am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I tend to believe that a solution such as the 1/4 12z gfs which would bring sleet to the coastal plain is the furthest left solution we will see with this pattern (save the ggem run from yesterday that showed a lakes cutter). The reason being the block which looks like it is in central Canada somewhere by this time. The 12z gfs yesterday amplified/closed off the system so far west that it normally would have cut into the Plains. But the block kept our heights just low enough even with the 50/50 largely on its way out and it kept opening up and shifting south until it reformed offshore. It was crawling too and trying to amplify. I haven't looked terribly into it, but I would tend to believe that a solution scooting south and out to sea is more likely than a lakes cutter on Jan 11-12th. FWIW, Wes agrees with you that the OTS or coastal solutions are more likely than the OH Valley Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This thread will be the main thread to discuss the medium range. If a storm gets close enough, it will be broken into two regional threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Something that has peeked me interest is the potential for a Ice storm for the Mid-Atlantic, NE, and others for next Weekend, here is the 00z Day 9-10 EURO and todays 12z GFS, I highlighted where there seems to be a wedge setup by High Pressure in SE Canada. The GFS shows a low scooting north of the lakes, but the EURO holds the wedge and develops a low off the coast. Nothing to lose sleep over, but some potential for an "Icy" situation in the big cities in the East IMO. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Something maybe to watch, it looks like the Pacific Jet may be getting ready to roar the last week in January, both the epo and wpo fcst to go positive, I don't think that has happened since November. The NAO doesn't look "as positive". Of course this could be like expected cold snaps in a warm winter, always 348 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Something maybe to watch, it looks like the Pacific Jet may be getting ready to roar the last week in January, both the epo and wpo fcst to go positive, I don't think that has happened since November. The NAO doesn't look "as positive". Of course this could be like expected cold snaps in a warm winter, always 348 hours away. Not only do they get delayed, they also tend to get weakened and shortened when they do get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not only do they get delayed, they also tend to get weakened and shortened when they do get here. The NAO stills looks extremely negative in the long range, just as the Pacific pattern is breaking down a bit. We could stay in moderately cold temperatures with more storm threats after the arctic outbreak/-EPO period if we have a raging Pacific jet combined with an NAO block in the right position. We actually don't want too much arctic cold since that tends to suppress the storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The NAO stills looks extremely negative in the long range, just as the Pacific pattern is breaking down a bit. We could stay in moderately cold temperatures with more storm threats after the arctic outbreak/-EPO period if we have a raging Pacific jet combined with an NAO block in the right position. We actually don't want too much arctic cold since that tends to suppress the storm threats. yea this is why we shouldnt want an 80s type severe arctic break. We want moderate cold, not severe cold. Highs in the low 30s are just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 hasn't updated since yesterday, but the ukmet mjo forecast is jumping towards the ncep one with going towards 8 phase, the euro one still isn't that bullish though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 euro h5 ens mean at hr 240, rebuilding the west based -nao again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 yea this is why we shouldnt want an 80s type severe arctic break. We want moderate cold, not severe cold. Highs in the low 30s are just fine. I want the Arctic cold just for about a week, then I want it to retreat for more storminess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I want the Arctic cold just for about a week, then I want it to retreat for more storminess! i agree, i want to get a snow pack, then bring down the arctic. I'd like to see if we could reach 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 i agree, i want to get a snow pack, then bring down the arctic. I'd like to see if we could reach 0. Yes I would too. Here is the kicker though -unless the snow hole gets filled by the next two storms. it's not going to happen. Having a brown surface for almost half of PA is not going to send the temps down. So, if you want cold, we better pray that the next storm is not another coastal but coastal hugger or applachian runner. If next weekends storm turns out to be an Appalachian runner, you better call in the utility companies asap from ohio and deep south now because the chances of a severe ice storm is high and power will be out. One could only imagine the power out with record cold temps in the mid-atlantic area. This is a legitimate concern. Instead of talking up snow totals, the ice threat may be the story in the next two weeks, especially if another storm rears its ugly head after the cold wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yea this is why we shouldnt want an 80s type severe arctic break. We want moderate cold, not severe cold. Highs in the low 30s are just fine. 33 and snow is just fine in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not only do they get delayed, they also tend to get weakened and shortened when they do get here. Greg, Its still going/marching forward in time as of today. The GFS and (looks slightly less) the ECMWF have that PNA shot after MLK weekend, after that the Pacific Jet is still roaring and it looks like -nao east on our side of the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Greg, Its still going/marching forward in time as of today. The GFS and (looks slightly less) the ECMWF have that PNA shot after MLK weekend, after that the Pacific Jet is still roaring and it looks like -nao east on our side of the pond. yea i agree Tony; all the major teleconnections, pna,ao,nao look to go towards really a neutral state down the road, which argues for an ease and more zonal and typical la nina conditions. Only saving grace, is that a good bit of the mjo forecast rotate around towards the phase 8 stage, but the mjo has not really been the driving force of this pattern this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yea i agree Tony; all the major teleconnections, pna,ao,nao look to go towards really a neutral state down the road, which argues for an ease and more zonal and typical la nina conditions. Only saving grace, is that a good bit of the mjo forecast rotate around towards the phase 8 stage, but the mjo has not really been the driving force of this pattern this winter so far. Tom, Wow I haven't looked at those outlooks for a while, that would have to be a force down the road around the start of February. That is quite a robust of an outlook by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Tom, Wow I haven't looked at those outlooks for a while, that would have to be a force down the road around the start of February. That is quite a robust of an outlook by the GFS. yea i believe i posted it last week and adam commented back and basically said the gfs was the only one going that robust. It seems now that a good bit of the other members including the ukmet are going that direction to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yea i believe i posted it last week and adam commented back and basically said the gfs was the only one going that robust. It seems now that a good bit of the other members including the ukmet are going that direction to. Yeah something to watch, would make the thaw short lived if that progresses forward in time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Greg, Its still going/marching forward in time as of today. The GFS and (looks slightly less) the ECMWF have that PNA shot after MLK weekend, after that the Pacific Jet is still roaring and it looks like -nao east on our side of the pond. then you get the 12z gfs....enough said...rebuilds the -nao and pos pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The mjo indicators are still showing a huge jump towards phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 12z ECM looks good in the long range as a large Pacific ridge starts to develop, bringing the cold air associated with the PV over Canada into the United States: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 The mjo indicators are still showing a huge jump towards phase 8 Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this first. Archambault event around Jan 20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this first. Archambault event around Jan 20? euro has been trying the last 3 runs. Each run further east and colder.... I know we want the mjo in the phase 7-2, but what does the signify? Rdiging west, trof east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 euro has been trying the last 3 runs. Each run further east and colder.... I know we want the mjo in the phase 7-2, but what does the signify? Rdiging west, trof east? Ask yourself, "Self, what would happen if I released a bunch of mid-level latent heat around the dateline." Or if you don't feel like being that existential, just look at the Phase 8 analogs here: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this first. Archambault event around Jan 20? Got a linky for this type of storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Got a linky for this type of storm? http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007MWR2308.1 http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_7665/is_201009/ai_n56227577/ Essentially, a major KU storm can snap the NAO from negative to positive, much the same way a recurving hurricane can, by increasing the subtropical ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ask yourself, "Self, what would happen if I released a bunch of mid-level latent heat around the dateline." Or if you don't feel like being that existential, just look at the Phase 8 analogs here: http://raleighwx.ame...wx.com/MJO.html Even on the CPC site phase 8 is mighty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Even on the CPC site phase 8 is mighty cold. tony, quick question of topic, are they going to have the skywarn tomorrow night in delco? Back on topic, the euro the last 3 runs is really building that pna ridge up into alaska. hr 240 extropolated looks like another siberian airmass dropping south into the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 tony, quick question of topic, are they going to have the skywarn tomorrow night in delco? Back on topic, the euro the last 3 runs is really building that pna ridge up into alaska. hr 240 extropolated looks like another siberian airmass dropping south into the northern plains. Yup. Now watch, this has the biggest KU signal of the winter so far in the medium range (way more than Boxing Day or the storm tomorrow) and will whiff by 300 mi OTS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://journals.amet...5/2007MWR2308.1 http://findarticles....9/ai_n56227577/ Essentially, a major KU storm can snap the NAO from negative to positive, much the same way a recurving hurricane can, by increasing the subtropical ridge. Ah yes, the famed pattern change event. I'll read those links in more detail soon, but quickly glancing at the 500mb charts it appears that there's direct interaction with the polar vortex into the E CONUS troughing much like the GFS shows. Thanks for the links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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