MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A lot of cold air in the long range on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Models locking onto a +NAO/-PNA..... Where are you seeing this? The strongest signal for Week 2 right now is a -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Where are you seeing this? The strongest signal for Week 2 right now is a -EPO. hes solely going off the teleconnectors http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Where are you seeing this? The strongest signal for Week 2 right now is a -EPO. Well based off the teleconnections, NAO is going to be positive through the 2nd week with the PNA going downhill. We all know how those can flip in a hearbeat. Here is the EPO. Solid negative. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/epo.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gotcha. When you look at this, for example, I'd argue the two biggest features are the -EPO ridge and the Hudson Bay polar vortex. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Where are you seeing this? The strongest signal for Week 2 right now is a -EPO. GEFS with the ECM Ens mean showing that -EPO ridge but also negative anomaly heights just to the east of the immediate W US coast and focusing the troughing in the intermountain west and Plains. All show +NAO. This isn't a good pattern for the E US and in fact probably hints at the Valentine's Day warm-up that some are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gotcha. When you look at this, for example, I'd argue the two biggest features are the -EPO ridge and the Hudson Bay polar vortex. http://www.cpc.ncep....4analog.off.gif That's an ugly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Adam, Do you think for the rest of the winter, the pattern will be ENTIRELY Pacific driven? Because blocking isn't coming back anytime soon... Though maybe March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Gotcha. When you look at this, for example, I'd argue the two biggest features are the -EPO ridge and the Hudson Bay polar vortex. http://www.cpc.ncep....4analog.off.gif They'll keep us from torching...but will they keep it from raining with the next set of storms? You can see the SE ridge trying to poke around with that map. We'll see I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You guys need to read Bluewaves excellent new thread about Texas cold leading to an overall cold February. There's a pretty strong signal right here and the ever popular cold la nina analogs of 1917 and 1918 are involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 suspect we see -ao and block come over the top of greenland around the 14th of february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Fwiw, LC thinks the cold and snow will come back to the east for February.He also says that it may be the coldest February in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Adam, Do you think for the rest of the winter, the pattern will be ENTIRELY Pacific driven? Because blocking isn't coming back anytime soon... Though maybe March? No, I think there is moderate to high probability of an -AO or -NAO reappearing. Don S has shown some pretty strong statistics indicating reappearance of blocking after an early winter episode and the MJO should keep mountain torques going to disturb the polar vortex. They'll keep us from torching...but will they keep it from raining with the next set of storms? You can see the SE ridge trying to poke around with that map. We'll see I guess... Yeah, sorry. I always forget that the forecast that is most important to me isn't the most important to you guys. I'm really bucking the trend by telling my people that February will be cold in the East. But cold doesn't matter as much to you guys when it doesn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The long range on the 0z GFS run looks really cold . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Based on these teleconnections, I think a cold and stormy February predictions are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The teleconnections are not favorable for our area ATM but we all know that they can change. There looks to be signs of blocking coming back by mid February. I doubt that this month will be horrible for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The teleconnections are not favorable for our area ATM but we all know that they can change. There looks to be signs of blocking coming back by mid February. I doubt that this month will be horrible for our area. It certainly looks ugly pattern wise for the immediate future. La Nina is flexing it's muscle finally. All I know is outside today it seems like we are torching big time. Observations suggest upper 30's but I think we breeched the 40 degree mark today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GFS Still shows a snowstorm for Feb 10. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_252l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS = BRRRRR from Day 10 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS = BRRRRR from Day 10 on. I'll say more than brrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'll say more than brrrrr You got that right, GFS wants to rotate that PV right down to the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12Z euro 850 temps look pretty brutal at 240hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro over the next 10 days places 3 storms inland including tomorrow's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My god the EC is cold at 240... that's gotta be below zero for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My god the EC is cold at 240... that's gotta be below zero for the cities. come home for the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 JB's long ranger today was not pretty. He said around Valentine's Day winter goes away for 3-4 weeks. He called it a false spring since he expects it to turn ugly sometime in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 JB's long ranger today was not pretty. He said around Valentine's Day winter goes away for 3-4 weeks. He called it a false spring since he expects it to turn ugly sometime in March. He is really putting a lot of faith in the Euro weeklies and the SE ridge exerting the dominant influence on the East. I mean, that's the biggest fear for my forecast, but I still think we're going to end up seeing more MJO/mountain torque forced cooling, at least in the Northeastern quadrant of the country. Then again, I'm no where near as accomplished at this stuff as some people on this board, so take what I think with a giant boulder of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 He is really putting a lot of faith in the Euro weeklies and the SE ridge exerting the dominant influence on the East. I mean, that's the biggest fear for my forecast, but I still think we're going to end up seeing more MJO/mountain torque forced cooling, at least in the Northeastern quadrant of the country. Then again, I'm no where near as accomplished at this stuff as some people on this board, so take what I think with a giant boulder of salt. His medium and long range calls this winter have been horrible. He had to redo his winter forecast because he was busting badly so i'm not to concerned about what he said today. Who knows, maybe this time he will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The way the ens are portraying it, and the operational based on teleconnectors the pattern after day ten seems like swfe galore. With a mean troff in the west and a se ridge. The pattern to me in the long range looks horrid to my eyes. Honestly, if it was to switch to warm right now and never get anymore snow, i wouldn't have an issue with it. This winter exceeded my expectations by ten times, and im happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The way the ens are portraying it, and the operational based on teleconnectors the pattern after day ten seems like swfe galore. With a mean troff in the west and a se ridge. The pattern to me in the long range looks horrid to my eyes. Honestly, if it was to switch to warm right now and never get anymore snow, i wouldn't have an issue with it. This winter exceeded my expectations by ten times, and im happy with that. The pattern looks fine to me on the 12z ECM once the arctic front goes through...NAO/AO is going severely negative as high heights develop in Eastern Greenland/North Atlantic and punch towards the North Pole, there's a big block over the Bering Strait with the coldest air over Canada, and we're in the midst of a significant arctic outbreak with 850s <-20C. Honestly, what's not to like, even if we do get some SWFE given the east-based nature of the Atlantic block and the -EPO? Could still tack on a bunch to our seasonal snowfall totals, see some interesting icing events, and then get back in shape for another round of coastals if the NAO decides to go west-based. Honestly I'm not too worried at this point, everything is still on track for a good February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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