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December 14th and onward discussion thread


BullCityWx

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I know, that's what I was looking at. But it appears (a long way off i know) that the the location of the high in the NE and the location of the SE low, looks like a good combination for a CAD against the NC mountains. Pure speculation now anyway! Or dreaming, not sure which! rolleyes.gif

If you are talking about the weekend event, I don't see any CAD .. I could be wrong

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Looks like things are still on the table for this Sunday. But it's hard to get too excited with it being 6 days out. Things don't look good today for the Thursday event, but of course that can change.

By the way, since we have a specific thread already for the Dec 16 possible event, could we change the title to this thread title for the weekend event? It seems we have two threads talking about the same thing now.

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Looks like things are still on the table for this Sunday. But it's hard to get too excited with it being 6 days out. Things don't look good today for the Thursday event, but of course that can change.

By the way, since we have a specific thread already for the Dec 16 possible event, could we change the title to this thread title for the weekend event? It seems we have two threads talking about the same thing now.

Agree. Seems like this thread is focusing on the 18-19th potential event.

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Question for mets out there, do you see the storm progged for Thursday having any implications on the possible weekend storm? Probably a stupid question but just curious if as the system exits if there is anything we want to be looking for.

You'd like to atleast have the New Eng. vortex remain in place and a surface high start to come into the northern Plains or Lakes. The ECMWF has a 1028 mb high in Iowa at 120 hour, and the vortex of confluence still in the norhteast, with a shortwave coming into west Texas. I would love to have that synoptic look verfiy, asour chances would be pretty good as far as living in the Southeast goes. But, the 850's aren't that cold, the 0 runs from southern VA to Ky to Arkansas and it looks like its a slow press southward. Its a very good setup if we can get the temps. A lot of folks could be left out though with 35 degrees and rain if the colder air aloft doesn't work down a little more. But someone on the north side of the precip shield would benefit from snow. Things to watch for at 96 hours on todays run will be the Vortex, its strength and location and the next southern stream coming into Texas/Southwest, and where the cold air lies, and if theres a siginficant high to our northwest.

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You'd like to atleast have the New Eng. vortex remain in place and a surface high start to come into the northern Plains or Lakes. The ECMWF has a 1028 mb high in Iowa at 120 hour, and the vortex of confluence still in the norhteast, with a shortwave coming into west Texas. I would love to have that synoptic look verfiy, asour chances would be pretty good as far as living in the Southeast goes. But, the 850's aren't that cold, the 0 runs from southern VA to Ky to Arkansas and it looks like its a slow press southward. Its a very good setup if we can get the temps. A lot of folks could be left out though with 35 degrees and rain if the colder air aloft doesn't work down a little more. But someone on the north side of the precip shield would benefit from snow. Things to watch for at 96 hours on todays run will be the Vortex, its strength and location and the next southern stream coming into Texas/Southwest, and where the cold air lies, and if theres a siginficant high to our northwest.

Thanks! Always watching the PV since last year I learned exactly what it can do!

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Thanks! Always watching the PV since last year I learned exactly what it can do!

yep. Normally I like that in the Northeast, but so far this year the Pacific won't allow the perfect climo setup, the high pressure remains in Canada. The Euro looked good at 5H on the weekend storm, but we need a slightly colder push down here.

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in regards to the upcoming wednesday event, i see snow in the forecast for parts of north georgia. is this accurate because to me it seems as though if we get any frozen precip on wednesday it would be primarily in the form of freezing rain with maybe a little sleet. my question is more or less do the upper levels support any snow on wednesday in north georgia? any feedback would be greatly appreciated...

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Well, since eyewall has issued a FAIL WATCH for Wednesday/Thursday and the weekend system is not looking so good, I thought I would say NEXT!!!! Here are the maps for Christmas Eve off of the 12z GFS. If nothing else, I'll start hyping this one up to all of my friends and family. They already know how much of a weather weenie I am!

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY

gfs_pcp_264s.gif

Here comes Santa Claus!

gfs_pcp_276s.gif

Somebody wake Brick up and help him back on to his chair!

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My thought indeed. It appears things are setting up our way... if we can get the cold air support, who knows, we'll just have to wait and see.

I like the way ya'll think. If we were slated for a 6" snow right now for wed/thur I guarantee it would fail for most. I'd rather be flipping back and forth between good or borderline and not good right now.

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Well, since eyewall has issued a FAIL WATCH for Wednesday/Thursday and the weekend system is not looking so good, I thought I would say NEXT!!!! Here are the maps for Christmas Eve off of the 12z GFS. If nothing else, I'll start hyping this one up to all of my friends and family. They already know how much of a weather weenie I am!

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY

gfs_pcp_264s.gif

Here comes Santa Claus!

gfs_pcp_276s.gif

Somebody wake Brick up and help him back on to his chair!

Awesome! On Christmas Eve, we'll be congratulating the folks in MO and IL.

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I like the way ya'll think. If we were slated for a 6" snow right now for wed/thur I guarantee it would fail for most. I'd rather be flipping back and forth between good or borderline and not good right now.

If I had my choice, though, I'd rather toe the line of precip. vs. suppression rather than warm vs. cold. Cold never seems to win that battle.

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Well, since eyewall has issued a FAIL WATCH for Wednesday/Thursday and the weekend system is not looking so good, I thought I would say NEXT!!!! Here are the maps for Christmas Eve off of the 12z GFS. If nothing else, I'll start hyping this one up to all of my friends and family. They already know how much of a weather weenie I am!

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY

gfs_pcp_264s.gif

Here comes Santa Claus!

gfs_pcp_276s.gif

Somebody wake Brick up and help him back on to his chair!

I would trade all the snow for the rest of winter to see a white Christmas.

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well atleast the setup on the Euro and GFS is about as nice as you can hope for in the Southeast. A moderate southwest trough trudging due east, cold high pressure (but not too strong) sitting in Iowa or the Midwest, and a confluent zone in the Northeast, with blocking in central Canada to Greenland. If you look back at the best southern snow events on a widespread basis, you'd see all those things were present. However, one key ingredient is not present...that being a strong PNA ridge. We could still pull it off without it since the giant blocking has everything supressed south of normal, but to get cold enough air into the Southeast, I'd like to see atleast a little ridging out west. We'll see if the Euro nudges just a little more cold down our way in time.

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The 12z ensemble mean looks better for this weekend. Just something to keep in mind. The ggem looks better also. Still a long way to go. Here is the mean and gem.

It looks decent verbatim, but on the CMC there is no HP to the N or NW to transport cold air in here. We've got to have a supply of cold air being fed into the area. The 1019 HP on the GFS Ensemble mean is not going to cut the mustard either. I know it's an average, and at least the feature is there. But we really need such a feature to show up in reality and get a bit more pronounced as we head toward the event. Otherwise, :raining: .

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