QVectorman Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I could of swore I have seen NWS AFDs (mainly out west) and members here from time to time (it's been a while) post analog weather patterns that as I recall they were attributed to being generated by computer and I was interested in where that data came from. But that idea got me wondering if there is a site that generates analog years since I'm interested in verifying statistically which years would have been the most appropriate analogs for last year (or other years for that matter) based on the 500 mb anamoly pattern for DJF. (Without having to manually go through and generate each map for DJF from 1950-2009.) Just to see where I might have went wrong picking analog years and what I could do to improve my selecting of analog years. Does anyone have a site they know of that can compute that? During my googling I did find this site for generating analog weather patterns. The site seems to be full of excellent goodies for winter weather events if anyone is interested. http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php Also any other sites recommended for generating analog weather patterns? Does the NWS have this ability in house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 This is a great tool to work with, it gives you a 4-panal view of any of the analog storms you click on. It even gives you the teleconnection values for the event. And you can toggle between the current model 4-panal and the analog storm. The table of top analog events allows you to click on the column header and sort the events based on their best correlation score for 850 temps or PMSL or 500 mb hgts, etc, etc instead only by overall correlation score. Plus you can click on individual dates and view all pressure levels/indices etc for that day. You can also view the averaged snowfall for all correlated events or snowfall for individual events or SPC severe wx reports, tornadoes, hail, wind. It's really a great tool and has a lot of features!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Promet Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I will use this winter have not in the past so will be interesting to see if it helps. Thanks. Has any one used it operationally in the past, what did you think of the tool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 This is a great tool to work with, it gives you a 4-panal view of any of the analog storms you click on. It even gives you the teleconnection values for the event. And you can toggle between the current model 4-panal and the analog storm. SLU CIPS also has one for the "warm season". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxCZAR Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Thank you for sharing this, it will be a very useful forecasting tool this winter. I am interested to see how the weather pattern for an event this winter will compare to a past event's weather pattern and then see how similar the outcomes are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Thank you for sharing this, it will be a very useful forecasting tool this winter. I am interested to see how the weather pattern for an event this winter will compare to a past event's weather pattern and then see how similar the outcomes are. When I was working out west back in the winter of 2008-2009 I recall the NWS in Las Vegas used analog weather patterns to help forecast the day they saw snow on the Vegas strip. From the dates they came up with they noted the push of cold air was deeper and forecasted to move farther south than in the previous events. With snowfall records they pulled up associated with the analog storms they were able to forecast a measurable snow event even though the models were not forecasting any winter weather. I saw it used a few other times that year too; that worked out very well. Working out west and on the East coast I think this tool holds the most value for forecasting rare winter events across the west, in SE Texas and deep south where snowfall is rare and it takes pattern recognition to really nail a forecast. Thanks for the warm season link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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