December 14th and onward discussion thread

[Cold Rain]

I can sum this thread up by saying December 14th and onward: nothing to look forward to.

And that's different from when? LOL!

[FoothillsNC]

the Euro says in 10 days we're exactly where we are now. The New England Vortex stays put, as does ridging in n. Canada. We will have cold waves, but only clipper type disturbances, other than the weekend system. Atleast we're not 70 in December like some years.

[Weather Czar]

jma has a southern storm, only snow for the mtns.

[eyewall]

the Euro says in 10 days we're exactly where we are now. The New England Vortex stays put, as does ridging in n. Canada. We will have cold waves, but only clipper type disturbances, other than the weekend system. Atleast we're not 70 in December like some years.

We will be 70 in January instead.

[MillzPirate]

just for fun has anyone seen the christmas eve bomb the GFS has for the southeast? 999 low off HAT

[packbacker]

We will be 70 in January instead.

I take 60's over this weather in a second. I equate winter weather of 60's and dry with that of a 6" snow storm. They both are equal to me, where we are now, with record cold, 2 days of rain and then more record cold is the absolute worst weather you can possibly have for NC. After all, most of us are within a 2-3 hour drive of the mountains to see some snow. I can't be the only one that thinks this way. Don't get me wrong, I think it's fun watching the models for threats and listening to everyone analyze them but if I had a choice right now of where we are with a small thread of snow this weekend or weather in the 60's I would take weather in the 60's.

[MillzPirate]

I take 60's over this weather in a second. I equate winter weather of 60's and dry with that of a 6" snow storm. They both are equal to me, where we are now, with record cold, 2 days of rain and then more record cold is the absolute worst weather you can possibly have for NC. After all, most of us are within a 2-3 hour drive of the mountains to see some snow. I can't be the only one that thinks this way. Don't get me wrong, I think it's fun watching the models for threats and listening to everyone analyze them but if I had a choice right now of where we are with a small thread of snow this weekend or weather in the 60's I would take weather in the 60's.

you might consider moving further south.... North Carolina in the winter shouldnt be in the 60's

[Weather Czar]

Ukie is more amped and inland. Giving most rain and rian to snow in the Mtns

[superjames1992]

I can sum this thread up by saying December 14th and onward: nothing to look forward to.

Step away from the cliff...

I take 60's over this weather in a second. I equate winter weather of 60's and dry with that of a 6" snow storm. They both are equal to me, where we are now, with record cold, 2 days of rain and then more record cold is the absolute worst weather you can possibly have for NC. After all, most of us are within a 2-3 hour drive of the mountains to see some snow. I can't be the only one that thinks this way. Don't get me wrong, I think it's fun watching the models for threats and listening to everyone analyze them but if I had a choice right now of where we are with a small thread of snow this weekend or weather in the 60's I would take weather in the 60's.

I respectfully disagree.

[Cold Rain]

the Euro says in 10 days we're exactly where we are now. The New England Vortex stays put, as does ridging in n. Canada. We will have cold waves, but only clipper type disturbances, other than the weekend system. Atleast we're not 70 in December like some years.

Well, good thing it's 10 days out, so it'll likely be wrong. Doesn't the Euro have a problem with STJ energy? Or is that the GFS? Doesn't it hang back energy too much in the SW? Or warm the upper levels too quickly? Or have a problem with low level cold air leaving too early? Or flip too much with east coast cyclogenesis? Or mishandle shortwave energy when there's a strong Pac jet? Or often over-forecast the strength of the PV? Or frequently break blocking down too early? Or routinely under-forecast CAD? Or often times over-phase the two streams?

There are plenty of excuses we can pick from that would allow us to conjure up something other than cold and dry for 10 days out? We just have to use our imagination...after all, without a good imagination or at least a look at 240 + hr model plots, most of us would never see a decent snowstorm.

[FLO]

I take 60's over this weather in a second. I equate winter weather of 60's and dry with that of a 6" snow storm. They both are equal to me, where we are now, with record cold, 2 days of rain and then more record cold is the absolute worst weather you can possibly have for NC. After all, most of us are within a 2-3 hour drive of the mountains to see some snow. I can't be the only one that thinks this way. Don't get me wrong, I think it's fun watching the models for threats and listening to everyone analyze them but if I had a choice right now of where we are with a small thread of snow this weekend or weather in the 60's I would take weather in the 60's.

I like 50's but this 30's crap sucks. Especially with the wind. Give me 32 and snow, not 32 and sun or 33 and rain. Otherwise, give me 50-60.

[packbacker]

you might consider moving further south.... North Carolina in the winter shouldnt be in the 60's

And we shouldn't be high in the 30's either, I was talking about extremes. Avg for RDU is mid-50s in December, we are going to average well below that.

[burgertime]

Here comes the 18z NAM let's see if it gives us any hope.

[Solak]

Not a good night for the meteor shower

DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OF 0 TO -5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

[tazaroo]

Here comes the 18z NAM let's see if it gives us any hope.

I'm hoping for a South Trend with the first storm. Not only to give us a chance for something frozen Thurs but I think the two storms are related. In my opinion if the first storm stays far north and thus warmer, we have less cold left over to work with for the second storm and with no High to the North we will likely be in the situation Robert was talking about earlier with having to rely on a stale and modified leftover cool air mass and we know how that works out east of the mountains.

Lets hope for either a South shift for storm 1 or at least a midwest/Great lakes High of some kind later on for storm 2.

[Buddy]

Hovering around 20F today with light snow showers persisting throughout the day (most of it may be blowing off of higher elevations, wins are avg 15mph. A few photos:

There's a road here somewhere:

Blowing snow:

Bet that water is COLD!

[Weather Czar]

Here comes the 18z NAM let's see if it gives us any hope.

Looks colder and faster... I think

[chapelhillwx]

Looks colder and faster... I think

I think so too... all relevant digits are crossed!

[burgertime]

18z is giving us some hope but there is just such light qpf...would be flurries it looks like verbatim at 63.

[NEGa]

and almost no qpf (at least in n ga) colder and faster would be good, but heck, we need the moisture too

[burgertime]

Def. a better run at 66 most of NC gets switched over to ZR...again though qpf is very light.

[chapelhillwx]

At 72 hours on the 12z, we have the 850 line going from Lynchburg to Danville to the coastal plain of NC. On this run at the same time, it's from Hickory to Lumberton(ish).... looking good temp-wise!

[BIG FROSTY]

Def. a better run at 66 most of NC gets switched over to ZR...again though qpf is very light.

Burger how much qpf for N.NC ?

[burgertime]

At 69 ZR is still along the I-40 corridor roughly from HKY to RDU, all points south have switched over to just plain rain. Again though better run on temps.

[FoothillsNC]

18z is giving us some hope but there is just such light qpf...would be flurries it looks like verbatim at 63.

Yeah this run brings precip across the mountains maybe a little faster than other models. Its still a tough call because either one could happen, the models may be missing the speed of the warm air advection, if it gets here earlier then a little period of light snow is possible, and probably more significant ZR or sleet amounts before we warm up enough to go over to rain. Our hope is that the northeast Vortex is stronger than the models are giving credit for, that would mean all the moisture coming at is focused more toward us and not eastern Kentucky...would be a much more wintry threat I'd think.

If its higher moisture is right for central and eastern Ky, they may have a little problem with serious icing

[NCBlizzard]

Yeah this run brings precip across the mountains maybe a little faster than other models. Its still a tough call because either one could happen, the models may be missing the speed of the warm air advection, if it gets here earlier then a little period of light snow is possible, and probably more significant ZR or sleet amounts before we warm up enough to go over to rain. Our hope is that the northeast Vortex is stronger than the models are giving credit for, that would mean all the moisture coming at is focused more toward us and not eastern Kentucky...would be a much more wintry threat I'd think.

If its higher moisture is right for central and eastern Ky, they may have a little problem with serious icing

Are any of these models biased towards under/over estimating the strength of these vortexes?

[Poimen]

to my untrained eye the 18Z NAM looks like a good case of front end snow for a good portion of NC. I would be happy with that.

[GaffneyPeach]

These bad runs are my fault. I take full responsibility for them...so shoot me or whatev.

My daughter and some friends are driving the 26/40 to Nashville on Saturday. Sorry folks. It can snow next week for Christmas.

[burgertime]

Burger how much qpf for N.NC ?

For extreme NW NC looking at around .75 - 1. Everyone else looks to get between .25 - .50. I never have been too good at guesstimating qpf amounts for the duration so someone feel free to correct me.

[packbacker]

Per the 18z NAM we need this to speed up like 6 hours to have any hope of frozen precip, after 12z on Thursday the 2m temps skyrocket (rise above 32F), we need everything to fall before 12z, not from 12z to 18z. This is my uneducated opinion.