The PHL/NYC Medium Range Thread - Part 2

[Rainshadow]

I'll trust the pros on this one and picking out maps on specific days does'nt prove anything.

Whether its an el nino or la nina they both normally peak in December, so the fact that either fade as the winter progresses its not a surprise, the question becomes more of the magnitude of the fading. In some of the faster fading winters 1916-7, 1955-6, there were bigger events at the back end. Even in those that didn't (Jan 2000), (Feb 1972) the stars can align.

I'm keeping December 17th as the test date for the nao vs the mjo/epo.

[Allsnow]

Whether its an el nino or la nina they both normally peak in December, so the fact that either fade as the winter progresses its not a surprise, the question becomes more of the magnitude of the fading. In some of the faster fading winters 1916-7, 1955-6, there were bigger events at the back end. Even in those that didn't (Jan 2000), (Feb 1972) the stars can align.

I'm keeping December 17th as the test date for the nao vs the mjo/epo.

Tony dont you think it would be some pretty junky luck if we get out of December without atleast a advisory type event from phl-nyc?

[Rainshadow]

Tony dont you think it would be some pretty junky luck if we get out of December without atleast a advisory type event from phl-nyc?

I would agree. Assuming that the negative nao is going to go into Canada and the Pacific stays open, you'd start to get more of a wave train of systems crossing the country instead of being crushed by a blocking vortex in the maritimes. Relative to normal heights for a while would be lower in the conus, so as been stated this would set up some overrunning events until the -nao meets its demise. Still its pacific air so I think there is going to be a pretty steep chance gradient with this pattern from Bos's latitude (great) to DC's or Richmonds (I'd have some doubts).

[Allsnow]

I would agree. Assuming that the negative nao is going to go into Canada and the Pacific stays open, you'd start to get more of a wave train of systems crossing the country instead of being crushed by a blocking vortex in the maritimes. Relative to normal heights for a while would be lower in the conus, so as been stated this would set up some overrunning events until the -nao meets its demise. Still its pacific air so I think there is going to be a pretty steep chance gradient with this pattern from Bos's latitude (great) to DC's or Richmonds (I'd have some doubts).

Thanks Tony......i love the cold, but i guess we are going to have to try our luck in a gradient type pattern.......lets just remove any past memory about last winter...and shoot for 20-25 for the year.

[Rainshadow]

Thanks Tony......i love the cold, but i guess we are going to have to try our luck in a gradient type pattern.......lets just remove any past memory about last winter...and shoot for 20-25 for the year.

Very wise indeed. If we were having a weak el nino and this was occurring, my reaction to the pattern would not be as civil.

For some reason I can't attach maps from my pc at home and this is at the other site too, so my pc settings must be off. This link map is going to change tomorrow, this is what I meant in the previous post:

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_0z/f324.html

[Allsnow]

Very wise indeed. If we were having a weak el nino and this was occurring, my reaction to the pattern would not be as civil.

For some reason I can't attach maps from my pc at home and this is at the other site too, so my pc settings must be off. This link map is going to change tomorrow, this is what I meant in the previous post:

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_0z/f324.html

Okay i see...basiclly we have this mundane pacfic cold air....with not real source of artic air in canada.....but with the west based -nao and 50/50 block, one would hope that would favor a track south out our area or redevelopment..........

[Rainshadow]

Hey I can attach again !

Here are the latest enso outlooks from australia and the cfs:

[am19psu]

The Aussie forecast is quite similar to our proprietary one.

[earthlight]

Very wise indeed. If we were having a weak el nino and this was occurring, my reaction to the pattern would not be as civil.

For some reason I can't attach maps from my pc at home and this is at the other site too, so my pc settings must be off. This link map is going to change tomorrow, this is what I meant in the previous post:

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_0z/f324.html

Great posts and the GFS has been indicative of this type of development for several days now. One has to wonder if the Euro weeklies were on to something a little while back when they showed the big time west based -NAO block that didn't give way until January (and was still relatively strong in height departures when the weeklies ended). The GFS link you posted is pretty far out in the long range, but you can see that the Pacific is getting into better shape. It's interesting because the weeklies indicated this as well (the pacific slowly improving). The entire GFS loop is pretty impressive, too. That's one of the more impressive blocking regimes I have seen in recent memory between 144 and 180 hours..+50 height anomalies on the western side of Greenland.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

[Chris L]

I really am encouraged for the potential of some moderate overrunning storms in that pattern. Atlantic ridiculous, Pacific atrocious..cant see a KU happening in that but come on now, we need to go back to reality I think after last winter (and this whole decade for that matter).

I agree.... With 4 Kocin-Uccellini events last season, we are not due for one for a long time.

And the whole decade was quite stunning for Kocin-Uccellini events...

January 2000-December 2000-February 2003-January 2005-February 2006-December 2009-February 2010 (1) February 2010 (2) February 2010 (3).

Quite remarkable.

[Analog96]

as I said in a prev post. Yea, it gets knocked down and then comes right back. I know from the KU book that a lot of our bigger storms actually come when the NAO is transitioning from negative to a little less negative. Perhaps we should look for the times this happens, since it has so far, for something to pop. It's all about timing tho.

It has been proven that the majority of big snowstorms occur during NAO phase changes. Would be interesting to see if we can get that to happen this year.

[am19psu]

I agree.... With 4 Kocin-Uccellini events last season, we are not due for one for a long time.

Not to derail the thread here, but this statement is wrong. You are employing the Gambler's Fallacy.

Of course, it is much less likely this year with no southern stream, but it has nothing to do with being due or not due.

[Chris L]

Not to derail the thread here, but this statement is wrong. You are employing the Gambler's Fallacy.

Of course, it is much less likely this year with no southern stream, but it has nothing to do with being due or not due.

I know I was going over the top with my statement, and yes you are right, but it does not seem likely....

[earthlight]

but it does not seem likely....

Bet you would've said the same thing five days prior to 2/12/06...

[NJwinter23]

I agree.... With 4 Kocin-Uccellini events last season, we are not due for one for a long time.

And the whole decade was quite stunning for Kocin-Uccellini events...

January 2000-December 2000-February 2003-January 2005-February 2006-December 2009-February 2010 (1) February 2010 (2) February 2010 (3).

Quite remarkable.

All i look forward to this winter is a fair share of light-moderate events, perhaps 1 or 2 widespread 4-8"ers making for a total between 18-25"...Thats about average to slightly below average for my area (from a Middlesex/Monmouth county vantage point), but striking gold in a strong la nina, at least compared to the ones since I've been alive (07-08, late 90s, strong one in late 80s all under 15", I assume it was similar in your area).

Let's not forget December 2003 on that list either by the way...

Jan 2000 7"

Dec 2000 14"

Dec 2003 12-13"

Feb 2003 23"

Jan 2005 16"

Feb 2006 13"

*Dec 2009 11-12"

*Feb 2010 7"

*Feb 2010 16"

Feb 2010 12"

*In New Brunswick instead of Holmdel

Holmdel did about 3" better in Dec 09 and Feb 5-6 10, and you can tack on another 10-11" storm in March of 09 for them as well...

[NJwinter23]

Not to derail the thread here, but this statement is wrong. You are employing the Gambler's Fallacy.

Of course, it is much less likely this year with no southern stream, but it has nothing to do with being due or not due.

You are of course correct, however, I think the over all message/comment was simply "look at all these KU storms in recent years, I almost feel like I should be punished in future years because of this stretch".. It's not meant to be taken scientifically or literally, but I think it weighs heavily on the fact that we've all been around for severe snow droughts where a storm like any one of those did not come around ever

[Chris L]

Bet you would've said the same thing five days prior to 2/12/06...

Actually John, you are right. I did.... Funny how I recall this.

[Rainshadow]

Great posts and the GFS has been indicative of this type of development for several days now. One has to wonder if the Euro weeklies were on to something a little while back when they showed the big time west based -NAO block that didn't give way until January (and was still relatively strong in height departures when the weeklies ended). The GFS link you posted is pretty far out in the long range, but you can see that the Pacific is getting into better shape. It's interesting because the weeklies indicated this as well (the pacific slowly improving). The entire GFS loop is pretty impressive, too. That's one of the more impressive blocking regimes I have seen in recent memory between 144 and 180 hours..+50 height anomalies on the western side of Greenland.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

I think part of the Pacific getting better will be predicated on the MJO completing the circuit vs just fading into the circle of death. If it does, it would set the Pacific in motion and also would be a sign of the nina weakening. But this is just WAG on my part, I'd go with persistence til it breaks, favorable nao, unfavorable pacific, climo getting colder.

[Rainshadow]

You are of course correct, however, I think the over all message/comment was simply "look at all these KU storms in recent years, I almost feel like I should be punished in future years because of this stretch".. It's not meant to be taken scientifically or literally, but I think it weighs heavily on the fact that we've all been around for severe snow droughts where a storm like any one of those did not come around ever

Well its the philosophical debate of I had a 1000 year storm this summer, I should be ok til 3110? Well not exactly. Both are right, the chances of a KU are less in a moderate/strong nina environment, but that doesn't mean it can not happen if conditions are right.

[Chris L]

I think part of the Pacific getting better will be predicated on the MJO completing the circuit vs just fading into the circle of death. If it does, it would set the Pacific in motion and also would be a sign of the nina weakening. But this is just WAG on my part, I'd go with persistence til it breaks, favorable nao, unfavorable pacific, climo getting colder.

Tony,

I am sure you have seen DT post at SV about the next 10 days, pretty interesting setup coming...

[Chris L]

You are of course correct, however, I think the over all message/comment was simply "look at all these KU storms in recent years, I almost feel like I should be punished in future years because of this stretch".. It's not meant to be taken scientifically or literally, but I think it weighs heavily on the fact that we've all been around for severe snow droughts where a storm like any one of those did not come around ever

Well done Chris. This is exactly what I was trying to get across. You explained it better than I could.

[usedtobe]

I think part of the Pacific getting better will be predicated on the MJO completing the circuit vs just fading into the circle of death. If it does, it would set the Pacific in motion and also would be a sign of the nina weakening. But this is just WAG on my part, I'd go with persistence til it breaks, favorable nao, unfavorable pacific, climo getting colder.

I made the same statement elsewhere, the problem is during some strong ninas it has a hard time completing its circuit. I agree about just sticking with persistence until something changes. That's not good for us as the Pacific keeps screwing up the storm track and we have a hard time getting a southern stream. The good news is we don't understand all the different forcing mechanisms that are involved in setting up or breaking down a pattern so we just swing towards what is the most common result given the signals we see. Sometimes, we (me especially) don't always understand the signals and how to weight them. My gut feeling is anyone thinking the odds are better than normal for a white xmas this year are probably mistaken. The odds are probably the same as in any other moderate to strong nina. The d+11 super ensemble analogs still don't paint a pretty picture for the DC to PHL corridor.

[Rainshadow]

I made the same statement elsewhere, the problem is during some strong ninas it has a hard time completing its circuit. I agree about just sticking with persistence until something changes. That's not good for us as the Pacific keeps screwing up the storm track and we have a hard time getting a southern stream. The good news is we don't understand all the different forcing mechanisms that are involved in setting up or breaking down a pattern so we just swing towards what is the most common result given the signals we see. Sometimes, we (me especially) don't always understand the signals and how to weight them. My gut feeling is anyone thinking the odds are better than normal for a white xmas this year are probably mistaken. The odds are probably the same as in any other moderate to strong nina. The d+11 super ensemble analogs still don't paint a pretty picture for the DC to PHL corridor.

Wes,

If the 8-14 day set-up is close to being true, I would agree the farther south, the lower the chances. We must think alike, (I feel sorry for you) yesterday was the first time in a long time when I read the pmdhmd that I looked at the analog years, nothing jumped out at me.

[tombo82685]

I made the same statement elsewhere, the problem is during some strong ninas it has a hard time completing its circuit. I agree about just sticking with persistence until something changes. That's not good for us as the Pacific keeps screwing up the storm track and we have a hard time getting a southern stream. The good news is we don't understand all the different forcing mechanisms that are involved in setting up or breaking down a pattern so we just swing towards what is the most common result given the signals we see. Sometimes, we (me especially) don't always understand the signals and how to weight them. My gut feeling is anyone thinking the odds are better than normal for a white xmas this year are probably mistaken. The odds are probably the same as in any other moderate to strong nina. The d+11 super ensemble analogs still don't paint a pretty picture for the DC to PHL corridor.

Wes do you have the link to this, or is it a pay site to aquire this?

[mattinpa]

12z GFS gives us a white Christmas.. also looks like good blocking in the long range.

[am19psu]

Wes do you have the link to this, or is it a pay site to aquire this?

Here is the link, Tom.

[Allsnow]

hr 156 has a central Va accumlating snowfall...other then some snow showers and flurries....this is the threat i think holds some intrest

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_156m.gif

[tombo82685]

Here is the link, Tom.

thank you, much appreciated.

[NJwinter23]

Well its the philosophical debate of I had a 1000 year storm this summer, I should be ok til 3110? Well not exactly. Both are right, the chances of a KU are less in a moderate/strong nina environment, but that doesn't mean it can not happen if conditions are right.

That is true. And to be honest It may be a strong nina and all, but with the -NAO pattern the way it continues to keep going (and where it appears to be heading at least the next 10 days with the AO to boot), who knows what will happen (Yes the Pacific looks equally awful through the 10 day stretch). Hypotheticially though, we may only be a brief cooperation of the Pacific (along with a little bit of luck as always) away from a KU (maybe not for the mid atlantic so much) with the northern annular mode the way it has been.

As you and others have mentioned though, let's see what the unfavorable MJO forcing will mean in the end over the next 1-2 weeks up against the blocking.

[easternsnowman]

Anywhere south of the mason-dixon line except the mountains will have a hard time getting much snow in this pattern. In the philly area that has elevation it would be better.