Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I would think we should be rooting for a weaker wave and surface low in this pattern if we want to see a further east track and stay all frozen. Otherwise, any amplification with this system and there is nothing to stop it from cutting inland given the +NAO and our ridge being centered off the West coast. Then again the over all setup could shift as well in the next 5-7 days. Yeah that would be one of a couple of ways or if everything transpired faster and you'd spend more time in snow and less in something else. At this point every GEFS ensemble member is turning PHL, ABE & HPN over to rain with really not that much snow on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Getting beyond day7, my WAG the MJO influence would really be if the PNA starts reflexing its muscles during the last week of January. As for next week's cold, another WAG and simplistic thoughts are its driven by the PNA, looks like the NAO expected to be neutral or -NAO east might supply an escape hatch east. So given a guess as to where would this cold core miss if we don't get the sub 500 thicknesses would be east vs going down the central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Getting beyond day7, my WAG the MJO influence would really be if the PNA starts reflexing its muscles during the last week of January. As for next week's cold, another WAG and simplistic thoughts are its driven by the PNA, looks like the NAO expected to be neutral or -NAO east might supply an escape hatch east. So given a guess as to where would this cold core miss if we don't get the sub 500 thicknesses would be east vs going down the central plains. the ukmet is now more bullish than the gfs mjo run. Ukmet is driving this to phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the ukmet is now more bullish than the gfs mjo run. Ukmet is driving this to phase 1 At this rate, I'm going to have to find a golf course in Myrtle Beach for the next snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 At this rate, I'm going to have to find a golf course in Myrtle Beach for the next snow threat. does the mjo in the forecasted stages of phase 7,8,1 help in terms of establishing another -nao, is there any connection to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 does the mjo in the forecasted stages of phase 7,8,1 help in terms of establishing another -nao, is there any connection to it? 8 and 1 don't really have much correlation. It's much stronger across the Pacific. Phase 8 Phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 8 and 1 don't really have much correlation. It's much stronger across the Pacific. going by those graphs, it would seem like phase 7 going into 8 is your time frame for a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Wow the MJO forecast looks great for us. I was wondering what Phase 6 looks like for the eastern half though because that's the current phase we're in. Phase 1 looks pretty decent as well, at least in terms of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Here is the link where I am getting these graphs: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Here is the link where I am getting these graphs: http://raleighwx.ame...wx.com/MJO.html What is the relationship between a Phase 7 or 8 on the MJO and an Archibald (sp) event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 What is the relationship between a Phase 7 or 8 on the MJO and an Archibald (sp) event? There isn't one, so far as I know. Archambault events are when the NAO flips sign due to an extratropical cyclone. Think of it like this: as a storm rides up the Eastern Seaboard, there will be massive low level warm advection out in front of it. That will act to increase heights wherever the low level WAA is focused. If the orientation of the flow is such that the WAA increases the subtropical ridge, then the NAO will grow more positive in time. I'd suggested the possibility of an Archambault event because I was seeing signs of a +PNA from the MJO and I was also seeing signs that the NAO was going to flip from positive to negative in the Euro weeklies. Unfortunately, they appear to be two separate events, rather being interrelated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 for snowstorms in delaware valley mjo state goes as follows Phase 1- is ok, 2 and 3 are bad, 4, 5 and 6 are the worst, 7 is ok and 8 is prime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 question, would a ridge into the pac nw also extending warmer hgts into the baffin area act like a block? Or could we get an are of higher hgts pinch off from the pna ridge into the baffin island are, would that act like a block, kind of shown below. Granted its not at baffin but its getting closer to that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 question, would a ridge into the pac nw also extending warmer hgts into the baffin area act like a block? Or could we get an are of higher hgts pinch off from the pna ridge into the baffin island are, would that act like a block, kind of shown below. Granted its not at baffin but its getting closer to that region. I've never seen a block "back-build" like that. Even in the scenario you're describing, I would think it would act reinforce the vortex over Hudson Bay more than anything else. But Tony or someone else with more experience than me might be a better person to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here are the Euro weeklies. They have the +PNA pattern on week 2, but evolve ridging into AK and western Canada on week 3, while having a +nao. This drives some cold air right into the US. Week 4 also has a +NAO but week + height anomalies over nrn Canada. It basically keeps most of the US below normal. Week 4 looks kind of ugly in the Bering Sea, but verbatim the weeklies are cold. They abandoned the -nao idea too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here are the Euro weeklies. Yeah, the weeklies show no sign of sustained warmth. Although there is no -NAO, the -AO looks to come back in full force by 1/31. Glad to see they are supporting the tropical/stratospheric forecast that I've been looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 End of the month warm up for much of the USA and Canada? Eventually SE and NE since no discharge showing from the North. Yeah its 360hr but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 End of the month warm up for much of the USA and Canada? Eventually SE and NE since no discharge showing from the North. Yeah its 360hr but.... This doesn't look like a very realistic map...I see almost no areas of the Northern Hemisphere with below average departures. Where is the polar vortex located? Also, with a huge ridge over NW Canada as this map shows, you'd have below average temperatures in NYC metro...anytime you've got a massive +PNA/-EPO block, it's going to be more than just the Southeast that stays below normal, and that's the only area in blue on the map. This is the problem with using 360 hr progs, although I'd take this as a positive sign since all the models are building the Western Canada ridge (a plus for us!), and this shows a continuation of that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 JB today in his video is caving with his end of the month (& Feb) warm up.. not happy and needs to redo his rest of winter forecast. Good times ahead :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 JB today in his video is caving with his end of the month (& Feb) warm up.. not happy and needs to redo his rest of winter forecast. Good times ahead :snowman: He has been really awful this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 JB today in his video is caving with his end of the month (& Feb) warm up.. not happy and needs to redo his rest of winter forecast. Good times ahead :snowman: or it could be the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 or it could be the opposite Caused a semi-stir at work today because our official fcst for Feb is a "typical" Nina Feb. I should probably be quiet when I am talking about "new" things like the stratosphere and tropical forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Caused a semi-stir at work today because our official fcst for Feb is a "typical" Nina Feb. I should probably be quiet when I am talking about "new" things like the stratosphere and tropical forcing. as long as your tropical forecasting stays in phases 7-2 and does continuous loops in those areas then you can talk about it all you want. Honestly, it looks like we may see another surge in the -nap department. Couple that with a pos pna and -ao, could be the coldest airmass in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 as long as your tropical forecasting stays in phases 7-2 and does continuous loops in those areas then you can talk about it all you want. Honestly, it looks like we may see another surge in the -nap department. Couple that with a pos pna and -ao, could be the coldest airmass in years. Yeah, I'm really convinced that Feb is going to start out with at least a -AO for the first week to ten days. Hopefully I'm not putting too much faith in the persistence of blocking after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Caused a semi-stir at work today because our official fcst for Feb is a "typical" Nina Feb. I should probably be quiet when I am talking about "new" things like the stratosphere and tropical forcing. The thing is, we dont have enough of a sample size to know what "typical" really is-- 50 years is a drop in the bucket. I think we have to look at the older analogs like 09-10 and 16-17, which featured the same kind of blocking we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 The thing is, we dont have enough of a sample size to know what "typical" really is-- 50 years is a drop in the bucket. I think we have to look at the older analogs like 09-10 and 16-17, which featured the same kind of blocking we have right now. I'm not really using analogs so much as trying to figure out the dynamics of what's going on. The only stat I'm really using is Don S' research into the re-occurrence of strong blocking episodes in Feb after an earlier instance. You can certainly see how we get to the block in early Feb and then it's just a question of how long does it last. I wish the data were more complete from that time frame because it would really increase my confidence in using analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not really using analogs so much as trying to figure out the dynamics of what's going on. The only stat I'm really using is Don S' research into the re-occurrence of strong blocking episodes in Feb after an earlier instance. You can certainly see how we get to the block in early Feb and then it's just a question of how long does it last. I wish the data were more complete from that time frame because it would really increase my confidence in using analogs. I agree with that; that time period really is hazy as far as knowing the values of the various indices, and besides which, Im wondering if there will be a "rubber band snap" at some point, where the pattern suddenly changes and doesnt go back. Last winter, with similar strong blocking, it happened after the big storm at the end of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Monster block at Day 10 on the ECM with a 558dm closed ridge over Greenland: Really a double block pattern with the high pressures over both Alaska and Greenland, forcing all the cold into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z GFS develops a miller B for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 He has been really awful this winter. I don't consider myself an apologist for JB or anyone else for that matter. I like to call things as I see them. But, I do know JB was the one to make a bold prediction in November about he amount of snow cover there would be in the US and was pretty accurate about it. I also do know he stayed his ground on the last NE snowstorms when the models flipped flopped faster than a fish out of water. He called for both storms to track up the coast with meteorologic reasoning and not simply model huggging that a lot of people in the industry seem to do. I think people can learn a lot from his reasonings and ideas. There's a saying: "A critic is a man who knows the way but can't drive the car." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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