There have been very few Decembers w/ this much artic air in place and some snow on the ground. I think the timing is most important IMO. If the precip moves in early enough Thursday night(predicted high on Weds. is 33 @ KTRI), we could be in business. If the precip is delayed, I think the well-known warm scenario plays out. Should be interesting to watch. Still holding out hope for the 12z UKMET for this weekend. I remember some models started very far SE on the Minnesota blizzard before bringing it north...Glad to see all of these TN posters on the board. I know your are an "old timer," but lots of new faces since we've gone to American.

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On the other hand, KTRI is overdue for this kind of event. I can remember one storm during the winter of 85'-86' that dumped 3-4 inches and was followed by rain. I remember having a snowball fight in the rain. But yes, the warm nose almost always gets us. Just to play the flipside of the coin. There have been very few Decembers w/ this much artic air in place and some snow on the ground. I think the timing is most important IMO. If the precip moves in early enough Thursday night(predicted high on Weds. is 33 @ KTRI), we could be in business. If the precip is delayed, I think the well-known warm scenario plays out. Should be interesting to watch. Still holding out hope for the 12z UKMET for this weekend. I remember some models started very far SE on the Minnesota blizzard before bringing it north...Glad to see all of these TN posters on the board. I know your are an "old timer," but lots of new faces since we've gone to American.

What we are due for is a "cold" Miller A..................wish we could get one of those for everyone in the southeast. Going to be hard to do this year, but next year could shape up quite nicely (from reading a lot of thoughts on long range stuff) Anyway, yes i agree, should be interesting to watch unfold. Maybe this is the year it just wants to snow. Kind of like the mid-atlantic last year. One can hope i suppose. I also agree it's good to see a lot of TN posters in here. This forum, and eastern too, is and was great for a weather enthusiast.

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Patience...must let the pot simmer. First we get the low in the proper position, then we get the cold. Just have to let it bubble a while, lol. If we get a low with cold air that isn't just a distant memory, even if it is stale... over this cold ground...that is when we can see a turn over from just cold rain...of course it is apt to be a hell ice storm, if it is insitu :whistle:

It sure is nice out. That wind gives it a good bite. Does it take away the pain of this past endless summer? No...but it is a start :thumbsup: T

Patience ? Lolol not here when it comes to winter wx :snowman: I was thinking last nit that being just a few days away we were looking in pretty good shape. Silly me, this is the se what was I thinking :whistle: Granted temps could be that stupid 1 degree too warm, but with the airmass over us, the cold across the country and that there is so much snow up north temps might be ok. But if there is no qpf then the temps won't help us ( watch us now get 2" of rain at 33 lol)

HAPPY BIRTHDAY Brandon!!! Wish you the best Bro!

Ditto :thumbsup: Happy birthday!,

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Patience ? Lolol not here when it comes to winter wx :snowman: I was thinking last nit that being just a few days away we were looking in pretty good shape. Silly me, this is the se what was I thinking :whistle: Granted temps could be that stupid 1 degree too warm, but with the airmass over us, the cold across the country and that there is so much snow up north temps might be ok. But if there is no qpf then the temps won't help us ( watch us now get 2" of rain at 33 lol)

I'll take 2" of rain. I'm still hungry for rain to keep the drought at bay.

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yeah the slp track is a classic se snowstorm track out of the GOM and along the coast of sc nc. would really like to see more models converge on this solution as its in the 5 to 7 day range now. still alot of time left for shifting back and forth.

let me rephrase that classic ++SN track for I-40 north.

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126 on the GFS is looking too warm for most of us in the SE without elevation, and I think 18z is about to drop a bomb on the NE. I could be wrong though.

That looks like a Hickory SN track thru 126 hrs, way to close to the coast for alot of folks... After that is crushes north central NC, and up into VA. The area between Greensboro and Danville would likely get a foot if this verified.

post-382-0-43351300-1292279140.png

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That looks like a Hickory SN track thru 126 hrs, way to close to the coast for alot of folks... After that is crushes north central NC, and up into VA. The area between Greensboro and Danville would likely get a foot if this verified.

Looking closer at the maps I have access to it looks like RDU is close to being crushed at 132, they are right on that fine line.

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Verbatim it would be another north of 40 west of 85 special as Weather NC said (leaving me shafted at my bday for the second consecutive year). As it stands I don't like the fact there is no parent high. Obviously the GFS is bouncing back and forth on this. must be a close call on phasing with each run.

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That looks like a Hickory SN track thru 126 hrs, way to close to the coast for alot of folks... After that is crushes north central NC, and up into VA. The area between Greensboro and Danville would likely get a foot if this verified.

I agree. We can't worry about temps this far out anyways, we just need the storm to be there. I would just love to see a source(high pressure) of cold air sitting to our north with a fresh supply. Either way, for NC, there is a lot of potential with a track like the one the 18z is advertising.

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Verbatim it would be another north of 40 west of 85 special as Weather NC said (leaving me shafted at my bday for the second consecutive year). As it stands I don't like the fact there is no parent high. Obviously the GFS is bouncing back and forth on this. must be a close call on phasing with each run.

You and me both. I might get some consolation ZR but that's about it.

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That looks like a Hickory SN track thru 126 hrs, way to close to the coast for alot of folks... After that is crushes north central NC, and up into VA. The area between Greensboro and Danville would likely get a foot if this verified.

Yeah, I think I'll go ahead and cash out with the 18z GFS. weight_lift.gif

If only there was such a thing as cashing out, I'd have 100" of snow per winter. :D

I'd have a White Christmas for the second straight year if this verified with the snow still being on the ground, at least in the shaded areas, by Christmas.

I am worried about P-type issues, though. I get drilled here in GSO with this run, but it's not far away from disaster, either.

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Verbatim it would be another north of 40 west of 85 special as Weather NC said (leaving me shafted at my bday for the second consecutive year). As it stands I don't like the fact there is no parent high. Obviously the GFS is bouncing back and forth on this. must be a close call on phasing with each run.

Hopefully won't have to go far if this pans out... Granted, would rather stay here and get dumped on, but living in the Coastal Plain of NC, I have come to terms with the fact travel is often necessary to see a good SN-storm. :snowman:

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Hopefully won't have to go far if this pans out... Granted, would rather stay here and get dumped on, but living in the Coastal Plain of NC, I have come to terms with the fact travel is often necessary to see a good SN-storm. :snowman:

Yeah very true although I miss the days where we had more consistent weather with RDU when it came to snow (early 2000s - very east-west based). At least that is how winters went when I first came to NC. What I really need to do though is move back to snow country.

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