Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The way the ens are portraying it, and the operational based on teleconnectors the pattern after day ten seems like swfe galore. With a mean troff in the west and a se ridge. The pattern to me in the long range looks horrid to my eyes. Honestly, if it was to switch to warm right now and never get anymore snow, i wouldn't have an issue with it. This winter exceeded my expectations by ten times, and im happy with that. basically what JB is saying on his video as mentioned above I'd like at least 2 more nice 6+ snows if possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The pattern looks fine to me on the 12z ECM once the arctic front goes through...NAO/AO is going severely negative as high heights develop in Eastern Greenland/North Atlantic and punch towards the North Pole, there's a big block over the Bering Strait with the coldest air over Canada, and we're in the midst of a significant arctic outbreak with 850s <-20C. Honestly, what's not to like, even if we do get some SWFE given the east-based nature of the Atlantic block and the -EPO? Could still tack on a bunch to our seasonal snowfall totals, see some interesting icing events, and then get back in shape for another round of coastals if the NAO decides to go west-based. Honestly I'm not too worried at this point, everything is still on track for a good February. I don't see it on the euro. Yes it has that arctic outbreak, but that looks transient big time.. Yea there is a block in the bering straights, but whats going to send that south? You have a pos nao, pos ao, pos epo, and a neutral at best pna..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 He is really putting a lot of faith in the Euro weeklies and the SE ridge exerting the dominant influence on the East. I mean, that's the biggest fear for my forecast, but I still think we're going to end up seeing more MJO/mountain torque forced cooling, at least in the Northeastern quadrant of the country. Then again, I'm no where near as accomplished at this stuff as some people on this board, so take what I think with a giant boulder of salt. 12z models have more than a glimmer for the cold to stick around. you might have done quite well by staying with the cold in the east fcst, despite the warm ens fcsts during the past few days beforehand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS showing the PV trying to get in on the action by 144...could be a big storm brewing with this threat as it has been shown on quite a few runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 troughing craps out by 168...more rain for PHL-NYC though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow pattern is horrid, with no upstream blocking the SE ridge flexes it's muscle and hgts are higher on the EC. A lot of interior cutting systems in such a pattern. Unless we see some type of blocking developing, it does not look pretty. We can only hope the pattern is just reloading the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Every winter usually has a relaxation period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow pattern is horrid, with no upstream blocking the SE ridge flexes it's muscle and hgts are higher on the EC. A lot of interior cutting systems in such a pattern. Unless we see some type of blocking developing, it does not look pretty. We can only hope the pattern is just reloading the next two weeks. How about being grateful for the amazing winter weather you've already had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How about being grateful for the amazing winter weather you've already had? Amen to that! 58" in 5 weeks, best 5 winter weeks ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z models have more than a glimmer for the cold to stick around. you might have done quite well by staying with the cold in the east fcst, despite the warm ens fcsts during the past few days beforehand I'm really going to need to mountain torque/PV disruption stuff to kick in around the 10th or so. If it goes +EPO/-PNA/+AO after that time frame, I'm toast. The Asian torques are really through the roof though. We'll see. I'm cautiously optimistic. To tombo's point earlier though, the pattern I'm envisioning is not a good snow pattern. It's one with a lot of southwest flow setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro ensembles are cold in the long range. Brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 JB this am... "WINTER SHIFTING WEST" "now we are seeing the La Nina taking hold." "The worst of winter is over for much of the East, though New England will continue to be abused" Break out the golf clubs and shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Euro ensembles are cold in the long range. Brrr. that might be the last brrr shot in the east till ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 that might be the last brrr shot in the east till ??? I think the pattern gets favorable by mid to late February. A lot of members want to drop the AO to negative by mid February. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Here is the PNA. It now looks like it will stay neutral in the foreseeable future http://www.cpc.ncep....a/pna.sprd2.gif It also looks like some members want to drop the NAO negative by mid month. http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif Should be really interesting to see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I realize this isn't a long-range thread, but do we think the Nina repeats next winter? Will it be like the three winters before last year where La Nina dominated or is this a non-repeat Nina? It seems like we haven't had a neutral phase in a while, tipping either the low or high end of the scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I realize this isn't a long-range thread, but do we think the Nina repeats next winter? Will it be like the three winters before last year where La Nina dominated or is this a non-repeat Nina? It seems like we haven't had a neutral phase in a while, tipping either the low or high end of the scale. Going by SOI and CPC's definition, technically 08-09 was neutral, though just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 JB this am... "WINTER SHIFTING WEST" "now we are seeing the La Nina taking hold." "The worst of winter is over for much of the East, though New England will continue to be abused" Break out the golf clubs and shorts I for one hope he's right... I need a break from tracking threats back east, and would like to actually enjoy some winter myself again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I for one hope he's right... I need a break from tracking threats back east, and would like to actually enjoy some winter myself again I think your area is going to start cashing in, while we go above normal over the east for february. If this is winters last wooo haa, no can complain with the amount of snow we have gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 JB this am... "WINTER SHIFTING WEST" "now we are seeing the La Nina taking hold." "The worst of winter is over for much of the East, though New England will continue to be abused" Break out the golf clubs and shorts what JB says makes sense-but he's been horrid this year and this LA Nina has produced alot of surprises... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think your area is going to start cashing in, while we go above normal over the east for february. If this is winters last wooo haa, no can complain with the amount of snow we have gotten. I doubt this whole month is done for the coast. There are signs of blocking coming back by mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 la nina winters with a cold December and January are milder on average in February and colder again in March...1955-56 is a good example of this...We are due for a big melt down...Will it happen in mid Feb.?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 la nina winters with a cold December and January are milder on average in February and colder again in March...1955-56 is a good example of this...We are due for a big melt down...Will it happen in mid Feb.?... My preference would be to keep February cold and wintry, then let the warm-up and meltdown begin in March and continue through the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My preference would be to keep February cold and wintry, then let the warm-up and meltdown begin in March and continue through the spring. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif The new CFS forecast for March says break out the shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My preference would be to keep February cold and wintry, then let the warm-up and meltdown begin in March and continue through the spring. I'm not greedy so if I don't see another snow flake the rest of the winter I'm still satisfied...I think we will see a thaw and the end of February or the beginning of March sees more wintry weather if not straight thru from now till then...1947-48 became warm around the first day of Spring...I'll take something like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This is from Don S in the Feb thread on the main forum. I still believe NYC will likely see 10" or more snowfall for February. I don't believe the thaw will mark the end of winter, but a pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm not greedy so if I don't see another snow flake the rest of the winter I'm still satisfied...I think we will see a thaw and the end of February or the beginning of March sees more wintry weather if not straight thru from now till then...1947-48 became warm around the first day of Spring...I'll take something like that... 1955-56 and 2000-01 sound like good analogs, and Ive seen a few long range forecasts that have us in strong blocking by early March which continues through March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was just speaking to Larry Cosgrove on facebook and he says that he does not like what he sees for the east until late February , early March. Winter looks to be done for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was just speaking to Larry Cosgrove on facebook and he says that he does not like what he sees for the east until late February , early March. Winter looks to be done for the foreseeable future. In some ways that's a bummer, but look on the bright side... it won't be long until we're all on SPC's site looking for some goodies. There's always some kind of weather to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Long range GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm not greedy so if I don't see another snow flake the rest of the winter I'm still satisfied...I think we will see a thaw and the end of February or the beginning of March sees more wintry weather if not straight thru from now till then...1947-48 became warm around the first day of Spring...I'll take something like that... I agree with your thoughts....makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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