Atlas Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It's there and on the coast, but still looking warm. There's not a lot of cold air in place according to either the GFS or Euro. 850 temps look 'okay' based on plymouth at day 6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 One thing I fell 100% on is this GFS will change more than a few times before the event. Seems like there will be a storm we just need it to move east a bit plenty of runs left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Right, but Tony and Wes made it sound like it would be going positive in spite of the MJO. That's that part I didn't follow, because I was thinking the MJO was forcing the pattern to the +PNA. Adam, Sorry for the confusion, I agree I think the reason we are seeing +PNA is because of the MJO, I was just wondering if the MJO does not get over to phases 8, et al and we still get a +PNA can we still attribute it to the MJO. I was under the impression that in the winter, the MJO had to stay out of the circle of death to affect change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Here is the Euro at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 850 temps look 'okay' based on plymouth at day 6... OK may be geographically dependent, I'm seeing a nao around neutral, a positive epo, a pna that has not become robust yet and no 50-50 low. This looks more like ice and rain to me than anything else in the Mt. Holly CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Adam, Sorry for the confusion, I agree I think the reason we are seeing +PNA is because of the MJO, I was just wondering if the MJO does not get over to phases 8, et al and we still get a +PNA can we still attribute it to the MJO. I was under the impression that in the winter, the MJO had to stay out of the circle of death to affect change. Gotcha. Yeah, we're on the same page then. This is way outside my area of expertise, but does the huge negative mountain torque going on right now have any effect as well? Or the anomalously strong East Asian jet we're currently seeing (leading to a more Nino like pattern)? I'm still trying to piece together all of my global teleconnections and you guys do a great job helping me learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ru89 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It's there and on the coast, but still looking warm. There's not a lot of cold air in place according to either the GFS or Euro. Is it warm for inland areas as well, like the Poconos, upstate Ny, etc??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Is it warm for inland areas as well, like the Poconos, upstate Ny, etc??? I didn't look at the whole profile, but the 850 0C line is basically west of I-95 up through NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Miller B on the EC @ hr 144....takes a perfect track nearly identical to the system we just had. Only problem is the temps. High pressure even looks to be in a good position. Maybe slightly east of ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I didn't look at the whole profile, but the 850 0C line is basically west of I-95 up through NYC. I would think the Poconos could get some mixed pcpn out of this, again with the caveat that its a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A little more digging and phasing on the euro and this one might have a shot. More of a snow to rain for coast but better for N and West of cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 850s look to be between 0 and -2 from about North of SNJ Obviously would depend on surface temps....but 850s look ok at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 EC DAY 6: EC DAY 7: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Somewhat warm but more favorable than the GFS by a large margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 This has all the making of a rain/sleet mess, then a cold air dump behind. Hopefully, the PV gets in a better position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Here is the Euro at 144 would love to hear about hr156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro Day 6 500 mb/slp day 6 850 temp/slp day 6 700 rh/slp Euro Day 7 500 mb/slp day 7 850 temp/slp day 700rh/slp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Any rough estimates on how much precipitation the euro dumps in the MA on days 6-7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This has all the making of a rain/sleet mess, then a cold air dump behind. Hopefully, the PV gets in a better position Unless a 50/50 low forms preceding it and helps produce more cad, I agree, the teleconnection patterns with this one are not looking favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Miller B on the EC @ hr 144....takes a perfect track nearly identical to the system we just had. Only problem is the temps. High pressure even looks to be in a good position. Maybe slightly east of ideal. High pressure is in a horrible spot, for PA and NJ you want that high to be over the great lakes, once east of NY state, it becomes a negative, personally I'd want that high coming down from Canada to be a bit further south and closer to Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 High pressure is in a horrible spot, for PA and NJ you want that high to be over the great lakes, once east of NY state, it becomes a negative, personally I'd want that high coming down from Canada to be a bit further south and closer to Midwest Too strong of a high and this thing stays supressed and OTS near the MA. We want the high over ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 would love to hear about hr156 The storm goes right over the BM. The problem is that there isn't really any cold air along the coast. That and it's also a weak storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Too strong of a high and this thing stays supressed and OTS near the MA. We want the high over ENE. Nope for PA and NJ this is practically a law for High Pressure Good set up: > 1020 - 1. West of Maine coast and/or north of PA/NY state border. 2. In extreme southeast Canada west of 65 degrees west Longitude or entrenched in Northern Plains/Midwest as a “banana high.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The storm goes right over the BM. The problem is that there isn't really any cold air along the coast. That and it's also a weak storm. it goes from 1004mb to 980mb in 24 hours...that is fairly potent to me. im hearing no cold air...what a waste this would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The storm goes right over the BM. The problem is that there isn't really any cold air along the coast. That and it's also a weak storm. But even with the EC track, we wouldn't be all rain, we'd probably have some type of sleety slopfest. That's better for our snowcover than rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 it goes from 1004mb to 980mb in 24 hours...that is fairly potent to me. im hearing no cold air...what a waste this would be. The storm blows up, just in time for SNE and NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 it goes from 1004mb to 980mb in 24 hours...that is fairly potent to me. im hearing no cold air...what a waste this would be. "No cold air" at the climatogically coldest time of the year would not necessarily mean all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Per euro its ice quickly over to rain, then maybe a brief peirod of frozen on the backend. What screws it up is there is an oho valley low also that initially pumps winds from the south and torches the bl, while the coastal is getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It's not going to be that warm and if anything it looks like this will emerge off the coast near the Delmarva so the best places for snow will likely be NE PA, NW NJ, and up into NE. Now you guys are saying all rain/maybe some sleet - like I said earlier snow drought continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Per euro its ice quickly over to rain, then maybe a brief peirod of frozen on the backend. What screws it up is there is an oho valley low also that initially pumps winds from the south and torches the bl, while the coastal is getting going. If the coastal gets going faster and squashes the OV low, we could have a sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.