December 14th and onward discussion thread

[BullCityWx]

Use this thread to discuss the cold and potential minor event later in the week.

[FLO]

Use this thread to discuss the cold and potential minor event later in the week.

Until next Tues, then we can give up on this one and start a new one. So goes the cycle.

[burgertime]

Use this thread to discuss the cold and potential minor event later in the week.

The way GFS is pegging it, it might not be that minor. Gonna have to see if the cold squashes all hope. I'm actually getting kind of excited about this one. Just hope something can happen so we get SN instead of ZR.

[Rankin5150]

I agree. Lets roll with this thread. There are too many other threads. Hard to keep up. LOL.

[buckeyefan1]

33 and rain

101215/1500Z 147 19005KT 35.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

101215/1800Z 150 23007KT 42.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0

101215/2100Z 153 25004KT 35.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.020|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

101216/0000Z 156 VRB02KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.075|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

101216/0300Z 159 18007KT 33.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.173|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

101216/0600Z 162 21006KT 34.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.094|| 0.36 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

101216/0900Z 165 25004KT 35.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.043|| 0.41 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

101216/1200Z 168 29003KT 36.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.41 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

101216/1500Z 171 VRB02KT 40.1F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

101216/1800Z 174 VRB01KT 45.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

101216/2100Z 177 VRB02KT 48.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

101217/0000Z 180 17006KT 50.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100

======================================================================================================================

[burrel2]

I'm not sure why the other Dec 12/13th threat got so much attention. Outside of NW upslope favored areas, nobody was ever going to see any snow from that storm.

[burgertime]

I'm not sure why the other Dec 12/13th threat got so much attention. Outside of NW upslope favored areas, nobody was ever going to see any snow from that storm.

Cause of the surprise the last system gave a lot folks I think lots of people (won't lie if I said I am totally not buying it) are hoping for a surprise with this weekend. Like I said yesterday though that storm for next Thursday the GFS has been latching on to looks more legit to me.

[strongwxnc]

Hope...

Screw hope. Well at least for me this year.

Give me a solid storm less then 3 days out..I will be in.

But I will also be at every model run...

I'm not sure why the other Dec 12/13th threat got so much attention. Outside of NW upslope favored areas, nobody was ever going to see any snow from that storm.

[sctvman]

How cold do you think it is going to get in the Charleston area? Our TV stations are calling for mid 40s on Monday and Tuesday.

[Lookout]

I'm not sure why the other Dec 12/13th threat got so much attention. Outside of NW upslope favored areas, nobody was ever going to see any snow from that storm.

Totally agree. Glen "motherf'n" burns on one of the local stations in atlanta said rain changing to snow sunday..as if it was going to be significant. Sometimes these people really make me scratch my head. In some cases, They overplay situations where it's obvious it won't be big and then downplay situations where there is a chance for something more significant.

The next system has a better chance of something wintery, though it remains to be seen if the models are even close to handling it right. They have been shifting around a lot with this system and there is no reason to believe they will be consistent with this next one. So take everything with a grain of salt.

But fwiw, The morning of the arrival of moisture, temps are in the 20s, dps in the single digits...through the boundary layer. (just a note, the 12z Gfs is progging dewpoints as low as -10 here tuesday,...which is probably overdone. I've never seen dps that low.) Regardless, It's going to be hard to warm/moisten that up quick. It likely will eventually here in north Ga but it should provide for a period of a mix before going over to a very very cold rain...probably the dreaded 32.5 degree rain.

18z run has temps right at 31 or 32 with wetbulbs around 29/30 with the arrival of precip. Looks like a sleet sounding at first with a rather weak elevated warm layer and below freezing boundary layer, before transitioning to freezing rain based on the atlanta sounding. Then over to literally a 32.5 degree rain from gainesville to athens and westward, but still below freezing northeast of there into sc. It's a rather strange setup compared to what we are used to. And I don't know if I'd classify this as some sort of pseudo damming or not as winds are southeasterly. Weak enough though it sort of dams it from the southeast (only 2 or 3 knots from 950mb to the surface). Pretty unusual.

But I'm sure this will change radically multiple times so it doesn't mean much of anything right now.

[DixieBlizzard]

Glen "motherf'n" burns

LMAO!! You need to trademark that nickname. The guy is a weasel.

[beanskip]

18z gfs gets a little cute on 12/16 and 12/17. TRIES real hard to pop a weak little high over WV and then send what I guess is a little overrunning precip in the Carolinas Must be a wedge because 2m temps are colder than 850s. Doesn't look like much now, but a little stronger high and a little more precip and it would be notable. Worth tracking, at least.

[NEGa]

Totally agree. Glen "motherf'n" burns on one of the local stations in atlanta said rain changing to snow sunday..as if it was going to be significant. Sometimes these people really make me scratch my head. In some cases, They overplay situations where it's obvious it won't be big and then downplay situations where there is a chance for something more significant.

The next system has a better chance of something wintery, though it remains to be seen if the models are even close to handling it right. They have been shifting around a lot with this system and there is no reason to believe they will be consistent with this next one. So take everything with a grain of salt.

But fwiw, The morning of the arrival of moisture, temps are in the 20s, dps in the single digits...through the boundary layer. (just a note, the 12z Gfs is progging dewpoints as low as -10 here tuesday,...which is probably overdone. I've never seen dps that low.) Regardless, It's going to be hard to warm/moisten that up quick. It likely will eventually here in north Ga but it should provide for a period of a mix before going over to a very very cold rain...probably the dreaded 32.5 degree rain.

18z run has temps right at 31 or 32 with wetbulbs around 29/30 with the arrival of precip. Looks like a sleet sounding at first with a rather weak elevated warm layer and below freezing boundary layer, before transitioning to freezing rain based on the atlanta sounding. Then over to literally a 32.5 degree rain from gainesville to athens and westward, but still below freezing northeast of there into sc. It's a rather strange setup compared to what we are used to. And I don't know if I'd classify this as some sort of pseudo damming or not as winds are southeasterly. Weak enough though it sort of dams it from the southeast (only 2 or 3 knots from 950mb to the surface). Pretty unusual.

But I'm sure this will change radically multiple times so it doesn't mean much of anything right now.

Well after the last couple of years of disasters with the strange cads that should work but didn't, lol, i will be very wary of any ice/cad unless it looks Ike the ones pre2005

[Batman]

LMAO!! You need to trademark that nickname. The guy is a weasel.

I haven't watched him in years. 1.) beacause I hate watching the Atlanta news and 2.) because he is absolutely terrible!! However, if they could get Lookout's trademark for him to show up at the bottom of the screen, I would watch is forecast at least once a week just to see it. Very Funny!

[Lookout]

LMAO!! You need to trademark that nickname. The guy is a weasel.

I already have lol..every time I mention him, that's what I say. Cracks my girlfriend up every time when I go on a rant about one of the countless stupid and wrong things he has said. Ugh..he drives me crazy lol

Well after the last couple of years of disasters with the strange cads that should work but didn't, lol, i will be very wary of any ice/cad unless it looks Ike the ones pre2005

Yeah like I said, this is not really damming per se as we are familiar with. In fact, it's more like just a regular stalled arctic boundary because there is subfreezing air to the west of the mountains and similar atmospheric conditions well to the east/southeast over the carolinas. So I probably should not use that term at all after looking at it more closely.

I haven't watched him in years. 1.) beacause I hate watching the Atlanta news and 2.) because he is absolutely terrible!! However, if they could get Lookout's trademark for him to show up at the bottom of the screen, I would watch is forecast at least once a week just to see it. Very Funny!

lol..Yeah he is like fingers on a chalkboard to me and many days I can't bring myself to watch his nonsense. It's unbelievable to me someone can be that bad, get paid for it and be put on the air.

[SBUWX23]

Been busy today but looks like most forecasts dont show highs in the 20s in NC next week but a quick glance of the models still shows its possible

[sctvman]

I watch Glenn Burns sometimes when I'm in Atlanta and he's annoying. No wonder he did the lottery drawing for years. 42.8 now on James Island.

[Lookout]

Been busy today but looks like most forecasts dont show highs in the 20s in NC next week but a quick glance of the models still shows its possible

yep, Looks pretty likely to me. Soundings from the gfs show temps of only 24 to 26 from north ga through nc at 18z monday. And again for north carolina on tuesday with 850mb temps around -15c both days. Hard to argue it will not be in the 20s.

[UNCCmetgrad]

18z gfs gets a little cute on 12/16 and 12/17. TRIES real hard to pop a weak little high over WV and then send what I guess is a little overrunning precip in the Carolinas Must be a wedge because 2m temps are colder than 850s. Doesn't look like much now, but a little stronger high and a little more precip and it would be notable. Worth tracking, at least.

It looks to be an in situ cold air damming event with no real parent high in place and no CAA.

[Stovepipe]

I'm not sure why the other Dec 12/13th threat got so much attention. Outside of NW upslope favored areas, nobody was ever going to see any snow from that storm.

The GFS buffkit data has been showing between 1 and 4 inches in the valley of east TN for that threat all week. The current NWS statement for the area is saying "several inches are possible". So while the system might indeed turn out to be "fail train" material, those of us in TN have been and will continue to pay close attention to it.

[strongwxnc]

Rooting for our TN folks!!!!

The GFS buffkit data has been showing between 1 and 4 inches in the valley of east TN for that threat all week. The current NWS statement for the area is saying "several inches are possible". So while the system might indeed turn out to be "fail train" material, those of us in TN have been and will continue to pay close attention to it.

[NEGa]

Rooting for our TN folks!!!!

Ditto! We haven't had a really good tn group until recently. Its also going to be nice this winter to have a whole new set of se obs

[Marion_NC_WX]

The 18z MeteoStar site numerical guidance for the 18z GFS really bottoms out the temp Tuesday Morning. Also we bottom out at -18 (850's) early Monday.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMRN

[BullCityWx]

KCLT's average temp for the month after today will be 33.65.

[weatherfide]

Looks like ice for NE Ga Wednesday, 12/15 on 0z GFS.

[SBUWX23]

I know we have a block but I do not like that massive trough over the E Pac and western US

[Lookout]

It looks to be an in situ cold air damming event with no real parent high in place and no CAA.

At first i thought so too but to me this doesn't fit the bill imo. At no point do the winds turn east. In fact, soundings show just the opposite. Wed morning winds are northwest and they turn SSW by the evening. This is a really unique situation the gfs is showing here. It is showing what amounts to a fairly significant amount of freezing rain without so much as a hit of an east wind at any point.

Anyone recall significant freezing rain in georgia with west or SSW winds? Bizarre.

Wed am, we start out really cold again. Teens and dps near 0.

Date: 5.5 day AVN valid 12Z WED 15 DEC 10
Station: KAHN
Latitude:   33.95
Longitude: -83.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   150                                                                 
SFC  990   228  -7.1 -17.1  45 10.0  -9.4 320   2 266.8 267.0 264.4 269.6  1.01
 2  950   553  -3.6 -23.8  19 20.2  -7.8 303   6 273.6 273.7 268.2 275.3  0.59
 3  900   983   0.3 -22.9  15 23.3  -5.3 288  14 281.9 282.0 273.4 283.9  0.67
 4  850  1441  -0.5 -11.8  42 11.3  -4.2 290  21 285.7 286.0 277.2 291.0  1.82
 5  800  1924  -1.8  -7.2  67  5.4  -3.8 290  30 289.2 289.7 280.1 297.3  2.78
 6  750  2437  -3.1  -7.2  73  4.1  -4.7 287  36 293.2 293.7 282.1 302.0  2.96
 7  700  2981  -4.9  -8.6  75  3.7  -6.3 285  41 297.1 297.6 283.7 305.7  2.85

Here is the athens sounding for 0z thur. Note the entire boundary layer in both instances have a westerly component. So this is not insitu damming imo.

Date: 6 day AVN valid 0Z THU 16 DEC 10
Station: KAHN
Latitude:   33.95
Longitude: -83.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   146                                                                 
SFC  990   228  -1.0  -2.1  92  1.2  -1.4 200   4 273.0 273.5 272.3 282.0  3.30
 2  950   554  -1.8  -2.9  92  1.1  -2.3 228   9 275.3 275.9 273.6 284.2  3.24
 3  900   986   1.8   1.3  96  0.5   1.5 247  23 283.4 284.2 279.7 296.4  4.66
 4  850  1451   4.3   4.1  99  0.2   4.2 254  40 290.6 291.7 284.5 307.9  6.03
 5  800  1944   3.4   3.3  99  0.2   3.3 260  48 294.8 295.9 286.2 312.4  6.05
 6  750  2466   1.0   0.9  99  0.2   1.0 267  50 297.7 298.7 286.6 313.8  5.44
 7  700  3019  -1.7  -1.9  98  0.2  -1.8 275  50 300.6 301.5 287.1 315.0  4.76

This is simply moisture over running a retreating arctic boundary/airmass. But it's unusual to have in georgia since by far most IP/FR systems have some form of insitu, hybrid, or full blown cad. It's something you would be more likely to see in the plains. By 06z to 12z, thur it will be in the 40s. (nearly 50 in atlanta by 12z!)

Accumulations won't be the story with this system if it played out like the gfs, it will be the fact that north Georgia/upstate sc roads will be a skating rink for a little while since the ground will be a block of ice this time.

[Calderon]

The mets around here, including myself, have basically thrown their hands up and said "we won't know until it starts basically". This event is going to be a Nowcast thing for the Nashville area for sure.

[FoothillsNC]

At first i thought so too but to me this doesn't fit the bill imo. At no point do the winds turn east. In fact, soundings show just the opposite. Wed morning winds are northwest and they turn SSW by the evening. This is a really unique situation the gfs is showing here. It is showing what amounts to a fairly significant amount of freezing rain without so much as a hit of an east wind at any point.

Anyone recall significant freezing rain in georgia with west or SSW winds? Bizarre.

Wed am, we start out really cold again. Teens and dps near 0.

Date: 5.5 day AVN valid 12Z WED 15 DEC 10
Station: KAHN
Latitude:   33.95
Longitude: -83.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
	mb 	m 	C 	C    %   C 	C  deg knt   K 	K 	K 	K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   150                                                         		
SFC  990   228  -7.1 -17.1  45 10.0  -9.4 320   2 266.8 267.0 264.4 269.6  1.01
 2  950   553  -3.6 -23.8  19 20.2  -7.8 303   6 273.6 273.7 268.2 275.3  0.59
 3  900   983   0.3 -22.9  15 23.3  -5.3 288  14 281.9 282.0 273.4 283.9  0.67
 4  850  1441  -0.5 -11.8  42 11.3  -4.2 290  21 285.7 286.0 277.2 291.0  1.82
 5  800  1924  -1.8  -7.2  67  5.4  -3.8 290  30 289.2 289.7 280.1 297.3  2.78
 6  750  2437  -3.1  -7.2  73  4.1  -4.7 287  36 293.2 293.7 282.1 302.0  2.96
 7  700  2981  -4.9  -8.6  75  3.7  -6.3 285  41 297.1 297.6 283.7 305.7  2.85

Here is the athens sounding for 0z thur. Note the entire boundary layer in both instances have a westerly component. So this is not insitu damming imo.

Date: 6 day AVN valid 0Z THU 16 DEC 10
Station: KAHN
Latitude:   33.95
Longitude: -83.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
	mb 	m 	C 	C    %   C 	C  deg knt   K 	K 	K 	K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   146                                                         		
SFC  990   228  -1.0  -2.1  92  1.2  -1.4 200   4 273.0 273.5 272.3 282.0  3.30
 2  950   554  -1.8  -2.9  92  1.1  -2.3 228   9 275.3 275.9 273.6 284.2  3.24
 3  900   986   1.8   1.3  96  0.5   1.5 247  23 283.4 284.2 279.7 296.4  4.66
 4  850  1451   4.3   4.1  99  0.2   4.2 254  40 290.6 291.7 284.5 307.9  6.03
 5  800  1944   3.4   3.3  99  0.2   3.3 260  48 294.8 295.9 286.2 312.4  6.05
 6  750  2466   1.0   0.9  99  0.2   1.0 267  50 297.7 298.7 286.6 313.8  5.44
 7  700  3019  -1.7  -1.9  98  0.2  -1.8 275  50 300.6 301.5 287.1 315.0  4.76

This is simply moisture over running a retreating arctic boundary/airmass. But it's unusual to have in georgia since by far most IP/FR systems have some form of insitu, hybrid, or full blown cad. It's something you would be more likely to see in the plains. By 06z to 12z, thur it will be in the 40s. (nearly 50 in atlanta by 12z!)

Accumulations won't be the story with this system if it played out like the gfs, it will be the fact that north Georgia/upstate sc roads will be a skating rink for a little while since the ground will be a block of ice this time.

I think Wed. night there is a weak high in WVA area and this model loses it, therefore its winds go southwesterly. Also the precip amounts aren't too high yet on the model, but if I bet if they were just a little more, you'd see it respond with wind barbs more from classic northeast position there.

Look what it does to winds in NC by day 7. Pops a small weak high yet again, and they go Northeast winds for NC by day 7. I think the model has a hard time with high placement. It looks weak right now, but pressures could build more as time wears on, with the vortex still strongly in place in the Northeast. Youre right, ssw winds don't give us freezing rain. I think winds are not shown properly.

00z Thur:

00z Fri:

[Lookout]

As you can see with the surface to 950mb streamlines, the flow in the boundary layer is actually moving away from the mountains initially and then translates to your typical southwest flow.

We'll see I guess. It's fun to look at it but It's quite a ways off still though and given the uniqueness of it, I'd be cautious.