atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The interesting thing to take away from what DT had to say in that write up in reference to the OP run above is the following: At day 7…JAN 19 this storm rapidly deepen and bombs out over the northeast coast bringing widespread heavy snow to much of the northeast– including of course PHL NJ CT LI MASS NYC So while many were looking at the OP run as too warm etc for snow etc and were thinking ICE and rain ...it appears at least the OP run is supportive of snow , at least in his opinion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The interesting thing to take away from what DT had to say in that write up in reference to the OP run above is the following: So while many were looking at the OP run as too warm etc for snow etc and were thinking ICE and rain ...it appears at least the OP run is supportive of snow , at least in his opinion.. I don't get his writeup because it's really confusing. I was talking to him on facebook and he thinks that this might be too warm for snow on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The interesting thing to take away from what DT had to say in that write up in reference to the OP run above is the following: So while many were looking at the OP run as too warm etc for snow etc and were thinking ICE and rain ...it appears at least the OP run is supportive of snow , at least in his opinion.. its not conducive for snow for the cities till the end..interior different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 its not conducive for snow for the cities till the end..interior different. I could see a front end thump to rain for Philly northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The interesting thing to take away from what DT had to say in that write up in reference to the OP run above is the following: So while many were looking at the OP run as too warm etc for snow etc and were thinking ICE and rain ...it appears at least the OP run is supportive of snow , at least in his opinion.. yeah but then he says the ensembles don't support it. so I don't know. I just thought it was moderately interesting that he likes the threat as much as he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I could see a front end thump to rain for Philly northward. I can't tell you how rarely those storms work out. I'm ~20 miles north of Center City Philly, and I don't think I've ever gotten more than 3" from a snow-->rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I can't tell you how rarely those storms work out. I'm ~20 miles north of Center City Philly, and I don't think I've ever gotten more than 3" from a snow-->rain. It works out pretty well up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It works out pretty well up here. yeah it's usually no snow in Philly, 1-2" then rain in the burbs, 2-4" + Ice in the far burbs/LV, and 3-6"+ Ice in NYC. It doesn't matter what the modeled QPF is, that's just how they always work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 yeah it's usually no snow in Philly, 1-2" then rain in the burbs, 2-4" + Ice in the far burbs/LV, and 3-6"+ Ice in NYC. It doesn't matter what the modeled QPF is, that's just how they always work out. I guess CAD doesn't work out too well for the Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I could see a front end thump to rain for Philly northward. sounds like the forecast right before the jan 23 1987 event that i mentioned earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I guess CAD doesn't work out too well for the Philly area. not IMBY, but usually just N&W. the elevation is crucial. Every one I can remember expecting 3-6" and getting screwed with an early changeover. Oh well maybe that would shut up the NEPA weenies for a week if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 yeah it's usually no snow in Philly, 1-2" then rain in the burbs, 2-4" + Ice in the far burbs/LV, and 3-6"+ Ice in NYC. It doesn't matter what the modeled QPF is, that's just how they always work out. I agree with your synopsis but in the LV it usually changes over to all freezing rain which may persist throughout the entire storm event if the winds do scour out the cold air. That is what is tricky to forecast snow accumulations in the LV on Appalachian runners On the other hand it is rare for rain to turn to snow with back end dump. Since a lot of you are calling for a cold wave after this front goes through- would it make more sense that a end dump be forecasted as well, especially if the system is digging in and planning a run to the Delmarva area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I agree with your synopsis but in the LV it usually changes over to all freezing rain which may persist throughout the entire storm event if the winds do scour out the cold air. That is what is tricky to forecast snow accumulations in the LV on Appalachian runners On the other hand it is rare for rain to turn to snow with back end dump. Since a lot of you are calling for a cold wave after this front goes through- would it make more sense that a end dump be forecasted as well, especially if the system is digging in and planning a run to the Delmarva area? oh yeah back-end snow. it's like the female O, it's just a myth. there's always one GooFuS run that drops 3-6" of backend snow that gets everyone excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 if anything phl would hold onto the cold air moreso than your location....your right on the ocean as soon as the wind changes your done..phl atleast has some time.. ocean temps are colder than normal...waters off of sandy hook are 34.9....not exactly warm. about 40 off the east end of long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 ocean temps are colder than normal...waters off of sandy hook are 34.9....not exactly warm. about 40 off the east end of long island. sorry i didnt mean to quote you i meant to quote ant, with that response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I guess CAD doesn't work out too well for the Philly area. if anything phl would hold onto the cold air moreso than your location....your right on the ocean as soon as the wind changes your done..phl atleast has some time.. Look at dc they always hang on to the cold longer than phl and nyc and have a greater ice potential because they are further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 if anything phl would hold onto the cold air moreso than your location....your right on the ocean as soon as the wind changes your done..phl atleast has some time.. Look at dc they always hang on to the cold longer than phl and nyc and have a greater ice potential because they are further inland. This is the type of storm where my area north of NYC really benefits, being at elevation and further isolated from maritime influence. With the GFS track we'd all go over to rain pretty quickly, but the ECM is an absolute nail-biter here...not far away from being a suburbs snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This is the type of storm that turns the Poconos into an icy mess. I remember in these snow to crap events that all the higher elevation schools would be closed and ice would hold on for HOURS after the Wyoming Valley changed to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 oh yeah back-end snow. it's like the female O, it's just a myth. there's always one GooFuS run that drops 3-6" of backend snow that gets everyone excited. Back end snows suck over here. This is the type of storm where my area north of NYC really benefits, being at elevation and further isolated from maritime influence. With the GFS track we'd all go over to rain pretty quickly, but the ECM is an absolute nail-biter here...not far away from being a suburbs snowstorm. Euro ensemble mean Euro ensemble mean doesn't agree with the op run. It's hard to tell what happens after this frame because the storm ends up in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Back end snows suck over here. Euro ensemble mean Euro ensemble mean doesn't agree with the op run. It's hard to tell what happens after this frame because the storm ends up in NNE. the mean is very close to the op, obviously its warmer, but you dont know what the ens mean would like between hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the mean is very close to the op, obviously its warmer, but you dont know what the ens mean would like between hrs. Yep, that's why I said I don't know what happens after this timeframe. The good thing is that we will have a lot of storms to track in the upcoming weeks. With the MJO heading towards a favorable phase, things look like it will get more favorable for the east coast after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yep, that's why I said I don't know what happens after this timeframe. The good thing is that we will have a lot of storms to track in the upcoming weeks. With the MJO heading towards a favorable phase, things look like it will get more favorable for the east coast after next week. like i said before if we get a cutter, that could jump start the nao again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yep, that's why I said I don't know what happens after this timeframe. The good thing is that we will have a lot of storms to track in the upcoming weeks. With the MJO heading towards a favorable phase, things look like it will get more favorable for the east coast after next week. right now it looks like cold & dry behind next week's storm with a huge broad EC trough. but with the MJO headed towards 7/8 and a +PNA going, i think as soon as we slip out of that pattern... BOOM! I'm thinking Jan 25-Feb 5 could be very favorable for a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 0z Nam looks interesting, pertaining to the clipper http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_078l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 right now it looks like cold & dry behind next week's storm with a huge broad EC trough. but with the MJO headed towards 7/8 and a +PNA going, i think as soon as we slip out of that pattern... BOOM! I'm thinking Jan 25-Feb 5 could be very favorable for a big event. Like we even needed the MJO or +PNA in the first place lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Then I guess it did fairly well. Ask SNE and Suffolk County how good the GFS was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 0z GFS has light measurable precip region wide with the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 0z GFS has light measurable precip region wide with the clipper Looks like a dusting to an inch type clipper storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 0z GFS has light measurable precip region wide with the clipper 2nd system around monday is going to be interesting its not phasing as quick with the northern stream at hr 105 as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 <br />Looks like a dusting to an inch type clipper storm.<br /><br /><br /><br />Yea. It has measurable precip for several intervals. Could be a slight accumulation if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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