Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 By the way with the exception of the showers on Jan 2 which only measured a trace in Central Park, tomorrow will be one full month since they've had measurable RAINfall. Pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 In the medium range it sure does look like the PNA will be substituting for the NAO as the cold source. If the MJO holds, that will be a good pattern change indicator, if the PNA gets positive in spite of the MJO, well I should stick to 48hrs and in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The models are hinting at yet another potential system from the 1/18-1/20 time frame. This system looks to be more gulf based as a long wave trough travels eastward. Several pieces of energy are forecasted to dive south and rotate through the trough potentially spinning up yet another coastal or perhaps less organized areas of heavy preip. Some of the precip looks to potenially fall as heavy rain and with warmer temperatures, a pretty massive snowpack in most of the area and perhaps widespread heavy rain the potential will definitly exist for flooding. Are some of the models are predicting heavy rain and warmth? I did not go over them yet but I was under the impression that it wasn't going to warm up that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Are some of the models are predicting heavy rain and warmth? I did not go over them yet but I was under the impression that it wasn't going to warm up that much. Yes. 12z GFS @ 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Are some of the models are predicting heavy rain and warmth? I did not go over them yet but I was under the impression that it wasn't going to warm up that much. The pattern looks to have ridging along the east coast with a long wave trough progressing from west to east. At some point, the trough digs pretty far south and you can see energy building in TX. Reminds me of the Boxing day event. As multiple S/W's dive south into the trough a storm builds across the south and into the southeast and then eventually up the coast. Temp's out ahead look too warm for snow but the GEFS suggests snow north and west of I-95 with rain along the coast and possible ice between and in NE. Plenty of time to track this one but it looks like it will have plenty of energy to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yes. 12z GFS @ 150 hrs. this figures- as soon as the lows go inland - the warmth shows up - the snow drought continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 this figures- as soon as the lows go inland - the warmth shows up - the snow drought continues It's not going to be that warm and if anything it looks like this will emerge off the coast near the Delmarva so the best places for snow will likely be NE PA, NW NJ, and up into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 GGEM appears to be digging more and colder overall for that same system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think any kind of warming will be brief and not torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It's not going to be that warm and if anything it looks like this will emerge off the coast near the Delmarva so the best places for snow will likely be NE PA, NW NJ, and up into NE. Then why is the 540 line so far near the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Arctic tundra incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Then why is the 540 line so far near the lakes? It's laughable and ludicrous to believe the GFS is depicting the 540 line correctly this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Not all that surprising that Hawaii has snow, as the tops of their volcanoes are high enough up for a wide variety of climates as you go up in height. Kind of like the winter of 76-77 (maybe 77-78) I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Arctic tundra incoming. This is more like it. This is believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This is more like it. This is believable Don't buy into any solution this far out. Setups wll change a million times from now until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowbo Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Different models and different forecasters have a range of opinions on the next one. All I know is that it keeps popping up around Jan. 19th. Should we get interested in this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 this figures- as soon as the lows go inland - the warmth shows up - the snow drought continues You'd get ice on top of your snow if the GFS verifies as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think the next few days will be below normal than up to seasonable, we'll get a warm rainstorm on the 18-19 (maybe some flooding due to the snow pack- TBD) Then we're going to see another big arctic intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 In the medium range it sure does look like the PNA will be substituting for the NAO as the cold source. If the MJO holds, that will be a good pattern change indicator, if the PNA gets positive in spite of the MJO, well I should stick to 48hrs and in. I noticed that about the mjo and almost posted something but decided not to as the models do seem to like a PNA. Someone on the Post website asked me for a long range forecast. lol, not something I'm ready to do except on a chat forum like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 In the medium range it sure does look like the PNA will be substituting for the NAO as the cold source. If the MJO holds, that will be a good pattern change indicator, if the PNA gets positive in spite of the MJO, well I should stick to 48hrs and in. I noticed that about the mjo and almost posted something but decided not to as the models do seem to like a PNA. Someone on the Post website asked me for a long range forecast. lol, not something I'm ready to do except on a chat forum like this one. Clearly, I'm confused. The MJO will be heading into Phase 7 over the weekend/early next week. Shouldn't that favor a +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I noticed that about the mjo and almost posted something but decided not to as the models do seem to like a PNA. Someone on the Post website asked me for a long range forecast. lol, not something I'm ready to do except on a chat forum like this one. Wes, Thanks for your insights about yesterday, we did get some zr/ip along the coast and at the onset almost to phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think the next few days will be below normal than up to seasonable, we'll get a warm rainstorm on the 18-19 (maybe some flooding due to the snow pack- TBD) Then we're going to see another big arctic intrusion. Dont think we will get a rainstorm next week maybe along the immediate coast but Inland will be snow and ice for at least part of the time depending on Track and how strong storm is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Clearly, I'm confused. The MJO will be heading into Phase 7 over the weekend/early next week. Shouldn't that favor a +PNA? Looks to me that the PNA is going positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Looks to me that the PNA is going positive. Right, but Tony and Wes made it sound like it would be going positive in spite of the MJO. That's that part I didn't follow, because I was thinking the MJO was forcing the pattern to the +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Any euro update on the day 6-7 system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Any euro update on the day 6-7 system? i think Tom is still sleeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Right, but Tony and Wes made it sound like it would be going positive in spite of the MJO. That's that part I didn't follow, because I was thinking the MJO was forcing the pattern to the +PNA. I thought it was in phase 5 so my mistake. I looked yesterday and thought I saw it there. Is that wrong? or is it in 5 and forecast to go to phase 7. If so, that would be consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I thought it was in phase 5 so my mistake. I looked yesterday and thought I saw it there. Is that wrong? or is it in 5 and forecast to go to phase 7. If so, that would be consistent. Wes, the MJO is still in phase 5, but it's heading towards 6. http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 I thought it was in phase 5 so my mistake. I looked yesterday and thought I saw it there. Is that wrong? or is it in 5 and forecast to go to phase 7. If so, that would be consistent. Yeah, it's in 5, but should be in 7 in a week, according the ECM and the stat based stuff I've looked at. Stat-based Hovmoller: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovs/7.5S_7.5N/2011.png That's new today, which shows a dampening of the MJO. As of yesterday, it brought it all the way to the date line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Any euro update on the day 6-7 system? It's there and on the coast, but still looking warm. There's not a lot of cold air in place according to either the GFS or Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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