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December 14th and onward discussion thread

BullCityWx

By BullCityWx,
in Southeastern States

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

The 12z ensemble mean looks better for this weekend. Just something to keep in mind. The ggem looks better also. Still a long way to go. Here is the mean and gem.

12z Canadian has a really good look to it with a stronger 500mb low in SE Canada. Also, the trough takes on a negative tilt as it tracks through the SE for better precip. The strong 500mb low is going to be a must for us to get just enough cold air in place since there is no indication of a strong gradient of NE winds coming out of a good sfc high pressure over the Great Lakes.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

It looks decent verbatim, but on the CMC there is no HP to the N or NW to transport cold air in here. We've got to have a supply of cold air being fed into the area. The 1019 HP on the GFS Ensemble mean is not going to cut the mustard either. I know it's an average, and at least the feature is there. But we really need such a feature to show up in reality and get a bit more pronounced as we head toward the event. Otherwise, :raining: .

I agree Cold Rain. Without the high to the north we would need the perferct track to help generate some cold. We all know how it usually turns out when we are depending on the perfect track. We'll have to see how future runs go.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

the 12z euro looks quite a bit faster/colder than the gfs. still thinking this will be a mostly frozen/freeing even for NC piedmont/foothills/mountains. the main reason is just the huge 500mb low over the northeast and big block over greenland. i think the models from last night/this morning were a hiccup. i think this will trend colder as we get closer. it may turn out to be more ip/zr that sn, but wintery weather regardless.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

the 12z euro looks quite a bit faster/colder than the gfs. still thinking this will be a mostly frozen/freeing even for NC piedmont/foothills/mountains. the main reason is just the huge 500mb low over the northeast and big block over greenland. i think the models from last night/this morning were a hiccup. i think this will trend colder as we get closer. it may turn out to be more ip/zr that sn, but wintery weather regardless.

I love your optimism! I hope you're right. I am having a feeling though that the models have been over-estimating the strength of that feature and the southward displacement of it in their later projections. A few days ago, they had it farther south and stronger than it actually is today. We'll see, though.

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

the 12z euro looks quite a bit faster/colder than the gfs. still thinking this will be a mostly frozen/freeing even for NC piedmont/foothills/mountains. the main reason is just the huge 500mb low over the northeast and big block over greenland. i think the models from last night/this morning were a hiccup. i think this will trend colder as we get closer. it may turn out to be more ip/zr that sn, but wintery weather regardless.

Although I'm not holding my breath for this even it is nice to see the Euro giving a little love. The Euro did pretty well with this last even from several days out so we shall see..... It's just so dang cold out it is hard to imagine this cold being knocked out so quickly. Temp currently is 30 so it doesn't look like we will break freezing today and tomorrow there is almost no shot at doing it. Pretty amazing cold for this time of year for sure.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
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I love your optimism! I hope you're right. I am having a feeling though that the models have been over-estimating the strength of that feature and the southward displacement of it in their later projections. A few days ago, they had it farther south and stronger than it actually is today. We'll see, though.

i'm just basing it on the pattern. it doesn't look like enough qpf to be a big storm, but i think we'll get something out of this one.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

HPC Discussion...gotta love how there is no mention of snow SW of Richmond from the GEM...

...FINAL...

THE 12Z GUIDANCE OFFERS A DISCONCERTING ARRAY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

FOR THE SPLIT FLOW OVER THE NATION DURING THIS MEDIUM RANGE

PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...THE LATEST GEFS MEAN HAS NOT TRENDED MUCH

FROM THE 06Z RUN...WHICH INFORMED MUCH OF THE UPDATE PACKAGE. THE

DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS GONE FLATTER WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WAVE

DAY 6...WITH THE GEFS MEAN SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE...ENOUGH TO

THREATEN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SNOW. THE GEM

GLOBAL HAS TRENDED CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE DAY 6

SYSTEM...BRINGING SNOW BACK TO INTERSTATE 95 FROM RICHMOND

NORTHWARD. THE UKMET REMAINS ON ITS OWN WITH SHOWING ENOUGH

AMPLITUDE TO BACK THE FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC STATES DAYS 5 AND 6

TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE LESSON WITH THIS MOST

RECENT COMPLEX AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MIDWEST AND EAST WAS TO GO

BETWEEN THE EXTREME SOLUTIONS...WHICH THE UPDATE BLEND

ACCOMPLISHED. FOR THIS REASON...NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE

FINAL ISSUANCE.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

lol...

Roughly about half a tenth to a tenth frozen qpf across NC this run.

Even though the overall pattern is decent for us, the lack of a strong surface high, or even moderate, in the Plains is going to hurt us. The same thing for the Wed. event. No models have it, and without that, I don't have that much hope, unless the models trend a lot colder aloft. In this case, you can see the 850's 0 line is draping ever so slowly as the shortwave is approaching, its almost a cold air chasing moisture look for n. Ga and the Carolinas. I'd say Tennessee and Ark may have the best shot because they're deeper in the cold air, Also this isn't arcitc air at all, its ho hum, stale, not fresh, and the dewpoints are quite high, not to mention the surface temps shown are pretty high , take SC and southern NC for example they are the last place to get cold with the system. Surface temps are very warm in the 40's and even 50's. So I never like having stale cold air and uncold dewpoints. It can work in the mountains though, but not down here. By the time its developing off the SC coast, then it pulls in colder air suddenly but by then we all know how that works out, except eastern NC will have a shot then. Who knows maybe the models are wrong about the temperature profile this far out, they could be, but if its right then most of NC, outside of the mountains especially, and possibly extreme eastern, its not looking very good. We really need a high pressure to show up. Also, the low pressure is strung out, and doesnt' develop til offshore. Thats not necessarily bad for as the north edge only needs to be in overrunning moisture, but it looks like a very flat wave until its too late. The lack of PNA out west hurts us also, but the biggest negative is lack of arctic high with fresh cold and good low dewpoints for Tn, NC, n GA and SC.

:raining:

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FLO

FLO

Posted
Posted

Awesome how as we move closer to possible precipitation events, the temps just get warmer and warmer. With one 12 hr period, we've killed 2 winter threats. GFS for around Christmas Eve looks pretty good, though.

Until this time next week lol

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Weather Czar

Weather Czar

Posted
Posted

Even though the overall pattern is decent for us, the lack of a strong surface high, or even moderate, in the Plains is going to hurt us. The same thing for the Wed. event. No models have it, and without that, I don't have that much hope, unless the models trend a lot colder aloft. In this case, you can see the 850's 0 line is draping ever so slowly as the shortwave is approaching, its almost a cold air chasing moisture look for n. Ga and the Carolinas. I'd say Tennessee and Ark may have the best shot because they're deeper in the cold air, Also this isn't arcitc air at all, its ho hum, stale, not fresh, and the dewpoints are quite high, not to mention the surface temps shown are pretty high , take SC and southern NC for example they are the last place to get cold with the system. Surface temps are very warm in the 40's and even 50's. So I never like having stale cold air and uncold dewpoints. It can work in the mountains though, but not down here. By the time its developing off the SC coast, then it pulls in colder air suddenly but by then we all know how that works out, except eastern NC will have a shot then. Who knows maybe the models are wrong about the temperature profile this far out, they could be, but if its right then most of NC, outside of the mountains especially, and possibly extreme eastern, its not looking very good. We really need a high pressure to show up. Also, the low pressure is strung out, and doesnt' develop til offshore. Thats not necessarily bad for as the north edge only needs to be in overrunning moisture, but it looks like a very flat wave until its too late. The lack of PNA out west hurts us also, but the biggest negative is lack of arctic high with fresh cold and good low dewpoints for Tn, NC, n GA and SC.

Maybe it will trend farther north and more amped like the Thurs threat. It went from nothing to almost a lakes cutter in just 2 days

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Even though the overall pattern is decent for us, the lack of a strong surface high, or even moderate, in the Plains is going to hurt us. The same thing for the Wed. event. No models have it, and without that, I don't have that much hope, unless the models trend a lot colder aloft. In this case, you can see the 850's 0 line is draping ever so slowly as the shortwave is approaching, its almost a cold air chasing moisture look for n. Ga and the Carolinas. I'd say Tennessee and Ark may have the best shot because they're deeper in the cold air, Also this isn't arcitc air at all, its ho hum, stale, not fresh, and the dewpoints are quite high, not to mention the surface temps shown are pretty high , take SC and southern NC for example they are the last place to get cold with the system. Surface temps are very warm in the 40's and even 50's. So I never like having stale cold air and uncold dewpoints. It can work in the mountains though, but not down here. By the time its developing off the SC coast, then it pulls in colder air suddenly but by then we all know how that works out, except eastern NC will have a shot then. Who knows maybe the models are wrong about the temperature profile this far out, they could be, but if its right then most of NC, outside of the mountains especially, and possibly extreme eastern, its not looking very good. We really need a high pressure to show up. Also, the low pressure is strung out, and doesnt' develop til offshore. Thats not necessarily bad for as the north edge only needs to be in overrunning moisture, but it looks like a very flat wave until its too late. The lack of PNA out west hurts us also, but the biggest negative is lack of arctic high with fresh cold and good low dewpoints for Tn, NC, n GA and SC.

It seems to me when temp's are borderline for NC (outside of the mtn's) it usually doesn't work out and from what your saying it doesn't even look borderline. Oh well, I am sure all of us will still model watch and hope for lightening in a bottle.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Posted

Maybe it will trend farther north and more amped like the Thurs threat. It went from nothing to almost a lakes cutter in just 2 days

yeah it still veyr early on this . But we almost always have to have nice cold, fresh air to work with and the lack of PNA out west is going to make it hard to push in the cold this far south. All models have just a murky, slowly meandering moderate airmass in the plains which takes a long time to ooze south from Friday and Saturday. If the Thursday storm turns out to be stronger and pulls down colder air in the East in its wake, then that would change everything. I guess it could happen. I woulnd't give up on it for sure until the models lose that southern stream system. As long as its down there and stays progged pretty far south, then atleast not all hope is lost. I like the track of that for us.

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rduwx

rduwx

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yeah it still veyr early on this . But we almost always have to have nice cold, fresh air to work with and the lack of PNA out west is going to make it hard to push in the cold this far south. All models have just a murky, slowly meandering moderate airmass in the plains which takes a long time to ooze south from Friday and Saturday. If the Thursday storm turns out to be stronger and pulls down colder air in the East in its wake, then that would change everything. I guess it could happen. I woulnd't give up on it for sure until the models lose that southern stream system. As long as its down there and stays progged pretty far south, then atleast not all hope is lost. I like the track of that for us.

I agree foothills, if the system doesn't phase then we are looking at more of an overrunning event and we need a hp to the north. Our only hope w/out a high to the north is a wrapped up system to pull down some colder air but then we have to worry about the track. If we are to close the lp system then we have mixing issue. This is a real "thread the needle" kind of situation and I have to admit they don't ever seem to work out for us.

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