BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 For extreme NW NC looking at around .75 - 1. Everyone else looks to get between .25 - .50. I never have been too good at guesstimating qpf amounts for the duration so someone feel free to correct me. Appreciate it Burger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Per the 18z NAM we need this to speed up like 6 hours to have any hope of frozen precip, after 12z on Thursday the 2m temps skyrocket (rise above 32F), we need everything to fall before 12z, not from 12z to 18z. This is my uneducated opinion. Not sure where you are in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yeah this run brings precip across the mountains maybe a little faster than other models. Its still a tough call because either one could happen, the models may be missing the speed of the warm air advection, if it gets here earlier then a little period of light snow is possible, and probably more significant ZR or sleet amounts before we warm up enough to go over to rain. Our hope is that the northeast Vortex is stronger than the models are giving credit for, that would mean all the moisture coming at is focused more toward us and not eastern Kentucky...would be a much more wintry threat I'd think. If its higher moisture is right for central and eastern Ky, they may have a little problem with serious icing After looking at the 7oo map I have a hard time believing the qpf map. That looks like a good amount for western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Only got to around 38 today here. My thermometer beeps when it gets five degrees or closer to freezing, and it only stopped flashing for about 30 min-1 hour today. The airport got to 39, but even that was with a wind chill of 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 For extreme NW NC looking at around .75 - 1. Everyone else looks to get between .25 - .50. I never have been too good at guesstimating qpf amounts for the duration so someone feel free to correct me. You can key in airport codes here and get the numerical QPF from the model - wxcaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 At 69 ZR is still along the I-40 corridor roughly from HKY to RDU, all points south have switched over to just plain rain. Again though better run on temps. The temps are a function of the track of the weak surface wave, hence shift the track and warm front south a bit, and the temps are adjusted downward. With a track along the NC SC boarder, it would be conceivable that this would be a mostly frozen event for areas north of 40. A track through VA or along the NC VA boarder and the entire state is in the warm sector. This kind of reminds me of our clipper type system a week ago. While different in terms of origin, the modeling has some similarities. This wave looks a little more moisture rich, and is coming in from the west, vs northwest. But we saw the track shift north into VA, and even DC at this range, only to come back south within 60hrs. This run looks to take the impulse through the middle of the state, and heaviest QPF along the NC VA boarder, which would make sense. Now shift that track south 50-100 miles along the NC SC boarder, and most of NC would be in the mix for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 i just have a hard time believing it goes that far north with so much confluence in the northeast from the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The temps are a function of the track of the weak surface wave, hence shift the track and warm front south a bit, and the temps are adjusted downward. With a track along the NC SC boarder, it would be conceivable that this would be a mostly frozen event for areas north of 40. A track through VA or along the NC VA boarder and the entire state is in the warm sector. This kind of reminds me of our clipper type system a week ago. While different in terms of origin, the modeling has some similarities. This wave looks a little more moisture rich, and is coming in from the west, vs northwest. But we saw the track shift north into VA, and even DC at this range, only to come back south within 60hrs. This run looks to take the impulse through the middle of the state, and heaviest QPF along the NC VA boarder, which would make sense. Now shift that track south 50-100 miles along the NC SC boarder, and most of NC would be in the mix for the duration. Sure hope so, anything is plausible at this point. The drama of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 i just have a hard time believing it goes that far north with so much confluence in the northeast from the PV I have been thinking the same thing. The flow is out of the NW and the surface low moves into the NW flow and continues moving NE. How does that work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 i just have a hard time believing it goes that far north with so much confluence in the northeast from the PV Agreed. I also don't think the model is handling the depth of this arctic air, or the northern extent of the snowfield across TN, KY, OH, or IN. In that regard, a stronger baroclinic zone may shape up further south/east than currently progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Sure hope so, anything is plausible at this point. The drama of the NAM. Burger- don't get caught up in this-- you KNOW what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 the main thing to watch in future runs is the northeast vortex that the key between this being a minor event or possibly a warning criteria ice or snow event, especially if that qpf in ky were to move farther southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I have been thinking the same thing. The flow is out of the NW and the surface low moves into the NW flow and continues moving NE. How does that work? I also was wondering the same. Strong NW flow to overcome one would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 the main thing to watch in future runs is the northeast vortex that the key between this being a minor event or possibly a warning criteria ice or snow event, especially if that qpf in ky were to move farther southeast. FWIW looking at the ukmet for this event is has more qpf in western NC and keeps the midlevels colder longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Burger- don't get caught up in this-- you KNOW what will happen. I'm fine drinking the Kool-Aid right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 RDU is thinking a more southerly route (and this is before the18z NAM came out): .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM MONDAY... WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD AND DRY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CAA AND SURFACE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. IN ADDITION... MODELS FAVOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. THIS ALONG WITH THE PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NW RANGING TO NEAR 40 IN THE SE... SLIGHTLY UNDER MOS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H85 WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO WESTERN NC. THIS BECOMES PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WAA PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF CENTRAL NC BY DAYBREAK THUR. MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE TRACK IN THE PAST 2 RUNS... WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS NOW SHOWING ALL OF OUR REGION GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY... WITH THE WAVE TRACK FROM TN ENE ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THIS APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND THE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR STILL IN PLACE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY ON THURSDAY. HPC PREFERS A COMPROMISE WAVE TRACK ACROSS TN INTO NC WHICH SUGGESTS MORE IN THE WAY OF P-TYPE PROBLEMS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE THURS MORNING. FOR DETAILS... SEE THE THURSDAY DISCUSSION BELOW. WE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE PIEDMONT AFTER 400 AM... AND KEEP THE EAST DRY. LOWS 28-32. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Sure hope so, anything is plausible at this point. The drama of the NAM. This is RDU at 10am Thursday per the 18z NAM, at 2pm, it looks like ZR and RN by 5pm. Colder than the 12z GFS though, with the warm nose around 850 not nearly as pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 FWIW looking at the ukmet for this event is has more qpf in western NC and keeps the midlevels colder longer. thats interesting. hopefully we will see the gfs trend better for the 18z run in a few. oh btw can you see where the wave tracks on the uk just for comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 you know the real problem that could come out of this is the models wait until within 36 hours to nail a solution and people are caught off guard and Raleigh-Winston Salem-Charlotte becomes a big car pile up on Thursday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 WeatherNC, the NAM actually lays down an inch of snow for PGV before switching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The NAM beyond 48 hours is about as valuable as throwing paint on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The temps are a function of the track of the weak surface wave, hence shift the track and warm front south a bit, and the temps are adjusted downward. With a track along the NC SC boarder, it would be conceivable that this would be a mostly frozen event for areas north of 40. A track through VA or along the NC VA boarder and the entire state is in the warm sector. This kind of reminds me of our clipper type system a week ago. While different in terms of origin, the modeling has some similarities. This wave looks a little more moisture rich, and is coming in from the west, vs northwest. But we saw the track shift north into VA, and even DC at this range, only to come back south within 60hrs. This run looks to take the impulse through the middle of the state, and heaviest QPF along the NC VA boarder, which would make sense. Now shift that track south 50-100 miles along the NC SC boarder, and most of NC would be in the mix for the duration. Hope is kindled. Yesterday, the 18Z runs started a northerly trend, I think. Maybe today's is the start of the final trend... TO THE SOUTH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 and almost no qpf (at least in n ga) colder and faster would be good, but heck, we need the moisture too Patience...must let the pot simmer. First we get the low in the proper position, then we get the cold. Just have to let it bubble a while, lol. If we get a low with cold air that isn't just a distant memory, even if it is stale... over this cold ground...that is when we can see a turn over from just cold rain...of course it is apt to be a hell ice storm, if it is insitu It sure is nice out. That wind gives it a good bite. Does it take away the pain of this past endless summer? No...but it is a start T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 WeatherNC, the NAM actually lays down an inch of snow for PGV before switching... Snow map and thickness from this run. If the timing is correct, highest impacts for the state would be between 1am and 1 pm Thursday. Depending how much, or if the bulk of the QPF can move through in that timeframe, there would likely be a swath of mostly SN with some IP on the northern fringe of the precip shield, and ZR south of that. This would be advisory criteria for areas just to the north of the triangle. Hour 72 is in question here as the thickness supports ZR, which could be a real mess if we see a quarter of an inch fall, more so to our NW around RWI. Shift this track south another 50-100 miles, and a good chunk of NC would see more sig impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Snow map and thickness from this run. If the timing is correct, highest impacts for the state would be between 1am and 1 pm Thursday. Depending how much, or if the bulk of the QPF can move through in that timeframe, there would likely be a swath of mostly SN with some IP on the northern fringe of the precip shield, and ZR south of that. This would be advisory criteria for areas just to the north of the triangle. Hour 72 is in question here as the thickness supports ZR, which could be a real mess if we see a quarter of an inch fall, more so to our NW around RWI. Shift this track south another 50-100 miles, and a good chunk of NC would see more sig impacts. 5 inches for KTRI - I certainly can't buy what the NAM is selling. These events, unfortunately don't work out well with WAA moisture this side of the Apps. Almost always is a little bit of snow/ice followed by rain. I guess the positive thing is, at least it's something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Excerpt from the just issued AFD from FFC NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 30S OR BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY...AND MODELED THICKNESS VALUES IN SUPPORT OF AN ICY MIXTURE...COULD SEE SOME RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET MIXTURES EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Snow map and thickness from this run. If the timing is correct, highest impacts for the state would be between 1am and 1 pm Thursday. Depending how much, or if the bulk of the QPF can move through in that timeframe, there would likely be a swath of mostly SN with some IP on the northern fringe of the precip shield, and ZR south of that. This would be advisory criteria for areas just to the north of the triangle. Hour 72 is in question here as the thickness supports ZR, which could be a real mess if we see a quarter of an inch fall, more so to our NW around RWI. Shift this track south another 50-100 miles, and a good chunk of NC would see more sig impacts. Bleh! Yet another north of I-40 event. I am hoping the NE vortex ends up a little stronger and south and also for the cold come in a bit stronger then progged so all of us can be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 comparing the 18z nam and gfs at hr 42 it looks like the NE vortex is about 50 miles farther west on the gfs than the nam. gfs at hr 48 has a larger mass of precip on the surface extending from Tn/ky border all the way into the GOM where the NAM just has it in the TN valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 comparing the 18z nam and gfs at hr 42 it looks like the NE vortex is about 50 miles farther west on the gfs than the nam. It heads out a little further west at 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The NAM beyond 48 hours is about as valuable as throwing paint on the wall. HAPPY BIRTHDAY Brandon!!! Wish you the best Bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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