am19psu Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 The JB-bashing goes overboard here. The dude is obviously a good meteorologist, particularly in picking out medium range threats (though he has a high false alarm rate).That said, he invites criticism due to his posting style and some of the claims he makes about other meteorologists. Sounds familiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I agree with that; that time period really is hazy as far as knowing the values of the various indices, and besides which, Im wondering if there will be a "rubber band snap" at some point, where the pattern suddenly changes and doesnt go back. Last winter, with similar strong blocking, it happened after the big storm at the end of February. The problem with the older analogs is that we don't have upper air data at all, and nobody even knew what these indices were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The JB-bashing goes overboard here. The dude is obviously a good meteorologist, particularly in picking out medium range threats (though he has a high false alarm rate).That said, he invites criticism due to his posting style and some of the claims he makes about other meteorologists. Sounds familiar... He was very contrite today in his video, IMO. It pained him of course, but he earns further respect from me for the effort today. The vitriol is purely based on envy I think and I am one of those who gets upset when he lifts the weenie spirits and fails....It's all good, we're in the middle of an all time classic this winter and I am sure he'll make the proper adjustments and those of us who follow him won't be disappointed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Perhaps something for late next week! 12Z EC DAY 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 EC DAY 6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro shows -10F low temps in areas just N&W of the cities for next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I don't consider myself an apologist for JB or anyone else for that matter. I like to call things as I see them. But, I do know JB was the one to make a bold prediction in November about he amount of snow cover there would be in the US and was pretty accurate about it. I also do know he stayed his ground on the last NE snowstorms when the models flipped flopped faster than a fish out of water. He called for both storms to track up the coast with meteorologic reasoning and not simply model huggging that a lot of people in the industry seem to do. I think people can learn a lot from his reasonings and ideas. There's a saying: "A critic is a man who knows the way but can't drive the car." I really don't mind JB that much other than the fact he lets weenieism get to him sometimes on his predictions. He puts it all on the line, and sometimes it benefits him but it also sometimes bites him. At least he acknowledges when he's wrong (like the vast majority have been about forecasting this winter) and tries to fix it, and at least IMBY he's been on top of it during the last few storm threats. He rightfully downplayed the 3-6 or even higher predictions for NYC for the 1/8-9 event and got the 12/26 and 1/12 storms largely correct. You have to appreciate his work ethic also, he always keeps updated with his column and videos in addition to managing his other private clientele and his family/personal life. He has a presence as well at Penn State, particularly in weightlifting/wrestling and he stopped by Walker Bldg (the weather studio) at least a few times when I was there to speak to us. I've met him a couple of times at Accuwx and on campus, and he's definitely a very approachable and friendly person, more than willing to take as much time as possible to answer questions from people. He pretty much never has a free second of time where he's not working in some capacity. That's definitely something to admire about the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 18z GFS has back to back coastals in the long range. 2m temps are a little warm at this time, but the potential is there for a stormy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm still on the cold bandwagon through Jan 31. The MJO will be somewhere in the P1-P2 area by the end of the month, which means we should stay in the +PNA pattern through the end of Jan, suggesting cold through the end of the month. Now, the question is: what happens to the MJO after that? Does it keep going into P3-4-5, which are generally warm for the East Coast? Does it head back to the center? The latest stat forecasts suggest that the signal goes to the middle, with the possibility of swinging right back around to P6, but I consider that unlikely. My WAG is that we'll start February with an MJO heading back toward the middle. Now, that said, another big mountain torque event is going on across the Rockies right now, which appears to lead to a wave-1 polar vortex disruption in about 7-9 days and then a wave-2 disruption a few days after that. My guess is that will lead to the AO dropping again somewhere in the end of Jan/beginning of Feb which sets the stage for at least the start of the month to be cold in the East, probably through around Valentine's Day. Now that I've posted it, I'm sure Don S will come in with a February blowtorch forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GFS and GGEm both show a possible on storm around Jan 24-26 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 When is the NAO supposed to go negative again so that we can actually get an event that lasts 18-24 hours or so? The one we might get next week? The medium range signals aren't pointing to the -NAO/AO reappearing until February. I think we're just going to have to be happy to have a +PNA for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The medium range signals aren't pointing to the -NAO/AO reappearing until February. I think we're just going to have to be happy to have a +PNA for the rest of the month. Ah, sounds like a 1993-94 style pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The medium range signals aren't pointing to the -NAO/AO reappearing until February. I think we're just going to have to be happy to have a +PNA for the rest of the month. its funny how this winter is playing out...when we have the -NAO and AO we have no +PNA and vice versa...but somehow its appears like it will be cold and snowy during both periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The medium range signals aren't pointing to the -NAO/AO reappearing until February. I think we're just going to have to be happy to have a +PNA for the rest of the month. That's not making me particularly happy, let me tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 its funny how this winter is playing out...when we have the -NAO and AO we have no +PNA and vice versa...but somehow its appears like it will be cold and snowy during both periods. It might be a good thing they arent all coinciding-- it seems when that happens we get into a suppressed pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 That's not making me particularly happy, let me tell you What's your favorite kind of pattern, Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What's your favorite kind of pattern, Ray? Elko blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 What's your favorite kind of pattern, Ray? If I had to guess for his backyard, it would be a +EPO with a -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What's your favorite kind of pattern, Ray? a pattern that keeps the trof out west, so a -pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Elko blizzard Which wont happen with a +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Elko blizzard Elko hasn't had a snowstorm of 10" or more in 14 years. Which is sad because we have had some great snowfall totals for the season overall. We just don't get big ones here. Anyone who thinks they like lots of little snowfalls should come live here and then decide, because this is the land of many little snowfalls. I'll take two 1 foot storms over twelve 2" events any day of the week, month, year, century, millenium... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Elko hasn't had a snowstorm of 10" or more in 14 years. Which is sad because we have had some great snowfall totals for the season overall. We just don't get big ones here. Anyone who thinks they like lots of little snowfalls should come live here and then decide, because this is the land of many little snowfalls. I'll take two 1 foot storms over twelve 2" events any day of the week, month, year, century, millenium... i should live in elko then. I'll take a smattering of 12 2inch snow storms throughout the winter. Instead of 1 or 2 12 inch storms and thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Elko hasn't had a snowstorm of 10" or more in 14 years. Which is sad because we have had some great snowfall totals for the season overall. We just don't get big ones here. Anyone who thinks they like lots of little snowfalls should come live here and then decide, because this is the land of many little snowfalls. I'll take two 1 foot storms over twelve 2" events any day of the week, month, year, century, millenium... What is the snow average (by month) out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z GFS is cold and stormy in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z GFS is cold and stormy in the long range. Yeah, I'll take discussion of the second storm to this thread now. The streams are a little off, but can't ask for a lot more right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z GFS is cold and stormy in the long range. It has "threats", but they're pretty much all misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 It has "threats", but they're pretty much all misses. The GFS also has a huge PNA ridge in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i should live in elko then. I'll take a smattering of 12 2inch snow storms throughout the winter. Instead of 1 or 2 12 inch storms and thats it. If that's what you really like, then yes you should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What is the snow average (by month) out there? Jan 9.4 Feb 6.2 Mar 4.4 Apr 2.6 May 1.2 Jun 0.0 Jul 0.0 Aug 0.0 Sep 0.1 Oct 0.8 Nov 5.0 Dec 7.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Here's an example of what I mean for Elko... Our seasonal total so far is 26.4", which sounds good, right? Only slightly behind the park's 31.9... However, the biggest event so far was 4.5" in mid December. Everything else has been SMALLER than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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