Isotherm Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 You failed both last winter and this past summer. And coincidentally this forecast looks almost identical to those failed two. Not sure if you're looking at my forecasts or yours, but here were my forecasts for NYC overall temp departure for those two outlooks Summer 2011: 0 to +1 Actual departure: +1.6 Winter 2010-11: 0 to -1 Actual departure: -1.6 Both of those were pretty darn close, B forecasts in my view. If you look back at the previous three winters, those were also pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 You failed both last winter and this past summer. And coincidentally this forecast looks almost identical to those failed two. Tom had a pretty good forecast last winter. One of the better ones here, certainly better than my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Not sure if you're looking at my forecasts or yours, but here were my forecasts for NYC overall temp departure for those two outlooks Summer 2011: 0 to +1 Actual departure: +1.6 Winter 2010-11: 0 to -1 Actual departure: -1.6 Both of those were pretty darn close, B forecasts in my view. If you look back at the previous three winters, those were also pretty good. Pay no attention to that poster. He's a central/western forum troll. BTW, nice write up. Always enjoy reading your outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 Tom had a pretty good forecast last winter. One of the better ones here, certainly better than my thoughts. Wes, thanks for the nice compliment, but I think you don't give yourself enough credit! I'm interested to read your thoughts on this winter; will you be putting out a forecast this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 Pay no attention to that poster. He's a central/western forum troll. BTW, nice write up. Always enjoy reading your outlooks. I see, figured. And thanks for the comment! If it verifies, should be a cold winter for you folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Wes, thanks for the nice compliment, but I think you don't give yourself enough credit! I'm interested to read your thoughts on this winter; will you be putting out a forecast this year? Yeah, our temps are pretty similar fro dc though the oct snow cover has me worried some so I may bump them up some. I'm toying with 8-12 or 12-16 for dca for snow depending on the rest of Oct. I probably won't go into the depth that you and others have gone into as the players for the winter have been pretty much discussed already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I see, figured. And thanks for the comment! If it verifies, should be a cold winter for you folks Another thing that should be mentioned: he is a warminista in Wisconsin. Given the cold and snow you forecasted for that area this winter, he's just bitter about the colder and snowier trend recently and some of the weak to moderate La Ninas we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 excellent write-up! very clear and sensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Thanks! I expect a fairly strong Aleutian High this winter given the -ENSO/-PDO; however, it should be similar to last winter in that tis displaced further northeast than normal for a mod+ Nina year. The nern hemispheric blocking (-NAO/AO) could connect with the Alaskan block at times, particularly December and late Jan into Feb, when a cross polar flow may develop. I believe the Aleutian high was actually displaced a bit further west than normal overall last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Tom had a pretty good forecast last winter. One of the better ones here, certainly better than my thoughts. Agreed. It was definitely better than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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