Unusually Cool Southeast Pattern For An October Before A La Nina Winter

[bluewave]

It's a bit unusual to see an area of below normal temperatures focused over the Southeast during an October preceding a La Nina winter.

The forecast next week is for a rather impressive cool down over the Southeast.

forecast

[tacoman25]

Other -ENSO years that would fit that general composite: 1906, 1909, and 2001.

[easternsnowman]

Other -ENSO years that would fit that general composite: 1906, 1909, and 2001.

I believe you're saying the winter of 2000-2001.

[HM]

I don't think there is anything unusual about the Southeast cool anomaly. It happens more than you think.

[am19psu]

I don't think there is anything unusual about the Southeast cool anomaly. It happens more than you think.

I know at least some forecasts had a cool SE for October

[bluewave]

Other -ENSO years that would fit that general composite: 1906, 1909, and 2001.

Did you mean 2000? So far there is more of a cool anomaly SE this year but we'll

have to see the final for the month. I know 09 had the cooler anomaly a bit further

north up the coast.

[bluewave]

I don't think there is anything unusual about the Southeast cool anomaly. It happens more than you think.

We'll have to wait for the final verification for this month, but I was talking a larger cool anomaly than

we typically see with a +EPO La Nina October pattern. But you are right that relative to the means

the warmer temperatures will line up to the north. A year like 1988 was cool throughout the East

but the coldest anomaly was situated over the Ohio Valley with more of a -EPO +PNA

Eastern Trough pattern.