tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 this is going to be a way diff solution here....strong s/w in the mid gulf states while the northern stream is diving down in the eastern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 126 has a sub 1004 low across the lakes bringing in colder air...850s and frz line is just south of m/d line...while there is a sub 1012 low over se ga... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 talk about way out of left field at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 132 has a sub 1008 low 100 miles south of cape fear nc...its going to be close between the cold air and the storm coming up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 132 has a sub 1008 low 100 miles south of cape fear nc...its going to be close between the cold air and the storm coming up the coast... This sounds like a Miller A threat. Where is the 850mb 0C line at 132? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Surface low takes the perfect track off the coast, but there is no cold air to be found east of the MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The only area getting snow is Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The low literally is 992mb directly over the benchmark. Rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 138 sub 1000 low about 125 -150 miles east of orf...but the 850s and frz line is well west cause of the northern stream low causing southerly flow ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Surface low takes the perfect track off the coast, but there is no cold air to be found east of the MS. sounds just like the MLK storm last winter. perfect track but no snow until the Poconos really because there just wasn't any cold air anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 144 has a sub 992 low about 50 miles east of the bm....again to warm for anyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The low literally is 992mb directly over the benchmark. Rainstorm. This sounds like BS. With that track and the high pressure in Quebec, this would probably be resolved as a snowstorm as we get closer in. Even the GFS gives NYC metro 2-4" and it is a much warmer track than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Wow, talk about lack of cold air with a perfect benchmark track. lol Sounds like a nice October Nor'easter, at least it shows it off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 .75 precip 50 mi out to sea all the way up the coast, and 0 850 line through central PA, and sanwhiched between sits us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This sounds like BS. With that track and the high pressure in Quebec, this would probably be resolved as a snowstorm as we get closer in. Even the GFS gives NYC metro 2-4" and it is a much warmer track than the Euro. the northern stream storm is what kills it, its up by montreal, the southerly flow around that and the high sliding east causes a southerly flow, which warms us up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 one would think there would be plenty of low level cold air with a track like that N&W of the big cities, models will probably start to zone in on the ice threat as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 seems like a very different setup than we've had this winter so far. Possible rain for the city's with some snow inland. Either that or it's gonna be a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This sounds like BS. With that track and the high pressure in Quebec, this would probably be resolved as a snowstorm as we get closer in. Even the GFS gives NYC metro 2-4" and it is a much warmer track than the Euro. What are the differences between this setup and that MLK storm? Better setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 00z UKMET seems slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This sounds like BS. With that track and the high pressure in Quebec, this would probably be resolved as a snowstorm as we get closer in. Even the GFS gives NYC metro 2-4" and it is a much warmer track than the Euro. Yeah but the Euro does this an entrirely different way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 no one in this entire area, or central pa or pocs sees frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the northern stream storm is what kills it, its up by montreal, the southerly flow around that and the high sliding east causes a southerly flow, which warms us up It sounds as if the trend has been to reduce the importance of the northern stream, though, which could make this a snowier solution than currently modeled. I am highly suspicious of a 990mb low near the Benchmark giving NYC-BOS rain in a cold pattern during January, especially with deep snowpack over the region. But honestly, there's plenty of time to work on this threat as the models have been shifting around conspicuously for the last few days. After all, we're talking about a storm in the Day 6-7 range. Also, could this be the rare ice storm from a coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 00z UKMET seems slower i95 runner it looks there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It sounds as if the trend has been to reduce the importance of the northern stream, though, which could make this a snowier solution than currently modeled. I am highly suspicious of a 990mb low near the Benchmark giving NYC-BOS rain in a cold pattern during January, especially with deep snowpack over the region. But honestly, there's plenty of time to work on this threat as the models have been shifting around conspicuously for the last few days. After all, we're talking about a storm in the Day 6-7 range. Also, could this be the rare ice storm from a coastal? Hope you are right. As we saw in that MLK storm, coastals can be rain, but could more things go well here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 no one in this entire area, or central pa or pocs sees frozen Hell no one sees snow til the storm gets to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 no one in this entire area, or central pa or pocs sees frozen i wouldn't expect the euro to pick up on the LL cold air, but this kind of setup would surely bring a freezing rain threat to the Poconos and Central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 wow, 996mb over the benchmark in january and we get pure rain..The cold air rushes in behind the storm, lets hope those two can meet up..maybe a slower s/w? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Hope you are right. As we saw in that MLK storm, coastals can be rain, but could more things go well here? I don't really know a lot about the MLK storm, to be honest...not something I've studied in depth. It just seems to me that the trend on the ECM is to reduce the importance of the northern stream shortwave, using the southern stream to create most of the storm. If this trend continues, the situation could trend colder with the low over Canada being much weaker and not inducing as much southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Hope you are right. As we saw in that MLK storm, coastals can be rain, but could more things go well here? There's been only a handful of occasions with a track like that I remember rain, last year's storm is one and there were many during 97-98...those were both relatively strong Ninos though, its hard for me to believe the airmass will not be colder than is currently being shown....also if the storm is deep enough it could manufacture its own cold air...it could be 32/32 but snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.