tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Hell no one sees snow til the storm gets to Maine what does it look to you. To me its that high sliding east and that northern stream storm that backs the flow to the south warming us up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I don't really know a lot about the MLK storm, to be honest...not something I've studied in depth. It just seems to me that the trend on the ECM is to reduce the importance of the northern stream shortwave, using the southern stream to create most of the storm. If this trend continues, the situation could trend colder with the low over Canada being much weaker and not inducing as much southerly flow. It tracked way closer to the coast than this Euro run shows...it also was not a very deep storm til it was NE of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I don't really know a lot about the MLK storm, to be honest...not something I've studied in depth. It just seems to me that the trend on the ECM is to reduce the importance of the northern stream shortwave, using the southern stream to create most of the storm. If this trend continues, the situation could trend colder with the low over Canada being much weaker and not inducing as much southerly flow. Understood. Have to look for that northern low being weaker on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 huge pna ridge hr 192, brutally cold air into the east northern plains and western lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 5 day Forecast has Monday in the low 30's shocking with Decent cold air in place and a Vintage snow track that could be all rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The trend all winter has been systems arriving 1 or even 2 days later than expected, that could help alot on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 this may be the coldest ive seen on the euro so far this year. Its pushing -5 temps to st louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 One has to really wonder why a model with a very progressive bias is alot slower then what the ECM is... By this point and time the ECM is up near Cape Cod... Meanwhile UKMET is further to the south... Now it is in the same relative spot as the GGEM but even the GGEM with its somewhat warm bias is colder then the ECM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The trend all winter has been systems arriving 1 or even 2 days later than expected, that could help alot on this one. true, but wouldn't thats push everything east, later phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 what does it look to you. To me its that high sliding east and that northern stream storm that backs the flow to the south warming us up? Yeah a 1028 high well southeast of Nova Scotia is certainly not good, and yep the northern stream is mucking up the whole thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 222 has sub -20 850s from dc north..-28-30 850s over western me and nh,vt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 true, but wouldn't thats push everything east, later phase? It could....honestly with the Euro's setup over the Atlantic the storm would probably track inland...the only issue is there is a squeeze play between the incoming arctic airmass...otherwise I'd say for sure the storm is a cutter with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 222 has sub -20 850s from dc north..-28-30 850s over western me and nh,vt... Monster arctic outbreak, sounds almost identical to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 @ 228 surface temps for the region are 0 up by Poconos to 15 at the NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The cold is insane after the rainstorm moves through. Its just sitting over the Northeast while the +PNA is feeding the cold air down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the end of the euro run is just absolutely brutal, coldest airmass in a long time...sub 504 thickness from the m/d line north...with a sub 482 pv parked south of the hudson bay..850s are -20 to -24 from dc to alb...from alb to bos on north -24 to -28...day time highs not getting out of the teens for the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the end of the euro run is just absolutely brutal, coldest airmass in a long time...sub 504 thickness from the m/d line north...with a sub 482 pv parked south of the hudson bay..850s are -20 to -24 from dc to alb...from alb to bos on north -24 to -28...day time highs not getting out of the teens for the cities sounds like a suppressive pattern. Do not want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Sounds worse than suppressive .. sounds like dry for everyone in the east.. including the south east ;x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 heres the euro hr 144 look and below that is hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the end of the euro run is just absolutely brutal, coldest airmass in a long time...sub 504 thickness from the m/d line north...with a sub 482 pv parked south of the hudson bay..850s are -20 to -24 from dc to alb...from alb to bos on north -24 to -28...day time highs not getting out of the teens for the cities If that is the case, Boston's high would be in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 since the ggem isnt updating on ewall or anywhere else. Heres the hr 120 ptype map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 since the ggem isnt updating on ewall or anywhere else. Heres the hr 120 ptype map Not enough overrunning precip being generated still...there would likely be snow well ahead of that low even before that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The low literally is 992mb directly over the benchmark. Rainstorm. Makes sense since the NAO is going neutral and there is no 50/50 low, the pattern breaks down for a time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 As i pretty much figured when seeing the NOGAPS model and the UKMET which are both progressive models...The means is alot slower and has the low in basically the same position as the UKMET at 144 hrs... ECM is probably slightly east however and it is still looks like a Miller B... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 6z Nam gives the area a light snowfall from the clipper http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_072l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The coastal could be a little stronger, but that's a great track for NYC metro...1010mb off the Delmarva, stays well off the coast. Definitely a snow track in my book. I would think we should be rooting for a weaker wave and surface low in this pattern if we want to see a further east track and stay all frozen. Otherwise, any amplification with this system and there is nothing to stop it from cutting inland given the +NAO and our ridge being centered off the West coast. Then again the over all setup could shift as well in the next 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 A cold rain that adds water to the snowpack without melting too much of it. If a warm rain comes all at once, I see river issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I would think we should be rooting for a weaker wave and surface low in this pattern if we want to see a further east track and stay all frozen. Otherwise, any amplification with this system and there is nothing to stop it from cutting inland given the +NAO and our ridge being centered off the West coast. Then again the over all setup could shift as well in the next 5-7 days. Agreed. The PV over Northern Canada, also favors an inland track. I think we would have to see perfect timing of the northern and southern streams phasing in order to get a snowstorm, especially for the coast. An earlier phase will mean track farther west. A latter phase means the cold air comes in late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 bummer for eastern pa ski areas if rain verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Let's take the Jan 18-19 discussion here: After that threat, I'm in favor of a major cold outbreak. The polar vortex continues to get disturbed and the MJO will be moving into the icebox octants. wxmx has this covered over on the main forum. You should really check out his posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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