tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 overunning snows for nva to nyc hr 111... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Tight thermal gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 1020 high in SE Canada much better spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Extended duration light overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 123 has a nice sub 1028 high just west of maine, with a 50/50 low on a better spot than 18z, prob wont mean much for the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Couple of inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Cold air hanging really tough up my ways in southern ny state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Now it's cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Couple of inches of snow Nice Cad develops at 126 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Cold air hanging really tough up my ways in southern ny state Yes definitely....this could be snow-->ice for Westchester. Starting to get concerned about a very dangerous situation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 00z GFS screams ice storm, 1028 high in SE Canada, 1032 high in norther plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 <br />hr 123 has a nice sub 1028 high just west of maine, with a 50/50 low on a better spot than 18z, prob wont mean much for the coastal plain<br /><br /><br /><br />Through 126, that high is strengthening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 00z GFS screams ice storm, 1028 high in SE Canada, 1032 high in norther plains Definitely a banana high...and -30C 2m temps under the 1028mb high in Quebec at 120 hours on 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Interesting setup.. Wouldn't surprise me if the whole thing trends south and east over time. The 50-50 does start retreating eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 just a driving rainstorm in the end. To much energy on the back side that just deepens the trof to much. Need the storms to come out in waves, one solid piece is just going to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 <br />Interesting setup.. Wouldn't surprise me if the whole thing trends south and east over time. The 50-50 does start retreating eventually<br /><br /><br /><br />As it is on the GFS, it's a ptype buffet for most of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 model is going to under do low level cold air at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The fact that it is completely different from the ECM ...i would not put too much faith in the GFS.. Lets see what the rest of guidance does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 model is going to under do low level cold air at this point Yes, definitely, this is a strong signal for an ice storm. I seriously doubt my 2m temps are about 32F with 850s of +1C at 132 hours and a 1030mb high over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Let's see what happens with the next shortwave as it dives into the longwave trough that is sitting over us at h156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The ground is also gonna be extremely cold too... We are essentially sub freezing until this event... Could be some big time freezing rain if the cold air becomes very shallow at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 So would a cutter for this next storm actually be better for the chance of another snow event eventually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS really scaled back on the cold air plunging into our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 A lot of clippers in the long range on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS really scaled back on the cold air plunging into our areaFlow deamplifies once the day 5-6 cutter leaves town. Next clipper pretty anemic, too. Still, it's only the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not that cold in the long range.Looks like a gradient pattern to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not that cold in the long range.Looks like a gradient pattern to me. looks more zonal, no amplification, flow from the pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yes, definitely, this is a strong signal for an ice storm. I seriously doubt my 2m temps are about 32F with 850s of +1C at 132 hours and a 1030mb high over Canada. yeah, GFS is not good at all at picking up low level cold air. Will be interesting to see the effect of the high in Canada+widespread deep snowcover once this system gets into the NAM's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Lol.. Fantasy 384 storm ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Tombo, are you doing the Euro tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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