12-13 October 2006 Lake-effect Snowstorm

[OSUmetstud]

BUF report on the storm

This storm happened to be my senior thesis at SUNY Oswego.

We ran a ton of WRF simulations on the storm and changed the lake temperature.

Some conclusions that came out:

The precipitation type was basically independent of lake temperature. For **** and giggles, we ran the event with a lake temperature of 100F...it produced a small subtropical storm over Lake Erie even in the presence of strong mid-level synoptic flow.

Physically, the large depth of the mixed layer allow for the thermal contribution of the lake to be mixed effectively upward...reducing the surface temperature modification. Also, the strong transverse circulation allowed for lower ice-bulb/wetbulb air to be advected from the western Southern Tier and the Niagara Peninsula into the area where the snow was falling.

The precipitation at BUF was maximized using the unedited lake temperature. When we lowered the lake temperature, precipitation was reduced overall, and when we raised it, the precipitation was increased over the eastern end of the lake but reduced in the Buffalo area.

[ORH_wxman]

I remember the thread on eastern during this event. What a crazy night that was. The cap/inversion was so high in that event compared to typical LES events.

I just tried to find the old obs thread on eastern, but it must have been bumped to a later date as I could not find it during that 10 day period during and after the event. My friend from college is from Lancaster NY, and he (was at penn state for grad school at the time) was telling me how his dad was running outside during the storm trying to knock snow off the low hanging branches with this long pole so they would land on the garage and storage shed....but then had to go inside because too many were breaking around him.

[Billabong]

I remember the thread on eastern during this event. What a crazy night that was. The cap/inversion was so high in that event compared to typical LES events.

I just tried to find the old obs thread on eastern, but it must have been bumped to a later date as I could not find it during that 10 day period during and after the event. My friend from college is from Lancaster NY, and he (was at penn state for grad school at the time) was telling me how his dad was running outside during the storm trying to knock snow off the low hanging branches with this long pole so they would land on the garage and storage shed....but then had to go inside because too many were breaking around him.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/109165-buffalo-area-on-the-cusp-of-a-historic-les-event/page__st__0

[lakeeffectkid383]

What a great storm. My god. I was talking about it at work on the 13th and everyone was asking everyone "do you remember where you were 5 years ago?" Just a true once in a lifetime event. Can't even explain.

[north pgh]

Found this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:LakeEffectSnowBuffalo101206.gif

[OHSnow]

It was kind of interesting that the lake actually made it colder in Buffalo, because it created all kind of heavy precipitation which led to dynamic cooling. I was in Pittsburgh that day -- it was in the low 50s with mostly cloudy skies (a few peeks of sun from time to time) at the same time it was 33 with heavy thundersnow in Buffalo. Brisk, but not really unusually cold for mid October.

Any model that had failed to account for the effects of dynamic cooling would likely have produced too warm of a boundary layer.

[kulaginman]

Kind of interesting to re-visit this now that New England has experienced an unusually early snowstorm with a large percentage of the trees still having leaves.

I traveled into some of the hardest hit areas following the Buffalo storm back in 2006...and recently, I traveled up to the Merrimack Valley of southern NH which was hit quite hard during the storm two weeks ago. The damage I observed in Buffalo was without a doubt, hands down MUCH worse than what occurred here in New England!! In Buffalo, it is not an exaggeration to say that every single tree suffered significant to severe damage - not just a limb down here, a limb down there...but multiple limbs being snapped off every single tree in sight. Many, many trees weren't just damaged either - they were completely destroyed to the point that they had to be cut down eventually. This is one of the most striking pictures I have come across in the wake of the Buffalo storm...taken 12 days after the fact on Smallwood Drive in the town of Amherst:

In the areas I have visited here in New England, there is absolutely nothing that even remotely compares to that picture. I think one of the biggest reasons for the devastation in Buffalo is the fact that the storm struck on October 12th before the foliage had even peaked yet! Here in New England, our storm struck post-peak foliage when a lot of trees had already shed a number of their leaves, and the leaves that remained were pulled off more easily. Perhaps the variety of tree makes a difference as well.

Either way, I'm nearly convinced now that I will never see damage the likes of what occurred during the Buffalo "October Surprise" storm ever again - and that is a GOOD thing. It really was a remarkable event in terms of both the meteorology behind it as well as the monumental societal impact.

[MGorse]

I found this picture a friend of mine at NWS Buffalo sent me from this epic event. This picture was taken from the NWS Buffalo office parking lot looking toward the building.

[icebreaker5221]

Kind of interesting to re-visit this now that New England has experienced an unusually early snowstorm with a large percentage of the trees still having leaves.

I traveled into some of the hardest hit areas following the Buffalo storm back in 2006...and recently, I traveled up to the Merrimack Valley of southern NH which was hit quite hard during the storm two weeks ago. The damage I observed in Buffalo was without a doubt, hands down MUCH worse than what occurred here in New England!! In Buffalo, it is not an exaggeration to say that every single tree suffered significant to severe damage - not just a limb down here, a limb down there...but multiple limbs being snapped off every single tree in sight. Many, many trees weren't just damaged either - they were completely destroyed to the point that they had to be cut down eventually. This is one of the most striking pictures I have come across in the wake of the Buffalo storm...taken 12 days after the fact on Smallwood Drive in the town of Amherst:

[buffalo_2.jpg]

In the areas I have visited here in New England, there is absolutely nothing that even remotely compares to that picture. I think one of the biggest reasons for the devastation in Buffalo is the fact that the storm struck on October 12th before the foliage had even peaked yet! Here in New England, our storm struck post-peak foliage when a lot of trees had already shed a number of their leaves, and the leaves that remained were pulled off more easily. Perhaps the variety of tree makes a difference as well.

Either way, I'm nearly convinced now that I will never see damage the likes of what occurred during the Buffalo "October Surprise" storm ever again - and that is a GOOD thing. It really was a remarkable event in terms of both the meteorology behind it as well as the monumental societal impact.

I found this picture a friend of mine at NWS Buffalo sent me from this epic event. This picture was taken from the NWS Buffalo office parking lot looking toward the building.

Awesome pics guys . I remember monitoring this event back when I was just a lurker on Eastern.