The PHL/NYC Medium Range Thread - Part 2

[A-L-E-X]

I was just speaking to Larry Cosgrove on facebook and he says that he does not like what he sees for the east until late February , early March. Winter looks to be done for the foreseeable future.

What did he say about this weekend and next week? I know Larry said earlier that winter was going to take a break south of 45N but if he thinks it comes back in late Feb early Mar, his thoughts are very much in line with Don S and WSI.

Three analogs on the table: 1993-94, 2000-01 and 2003-04

[MJO812]

The EPO is going negative. That is one good thing for our area.

What did he say about this weekend and next week? I know Larry said earlier that winter was going to take a break south of 45N but if he thinks it comes back in late Feb early Mar, his thoughts are very much in line with Don S and WSI.

Three analogs on the table 1993-94, 2001-02 and 2003-04

I don't know about this weekend but he thinks the storm for next week is going to hit the midwest.

[MJO812]

12z Euro ensembles are really cold in the long range.

[Quakertown needs snow]

12z Euro ensembles are really cold in the long range.

after a warm up mid month or continued cold for the run?

[Harbourton]

after a warm up mid month or continued cold for the run?

Ensembles(12Euro} have backed off some on the cold shot out at 216 - 240hrs and the trough looks to be transient.

[am19psu]

Ensembles(12Euro} have backed off some on the cold shot out at 216 - 240hrs and the trough looks to be transient.

11-15d is near normal across the whole CONUS. Tells me it's not a high confidence forecast...

[tombo82685]

The EPO is going negative. That is one good thing for our area.

I don't know about this weekend but he thinks the storm for next week is going to hit the midwest.

then it goes big time positive.

[Quakertown needs snow]

JB this afternoon... for later this month

"Do not be surprised, folks, if it hits 70 in D.C"

[mnweather]

then it goes big time positive.

What is the EPO exactly? I think it going positive would bode well for my area. Thanks.

[tombo82685]

then it goes big time positive.

What is the EPO exactly? I think it going positive would bode well for my area. Thanks.

when you get a positive epo it allows the cold air to settle into alaska. When its negative its ridging into alaska forcing the colder air out of alaska area and into canada which then can be brought down into the US.

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

JB this afternoon... for later this month

"Do not be surprised, folks, if it hits 70 in D.C"

Mmm...

Sounds like 60s up to philly then. Might break out the shorts/t-shirt for a bit.

[nzucker]

Mmm...

Sounds like 60s up to philly then. Might break out the shorts/t-shirt for a bit.

The 0z ECM didn't look favorable for a significant warm-up in the Northeast; we get a significant arctic outbreak in the Day 7 timeframe, followed by some moderation. However, the AO is going severely negative, with a developing -NAO, as you can see from this NH map:

I was never on board for a huge warm-up in the first part of February...I think there'll be some moderation as the SE ridge has become a bit more prevalent with storms tracking through the Plains/Midwest, but the -EPO block transitioning into a -AO keeps cold air over Canada, not allowing us to torch. Severe high-latitude blocking looks to return by mid-February as Don Sutherland discussed in his extremely insightful thread.

[Harbourton]

First time the Euro ensembles (0Z) have showed the NAO going negative in a long while. Interesting development.

[Bilas]

JB this afternoon... for later this month

"Do not be surprised, folks, if it hits 70 in D.C"

I'm sorry JB has been terrible all winter who really listens too him he just likes hearing himself talk! I don't believe him.

[am19psu]

If the reforecast ensembles are right, it's going to get cold across the entire country, except the SE.

I'm not sure I believe the NAO will go that negative, but I am still favoring cool across the Northern Tier through February. I'm not buying into the torch forecasts that Bastardi and others are putting out. Unfortunately, that pattern isn't particularly conducive to snow, either.

[blazess556]

Miller A time on the 12z GFS at 156 hrs. Euro has been hinting at a storm in this time frame too.

[Isotherm]

My storm/pattern thoughts. I think a thaw is likely after the 15th with a tanking PNA.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/336

[NJwinter23]

while the time for a warmup would definitely be around the 14th and beyond, I'm not so sure it will happen/be substantial. it appears the AO should be going solidly negative in the next week. I'm not confident that would break down so quickly, and whose to say this isn't the 2nd half major blocking period , which Don and others have supported, starting to take over?

[am19psu]

while the time for a warmup would definitely be around the 14th and beyond, I'm not so sure it will happen/be substantial. it appears the AO should be going solidly negative in the next week. I'm not confident that would break down so quickly, and whose to say this isn't the 2nd half major blocking period , which Don and others have supported, starting to take over?

The Euro weeklies are showing the -NAO coming back the last 10 days of Feb, but the Pacific pattern is kinda awful with the PV in Western Canada. It also allows the SE ridge to be in place.

But I agree, I still don't think there is a sustained week long or more warm up in the cards.

[NJwinter23]

The Euro weeklies are showing the -NAO coming back the last 10 days of Feb, but the Pacific pattern is kinda awful with the PV in Western Canada. It also allows the SE ridge to be in place.

But I agree, I still don't think there is a sustained week long or more warm up in the cards.

Cool. There are definitely good signals that youve brought up here the past few days pointing to the warm up that can't be disregarded. In light of that, if I had to guess right now I'd also say it would a be a few day (5?) period where the SE ridge flexes because of the -PNA, but it's kept in check a bit from another indice, perhaps the AO, such that it isnt an all out torch outside of maybe the SE/southern mid-Atlantic states. We shall see.

[Isotherm]

I agree, there should be enough resistance from the AO/NAO to keep the Northeast from torching (Mid-atlantic, Southeast is a different story). But it will certainly be a temp moderation and a thaw from what we've experienced over the past 8 weeks. The trough axis should pull back further west, digging into the PAC-NW, then probably a more zonal WSW-ENE orientation of the jet from the Plains into New England. More like your "typical" Nina regime for a couple weeks.

[Allsnow]

I agree, there should be enough resistance from the AO/NAO to keep the Northeast from torching (Mid-atlantic, Southeast is a different story). But it will certainly be a temp moderation and a thaw from what we've experienced over the past 8 weeks. The trough axis should pull back further west, digging into the PAC-NW, then probably a more zonal WSW-ENE orientation of the jet from the Plains into New England. More like your "typical" Nina regime for a couple weeks.

Well at that point tom there is only a couple weeks left in febuary, then we head into march. If this pattern does come to reality, i believe this will be end. Which we have nothing to complain about as we have gotten a huge amount of snow. Would really like to break nyc record of 72.

[Chris L]

Well at that point tom there is only a couple weeks left in febuary, then we head into march. If this pattern does come to reality, i believe this will be end. Which we have nothing to complain about as we have gotten a huge amount of snow. Would really like to break nyc record of 72.

Tim, Ninas in March tend to be more wintry...

[Isotherm]

Well at that point tom there is only a couple weeks left in febuary, then we head into march. If this pattern does come to reality, i believe this will be end. Which we have nothing to complain about as we have gotten a huge amount of snow. Would really like to break nyc record of 72.

I agree Tim, after next week's storm threat, we'll definitely have almost all of this winter behind us. But we can still get a pattern reload and a nice storm in early-mid March. March used to be snowier than December on avgerage, but the past decade has seen December move ahead in the snowfall standings. We've had 3-6" events common right up until St. Patrick's Day, plenty of time remaining.

Will be interesting to see if I can come close to last year's total of 72" in Monmouth County - wouldn't that be something, two consecutive years of 70"+ snowfall, like a NNE climate! All I need is 14"+ to do that.

[Allsnow]

Tim, Ninas in March tend to be more wintry...

Yes they do chris....but this has been so far nothing like a typical nina....we also thought last march would bring a repeat of febuary......Long range is a crap shoot, and i respect those who can give a educated opion. As i cant give a forcast more then 4-5 days out, as i dont have the knowledge. My fear is this pattern change ends it for us, i guess we shall see. I think the end of the week system holds alot of potential.....i guess its best for me to take one week at a time.

[nzucker]

I agree Tim, after next week's storm threat, we'll definitely have almost all of this winter behind us. But we can still get a pattern reload and a nice storm in early-mid March. March used to be snowier than December on avgerage, but the past decade has seen December move ahead in the snowfall standings. We've had 3-6" events common right up until St. Patrick's Day, plenty of time remaining.

Will be interesting to see if I can come close to last year's total of 72" in Monmouth County - wouldn't that be something, two consecutive years of 70"+ snowfall, like a NNE climate! All I need is 14"+ to do that.

I don't really agree...I think the signals all favor a rebuilding of the -NAO/-AO block given the disruption of the polar vortex, the amount of blocking we saw in December, and the reluctance of the solar activity to increase. The 12z ECM shows ridging over Northern Alaska/Beaufort Sea at Day 10, as well as high heights trying to poke into Greenland...NYC is still at -2C 850s with plenty of cold air in Canada. I think all this talk about a big thaw is an exaggeration: we're likely to see a -PNA gradient pattern that favors New England, but with the PV hanging out over Eastern/Central Canada and a -NAO, there's little likelihood for this to turn into an unmitigated torch and melt all our snowpack. We're probably talking a couple days in the 40s before a reload of the pattern, but that's basically climo for the latter half of February anyways.

We've also had a lot of good snow events in March, especially up here in Westchester. I remember having to remove an 8" snowpack from the high school tennis courts in late March 2004 after double-barrel storms, I remember the March 2009 Nor'easter that dumped 16" on Long Island, a very cold and stormy March in 2001, etc. So assuming the break in the pattern occurs around Valentine's Day or so, we'd still have the last week of February and then all of March to continue racking up the snow and cold. Sounds possible to me.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes they do chris....but this has been so far nothing like a typical nina....we also thought last march would bring a repeat of febuary......Long range is a crap shoot, and i respect those who can give a educated opion. As i cant give a forcast more then 4-5 days out, as i dont have the knowledge. My fear is this pattern change ends it for us, i guess we shall see. I think the end of the week system holds alot of potential.....i guess its best for me to take one week at a time.

Big difference is last year was an el nino.