Jon Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 A great read as always Robert. I'm actually excited for this winter and can't wait for the late night runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Thanks Robert. Ever since that anomolous two days in mid summer where the wind came from the NE, we were in clouds, and it was in the 70's, I've been on the cad band waggon. All it takes for me to come to conclusions, no matter how erroneous, is something way out of character So, that summer episode, and more recent periods of wedging have me thinking you'll be right for sure. The other non scientific things are, no wasps around all summer, no ticks since early in the summer. The mosquitoes have gone. And I have mindlessly been on a wood splitting mission, like someone possessed, since last March. I have a stack 30 feet long, 12 feet wide, and 6 feet high...and two other, smaller ones. So....we will either have way above normal temps, or way below normal, lol. Normal temps would really surprise me Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Great read Robert! Thanks for sharing your work with us folks... LookIng forward to the first major Dr. No run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Thanks, Robert! Hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Hopefully it pans out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Promet Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 A persistence forecast. Many likie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Thanks for all your hard work Robert! Very well done and very understanable to an old layman like myself. I can't say I'm excited about working outside in the much colder than normal area but I really like that snowier than normal zone! Here's hoping you're spot-on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Good work as always Robert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Also asking because I'm considering flying down to Birmingham/Jackson/Atlanta/etc. to give SE chasing a shot, if a big outbreak becomes evident. I recommend chasing the Great Plains. If you have a budget and the time for a trip, odds favor the Plains attempt. One can see farther with fewer trees and flatter land. The road network is better. Predictability is better because the Plains is more researched. Crud days are less frequent. The bust potential is lower for many reasons. Plains tornadoes are also less likely to injure/kill in a less populated area. I've seen killers and the human cost takes away any thrill of the chase. Even in a "bad" year for the Plains, when "everything is East, Southeast, Ohio Valley," the Plains still offers the best chance of success for the reasons above. Now if you are coming down to the Southeast for other reasons too, then welcome and stay a while. There are ways around the trees and terrain. Just go with somebody who knows the clear, flat and/or high spots. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Great outlook, Robert! Hope it comes to fruition! Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I recommend chasing the Great Plains. If you have a budget and the time for a trip, odds favor the Plains attempt. One can see farther with fewer trees and flatter land. The road network is better. Predictability is better because the Plains is more researched. Crud days are less frequent. The bust potential is lower for many reasons. Plains tornadoes are also less likely to injure/kill in a less populated area. I've seen killers and the human cost takes away any thrill of the chase. Even in a "bad" year for the Plains, when "everything is East, Southeast, Ohio Valley," the Plains still offers the best chance of success for the reasons above. Now if you are coming down to the Southeast for other reasons too, then welcome and stay a while. There are ways around the trees and terrain. Just go with somebody who knows the clear, flat and/or high spots. Cheers! Agreed with the Plains stuff wholeheartedly, but I would like to give a run at SE chasing one of these times, since it seems a rather large percentage of the blockbuster events have occurred down here over the past several years (and actually in general). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 well thanks for all the compliments guys and gals. I know every body has a philosophy about doing an outlook, and nobody ever can claim to be mostly correct all the time. But I firmly believe we are getting better at it, as the years go by, thanks to collective knowledge and just building on the science. Isn't that what science is all about? Some folks are really negative and say why even bother to try, but if you go by that philosophy, then how about hundreds of years ago, when the telescope was invented, then developed and fine tuned? Now we see a universe of 200 BILLION galaxies, each containing over 100 billion stars, and each star seperated by light years, and each galaxy spanning 100 thousand light years from one end to the other , like our own Milky Way, and each galaxy separated by many, many, many millions of light years apart! We went from a Flat earth, and earth-centered universe to this in just one millennium. Then quantum physics came along, and now we're in the infancy of looking the other direction, into almost infinity, as far as man's tools will let him look at the unbelievably small? The point is, you gotta start somewhere. Just like 30 years ago a weather model couldn't predict if it would rain just 2 or 3 days out. Now we have models than pinpoint pretty well, even out to 7 days out, and we're constantly getting better. All thanks to collective scientific knowledge. I know myself I've learned tons just reading on here the last few years from Chuck and Wes, and other pro mets, on this very board. Also, from great non mets, who actually can probably deliver a more accurate forecast than some well paid pro, Tv, Noaa, and media mets, again right here on this very forum. Without a doubt, thats true. If any forecastere did have all the pieces of the long term forecast puzzle in his arsenal, they would nearly rule the world. Yet we have excellent , non paid, no pro forecasters on here who actually in the past have did very well, using all the tools that others use, beating energy sector and noaa forecasts. So, I say continue to "build it"...even though you could be dead wrong in any given year. Still no excuse for not trying and not learning a little more each time you try. That being said though, I'm not a multi-season long ranger really, I think I do better in the 7 to 30 day pattern, and prefer pattern recognition, and incorporate a huge list of things in my forecast, not just models and certainly not just a broad based climo list. I aim for specificity and accuracy, but you can only do so much in a long range outlook. Obviously not everybody bounded by the white on my map would get snow, there would be gaps of course, but thats the general outline of where the cold/warm and snow/below would be as I see it now. Could be dead wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaiya Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 well thanks for all the compliments guys and gals. I know every body has a philosophy about doing an outlook, and nobody ever can claim to be mostly correct all the time. But I firmly believe we are getting better at it, as the years go by, thanks to collective knowledge and just building on the science. Isn't that what science is all about? Some folks are really negative and say why even bother to try, but if you go by that philosophy, then how about hundreds of years ago, when the telescope was invented, then developed and fine tuned? Now we see a universe of 200 BILLION galaxies, each containing over 100 billion stars, and each star seperated by light years, and each galaxy spanning 100 thousand light years from one end to the other , like our own Milky Way, and each galaxy separated by many, many, many millions of light years apart! We went from a Flat earth, and earth-centered universe to this in just one millennium. Then quantum physics came along, and now we're in the infancy of looking the other direction, into almost infinity, as far as man's tools will let him look at the unbelievably small? The point is, you gotta start somewhere. Just like 30 years ago a weather model couldn't predict if it would rain just 2 or 3 days out. Now we have models than pinpoint pretty well, even out to 7 days out, and we're constantly getting better. All thanks to collective scientific knowledge. I know myself I've learned tons just reading on here the last few years from Chuck and Wes, and other pro mets, on this very board. Also, from great non mets, who actually can probably deliver a more accurate forecast than some well paid pro, Tv, Noaa, and media mets, again right here on this very forum. Without a doubt, thats true. If any forecastere did have all the pieces of the long term forecast puzzle in his arsenal, they would nearly rule the world. Yet we have excellent , non paid, no pro forecasters on here who actually in the past have did very well, using all the tools that others use, beating energy sector and noaa forecasts. So, I say continue to "build it"...even though you could be dead wrong in any given year. Still no excuse for not trying and not learning a little more each time you try. That being said though, I'm not a multi-season long ranger really, I think I do better in the 7 to 30 day pattern, and prefer pattern recognition, and incorporate a huge list of things in my forecast, not just models and certainly not just a broad based climo list. I aim for specificity and accuracy, but you can only do so much in a long range outlook. Obviously not everybody bounded by the white on my map would get snow, there would be gaps of course, but thats the general outline of where the cold/warm and snow/below would be as I see it now. Could be dead wrong. I love your forecast for the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 I love your forecast for the southeast well thanks, and welcome to the board. I hope I'm wrong though...this would be the fourth year of above normal snow here, and I've seen enough for a while. But I hope you get more, if thats what you're wanting...and I'm guessing you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaiya Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 well thanks, and welcome to the board. I hope I'm wrong though...this would be the fourth year of above normal snow here, and I've seen enough for a while. But I hope you get more, if thats what you're wanting...and I'm guessing you do? I sure am I love snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 well thanks, and welcome to the board. I hope I'm wrong though...this would be the fourth year of above normal snow here, and I've seen enough for a while. But I hope you get more, if thats what you're wanting...and I'm guessing you do? EASY NOW BIG FELLA!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 EASY NOW BIG FELLA!!! if that's a marine biologist reference then I applaud you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 if that's a marine biologist reference then I applaud you LOL, nope he's just a snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Any possible correlations for the SE severe season next spring? Particularly considering the violence of this April. 6 minutes after posting an extensive thorough winter outlook, you ask about spring because you want to chase in the SE??? REALLY??? I hate to think of the alternative if you are not the best troll ever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 6 minutes after posting an extensive thorough winter outlook, you ask about spring because you want to chase in the SE??? REALLY??? I hate to think of the alternative if you are not the best troll ever.... This is an excellent winter outlook, don't really see the harm in asking him what his winter outlook would potentially mean for svr season next year. chill the hell out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Foothills, the current pattern on the models is definitely matching your winter outlook with ridging in the SW and waves diving down into the SE. It will be interesting to see how the west coast looks if / when we go through a period of high latitude blocking this winter. From what I've read, it looks like we will likely have a strongly negative PDO which coorelates to a negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 This is an excellent winter outlook, don't really see the harm in asking him what his winter outlook would potentially mean for svr season next year. chill the hell out. I don't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Robert, Well like a kid on x-mas eve I have waited all summer for this. I relize this is just a forecast but, with your work from last winter in mind. I am very happy to see what side of the fence you are on. I don't know you personally but would have to guess that you are very busy away from the board. With that in mind, as others have done, I would like to say thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts for winter 2011-12. Really a great & easy read for all. From Mets on down to Weenies! Can't wait for the winter discos and obs threads that lie ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 All it takes is one low to traverse way to the south. I lived in Florida as a kid back in the mid 70s. I remeber the snow in Orlando and the flurries we had at Patric AFB. It can happen... February 1973.... Sounds familiar? Good and thorough write-up, Foothills.... I'm sure many are hoping it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 6 minutes after posting an extensive thorough winter outlook, you ask about spring because you want to chase in the SE??? REALLY??? I hate to think of the alternative if you are not the best troll ever.... Any implications what this means for hurricane season 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Any implications what this means for hurricane season 2013? There will almost probably be hurricanes somewhere, but they may go by another name. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 well thanks, and welcome to the board. I hope I'm wrong though...this would be the fourth year of above normal snow here, and I've seen enough for a while. But I hope you get more, if thats what you're wanting...and I'm guessing you do? whoa....so who hijacked your computer and posted this message? and i thought you were on our (snow lovers) side lol - even living in MN i never got enough snow (the extreme cold, on the other hand, is a completely different matter lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Is MIKE near you? I hope Robert's forecast is wrong also, but the NAO and AO are the big dogs for our winter forecast. Plus he's one of the best. Just hope the cold and snow comes and goes fast. People are hurting out there. This is the first time and the last time I will wish for a warm dry winter. But, several people I know would have a hard time paying their bills if this turns out to be a cold, snowy, wet winter. No disrespect Robert EASY NOW BIG FELLA!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Is MIKE near you? I hope Robert's forecast is wrong also, but the NAO and AO are the big dogs for our winter forecast. Plus he's one of the best. Just hope the cold and snow comes and goes fast. People are hurting out there. This is the first time and the last time I will wish for a warm dry winter. But, several people I know would have a hard time paying their bills if this turns out to be a cold, snowy, wet winter. No disrespect Robert we all struggling! Burn wood!!! Sounds like you were in Wilkesboro yesterday and in Greensboro today with Frosty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 February 1973.... Sounds familiar? Good and thorough write-up, Foothills.... I'm sure many are hoping it comes to fruition. great year!!! That's when I was born Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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