tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 40-45 probably would not obliterate the snowpack. the gfs is the warmest that i acces to with 2m temps. The euro is in the 30s the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 do you guys see any potential for the Jersey Shore to pick up some snow with the latest GFS models? I don't see much hope at all for the upcoming 18th - 19th storm in that location. I'm not a pro but it seems highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Nice area. I live in a town called Mt. Cobb right on the Wayne County, Lackawanna County line. I own an Ice Cream Shop there. If you ever come through while visiting family between April and October, stop by for some free ice cream. The shop is called That Shake Place. Is it near Big Bass Lake? My family just bought a home there. Would like to give you the business when up there if close. By the way, how does the Big Bass Lake area do with snow? Also, love skiing at Elk. Best mountain in PA and one of the hidden treasures in the area. Thanks. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As of now, no. At least it will give you a break from being a prognosticator lol. Plus, your model of choice, FIM, is very bearish on the oppurtunity. How did the FIM do on this one? I didn't even look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 the gfs is the warmest that i acces to with 2m temps. The euro is in the 30s the whole time. Right, so mid 40s would be the limit right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 How did the FIM do on this one? I didn't even look. i think i saw it was spitting out about .25-.5, but i looked at it like 2 days before the event happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 i think i saw it was spitting out about .25-.5, but i looked at it like 2 days before the event happened. It could have done worse. I agree with snowgoose on this, I think overall the best qpf for most events are the model runs approximately 24 hours before the start of the event. Ones closer in sometimes have spin-up problems, ones further out tend to be too wet (or bouncy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 the gfs is the warmest that i acces to with 2m temps. The euro is in the 30s the whole time. With the snowpack the nights will cool off with rad cooling. Up this way forcast lows over the next few days wil go down in the low teens to upper single digits. We could have some CAD locked in the valley areas to make a icy mess if the mid levels warm up with the Tues. event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ru89 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Is it near Big Bass Lake? My family just bought a home there. Would like to give you the business when up there if close. By the way, how does the Big Bass Lake area do with snow? Also, love skiing at Elk. Best mountain in PA and one of the hidden treasures in the area. Thanks. Mike I'm about 15 miles north of Big Bass Lake. That's a nice area and like me has some good elevation so does well in close call snowstorms. That whole stretch of Rt. 380 from Tobyhanna past Big Bass Lake up to my area is a great place to be if places below 1000 ft. in elevation are having rain or a mix but get up above 1500 ft. and it's an entirely different world. So yes, Big Bass Lake does well with snow and it's a beautiful area. And yes, Elk Mt. is a hidden gem. Hope to see you at my ice cream shop. Mention this message board and the ice cream is on me!! http://www.shakeplace.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 How did the FIM do on this one? I didn't even look. It was really similiar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It was really similiar to the GFS. Then I guess it did fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Then I guess it did fairly well. You think the GFS did well with this storm? I think the MM5, Ruc and Nam did the best. The Nam had the track right, but the precip output was too wet. Last night, the NMM and ARW had the banding in the areas that saw great banding this morning, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Lot's of time between now and then, but CTP's current forecast for Tamaqua starts as snow, goes to a mix, and then finishes as snow showers. Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Maybe this could be our storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 You think the GFS did well with this storm? I think the MM5, Ruc and Nam did the best. The Nam had the track right, but the precip output was too wet. Last night, the NMM and ARW had the banding in the areas that saw great banding this morning, I think the NAM was an absolute disgrace with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This event is one where alot of overrunning snow could occur out ahead of the storm...as of now though the initial cold air source is not great and the high is positioned a bit further east than you want for that, the GEM is the only model that has it in a good spot and it generates almost no overrunning precip at all...if you look at hour 132-144, it should be showing snow breaking out over the NE but it shows only a small amount...the problem may be the 500 trough and dynamics to the SW over the TN Valley and Midwest is simply not strong enough but this is a very 1/8/99 and 12/14/03 looking event to me where inland areas stay frozen but the coast could see up to 6 inches of snow before a changeover if we can keep that high more over the land areas of N NE or SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Arctic intrusion and winter cancelled on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Arctic intrusion cancelled on the 18z GFS Well it is the gfs where it goes from arctic outbreak to torch in one run. Looks like our pattern will be guided by the +PNA for the next couple of weeks, which could be a good thing especially with the NAO in neutral mode. I have a feeling things won't be as warm as the gfs indicates, even for the 1/17-1/20 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 What could help, is if we do get a cutter early to mid next week, that may help restart the -nao. Pair that with a pos pna and let the games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 What could help, is if we do get a cutter early to mid next week, that may help restart the -nao. Pair that with a pos pna and let the games begin. + 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Arctic intrusion and winter cancelled on the 18z GFS ens disagree, they build a huge pna ridge and trof in the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 ens disagree, they build a huge pna ridge and trof in the east... Yep, just saw that. Ensembles look much better than the op run. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Well it is the gfs where it goes from arctic outbreak to torch in one run. Looks like our pattern will be guided by the +PNA for the next couple of weeks, which could be a good thing especially with the NAO in neutral mode. I have a feeling things won't be as warm as the gfs indicates, even for the 1/17-1/20 period. This is true, but the GFS does not exactly indicate a torch, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 the AO is still quite low and it dropped a bit this week...As long as it stays at these levels the pattern continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The GFS has been very poor this year...then again most of the models have been pretty poor this year. As one of the great mets on here said a few weeks ago...you could have woken him up out of a ten year sleep, show him the last twenty runs of the models and he could have told you its a mod/strong nina just based on the large run to run differnces that are taking place. So...even though our winter has been anything like a nina year so far..its still having its toll on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 the AO is still quite low and it dropped a bit this week...As long as it stays at these levels the pattern continues... AO is rising to -1 by the 16th. After that, it's going to tank once again. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 AO is rising to -1 by the 16th. After that, it's going to tank once again. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif. Funny thing is that the cpc yesterday had the ao rising positive into +2 sd, only to be back negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Funny thing is that the cpc yesterday had the ao rising positive into +2 sd, only to be back negative. that's why I mentioned it dropped a bit this week... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 DT is half-woofing the threat: http://www.keyweb3.com/windsong/2011/01/next-up-jan-19-possible-significant-snowstorm-4-for-ne-us/ He seems more excited than I expected he would given the set-up. But I guess if it doesn't bring snow to Richmond then he's not looking too intently at the rest of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This event is one where alot of overrunning snow could occur out ahead of the storm...as of now though the initial cold air source is not great and the high is positioned a bit further east than you want for that, the GEM is the only model that has it in a good spot and it generates almost no overrunning precip at all...if you look at hour 132-144, it should be showing snow breaking out over the NE but it shows only a small amount...the problem may be the 500 trough and dynamics to the SW over the TN Valley and Midwest is simply not strong enough but this is a very 1/8/99 and 12/14/03 looking event to me where inland areas stay frozen but the coast could see up to 6 inches of snow before a changeover if we can keep that high more over the land areas of N NE or SE Canada. Goose- do you see any similarities to jan 23 1987? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'd take a half woof from Dave anyday over any GooFuS model output....Yes it was consistant with the last storm....consistantly bad IMO. I hope the Nao sees this one SE and not NW. We just saw that we can get snow without a 50/50. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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