tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 nice west based block trying to develop days 9-10 on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mountain torques are going off again, this time in the Himalayas. I don't see how this doesn't disrupt the polar vortex into a -AO by Feb 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mountain torques are going off again, this time in the Himalayas. I don't see how this doesn't disrupt the polar vortex into a -AO by Feb 1. This is like a scramble in golf in which everyone on the team takes turns in hitting great shots. The NAO carried us in the first half of the winter, now the PNA is taking its turn. Pretty soon I'm going to have to start looking up what was the coldest mod/stg la nina in PHL's history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here's an example of what I mean for Elko... Our seasonal total so far is 26.4", which sounds good, right? Only slightly behind the park's 31.9... However, the biggest event so far was 4.5" in mid December. Everything else has been SMALLER than that. Sounds almost like Tamaqua.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here's an example of what I mean for Elko... Our seasonal total so far is 26.4", which sounds good, right? Only slightly behind the park's 31.9... However, the biggest event so far was 4.5" in mid December. Everything else has been SMALLER than that. Do they melt off in between events or do you get a lasting snowcover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Do they melt off in between events or do you get a lasting snowcover? Depends on the weather. Some years we don't have a lasting snow cover. This year we had snow cover from late November until mid December, lost it briefly, then got it back and just lost it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Jan 9.4 Feb 6.2 Mar 4.4 Apr 2.6 May 1.2 Jun 0.0 Jul 0.0 Aug 0.0 Sep 0.1 Oct 0.8 Nov 5.0 Dec 7.4 Wow, no need for a snowblower out there, ha? Leaf blower would probably to the trick. Side note: I love maps and geography, etc. and always thought Elko was in western NV until I googled it yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Miller A threat on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z UKMET has it too at 144 with closed off H5 and low brewing in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wow, no need for a snowblower out there, ha? Leaf blower would probably to the trick. Side note: I love maps and geography, etc. and always thought Elko was in western NV until I googled it yesterday. Our average ratio is 14:1, so while our snows definitely tend to be lighter and fluffier than the east coast, we can certainly get some low ratio slop. Yeah, if Elko was in western Nevada I'd probably work in Reno instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 FWIW, the reforecast ensembles are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA configuration with a -AO and east based -NAO block as we head into the first week in February. That agrees with the non-model stuff I've been looking at. That produces these temperature anomalies at H85 for the 8-14d period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 FWIW, the reforecast ensembles are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA configuration with a -AO and east based -NAO block as we head into the first week in February. That agrees with the non-model stuff I've been looking at. That produces these temperature anomalies at H85 for the 8-14d period. It's a Pacific driven pattern for brutal cold across the East on the gfs ensembles over the next 10 days. Amazing how it just has to be cold in the East this winter no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's a Pacific driven pattern for brutal cold across the East on the gfs ensembles over the next 10 days. Amazing how it just has to be cold in the East this winter no matter what. It's amazing to see such a powerful +PNA pattern with a strong La Niña and -PDO...basically the opposite of what you'd expect but convection near the Dateline is doing its job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Check out the blocking coming back full force first week of February, something Ampsu19 pointed out would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's a Pacific driven pattern for brutal cold across the East on the gfs ensembles over the next 10 days. Amazing how it just has to be cold in the East this winter no matter what. Yeah its just like a great scramble team in golf. Someone is coming through every time. Really no end in sight, this is the MJO driven push Adam posted that we are starting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 If you believe the statistical OLR anomalies from Paul Roundy, the atmosphere is going to behave like P6-7 for a while... The +PNA ridge might be here longer than I originally expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If you believe the statistical OLR anomalies from Paul Roundy, the atmosphere is going to behave like P6-7 for a while... The +PNA ridge might be here longer than I originally expected. How's this for an ensemble agreement right through 300 hrs. Seriously, there hasnt been one run of gfs ensembles that I've seen over the past week that didnt have a +PNA in the means rtight through 384hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If you believe the statistical OLR anomalies from Paul Roundy, the atmosphere is going to behave like P6-7 for a while... The +PNA ridge might be here longer than I originally expected. I hate you all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 next week looks interesting on some models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 FWIW, the GFS Reforecast Ensembles show the +PNA/-EPO staying through the first week of February. And look what's popping up over the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Most likely that block would continue to retrograde towards Greenland, if that's the case and we set up a dual blocking pattern, February will be an historic month.... FWIW, the GFS Reforecast Ensembles show the +PNA/-EPO staying through the first week of February. And look what's popping up over the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Most likely that block would continue to retrograde towards Greenland, if that's the case and we set up a dual blocking pattern, February will be an historic month.... i'm sure Don S. will like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 hmmmm,,, where did i see this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The Euro has shifted the 7 day storm 1000 miles east in three runs. It;s now OTS after running it to the Great Lakes. I imagine this will have some effect on its accuracy scores against the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The Euro has shifted the 7 day storm 1000 miles east in three runs. It;s now OTS after running it to the Great Lakes. I imagine this will have some effect on its accuracy scores against the other models. That has major potential on it.. the EURO again holds a cutoff in the S/W.. frame before this, northern branch digs down, but b.c the southern s/w is cut off and held back, no phase and an out to sea solution. Gonna be tough with that PIG of a PV sitting in SE canada, but can also help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm feeling pretty confident that we'll see the ridge over the West Coast shift west into a -EPO position by Feb 8-10. That means the cold will be centered across the Plains and could possibly bring a slight warm up here the week of Valentine's Day. That is, unless the -NAO pops back in. If that happens, the entire eastern 2/3 of the country will be below normal. I still don't have a good feel as to whether that will happen or not. The end of February looks to feature a +PNA again and, with it, more threats of major snows along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm feeling pretty confident that we'll see the ridge over the West Coast shift west into a -EPO position by Feb 8-10. That means the cold will be centered across the Plains and could possibly bring a slight warm up here the week of Valentine's Day. That is, unless the -NAO pops back in. If that happens, the entire eastern 2/3 of the country will be below normal. I still don't have a good feel as to whether that will happen or not. The end of February looks to feature a +PNA again and, with it, more threats of major snows along the coast. If the Euro weeklies are right, a +EPO/-PNA/+NAO sets up the 2nd half of the month. Not sure I'm buying that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Today's ECMWF ensemble supports the idea of retrograding the mean Northern stream trough into the upper Midwest by Feb 6-7, while the NAO becomes quite positive. I'm feeling pretty confident that we'll see the ridge over the West Coast shift west into a -EPO position by Feb 8-10. That means the cold will be centered across the Plains and could possibly bring a slight warm up here the week of Valentine's Day. That is, unless the -NAO pops back in. If that happens, the entire eastern 2/3 of the country will be below normal. I still don't have a good feel as to whether that will happen or not. The end of February looks to feature a +PNA again and, with it, more threats of major snows along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Today's ECMWF ensemble supports the idea of retrograding the mean Northern stream trough into the upper Midwest by Feb 6-7, while the NAO becomes quite positive. Yeah, I'm ok with little blocking in the Atlantic. Sooner or later, the Hadley Cell/Walker Circulation will win out with a STH building over the basin. With the strong convective signals out the Pacific though, I'll be surprised if a +EPO/-PNA sets up like the weeklies are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Models locking onto a +NAO/-PNA..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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