NYC metro area winter forecast 2011-2012

[Nikolai]

I think one factor that is being overlooked is climate change occurring in the area that's somewhat independent of other variables. While NYC has barely armed-and arguably only because of the expanding heat island-the city has become increasingly wet the past few decades, with most years now seeing 50" or more of precipitation a year, and 60" no longer that uncommon.

The increase in overall precip could be an explanation as to why snowfall is on the rie while winter temperatures have stayed fat/slowly risen. Even if only one month out of DJF is below normal, the extra QPF in general more than makes up for the additional warmth... at least for now...

[Guest Pamela]

Yea, but both of those storms did not have the wind and the heavy costal damage that '78 had on the area, I remember there being drifts where you could go up to the rooftops of houses, and that was because we had a 15" blizzard the week before, with 10" already on the ground.

There wasn't any (or hardly any) snow on the ground on Long Island when the 2/6/78 blizzard commenced; virtually all of the snow from the 1/21/78 event you referenced had melted due to the incredible Lakes Cutter Blizzard that took place roughly halfway between these 2 events...

[earthlight]

I think one factor that is being overlooked is climate change occurring in the area that's somewhat independent of other variables. While NYC has barely armed-and arguably only because of the expanding heat island-the city has become increasingly wet the past few decades, with most years now seeing 50" or more of precipitation a year, and 60" no longer that uncommon.

The increase in overall precip could be an explanation as to why snowfall is on the rie while winter temperatures have stayed fat/slowly risen. Even if only one month out of DJF is below normal, the extra QPF in general more than makes up for the additional warmth... at least for now...

It's hard for me to say that the precipitation amounts over the past few years is the new "normal". These amounts are highly anomalous. Sure, they slightly adjust the normals upward...but this is a small sample size compared to the years of record.

[Sundog]

Yea, but both of those storms did not have the wind and the heavy costal damage that '78 had on the area, I remember there being drifts where you could go up to the rooftops of houses, and that was because we had a 15" blizzard the week before, with 10" already on the ground.

There wasn't any (or hardly any) snow on the ground on Long Island when the 2/6/78 blizzard commenced; virtually all of the snow from the 1/21/78 event you referenced had melted due to the incredible Lakes Cutter Blizzard that took place roughly halfway between these 2 events...

Looks like someone here doesn't know what they're talking about. I did look up several sites from Long Island and even SNE and no one had more than a couple inches on the ground.

[TheTrials]

Looks like someone here doesn't know what they're talking about. I did look up several sites from Long Island and even SNE and no one had more than a couple inches on the ground.

yeah, well, this one is an easy call. When you werent ALIVE for the storm, your recolection of it is bound to be a little hazy.

[earthlight]

I remember the great white clipper of 1558 had bitter temperatures the day before..in the teens. I wasn't alive for it though. Cat5andrew was.

[Sundog]

I remember the great white clipper of 1558 had bitter temperatures the day before..in the teens. I wasn't alive for it though. Cat5andrew was.

Long Island (which is really part of SNE) had almost a foot of snow on the ground prior to that clipper. The snow drifts on the frozen sound made my cross country ski trek to New London look like a journey through a white Sahara.

[TheTrials]

strengthening Nina but also notice the increase is + departures around greenland and off the PAC NW. Should help with +PNA -NAO is the departures continue. Also note the GOA. This is good to keep one eyed monsters from sitting there and torching us with PAC air. Want to see that stay .

.

[TheTrials]

Looking at the long range ensembles, looks like November starts out with a scandanavian block which just barely touches into Greenland. Will need to watch how this block reacts. Does it retrograde over the northeast part of Greenland and settle into a position over the Island, or does it lift out to the other side of the globe leaving us with a +NAO. The reason I bring this up is if you are predicting a cold December, look at Bluewave's latest research.

[Isotherm]

Speaking of snow on the ground, the past couple winters are the first time I recall there being a significant amount of snow on the ground prior to the next storm. It always seems like we warm up and the snow melts off prior to he next event. This is a phenomenon common in the I-95 corridor..although in the mountains of NW NJ and interior SNE the melt-off usually is less dramatic/doesn't occur.

2009-10 and 2010-11 both featured little melting after each event/prior to the next one.

In the great winter of 2002-03, the early Feb SECS melted entirely before PD II.

[uncle W]

Speaking of snow on the ground, the past couple winters are the first time I recall there being a significant amount of snow on the ground prior to the next storm. It always seems like we warm up and the snow melts off prior to he next event. This is a phenomenon common in the I-95 corridor..although in the mountains of NW NJ and interior SNE the melt-off usually is less dramatic/doesn't occur.

2009-10 and 2010-11 both featured little melting after each event/prior to the next one.

In the great winter of 2002-03, the early Feb SECS melted entirely before PD II.

I remember snow on the ground before PDII on Staten island...From January 1988 to March 1992 NYC didn't get a snowfall on top of existing snow cover..There weren't to many during some great winters...1957-58 was one of them...1960-61 had many...I remember January 1982 getting frequent dustings on top of snow cover...last year and 1947-48 had many due to a big dump early in the season...

[KEITH L.I]

I remember snow on the ground before PDII on Staten island...From January 1988 to March 1992 NYC didn't get a snowfall on top of existing snow cover..There weren't to many during some great winters...1957-58 was one of them...1960-61 had many...I remember January 1982 getting frequent dustings on top of snow cover...last year and 1947-48 had many due to a big dump early in the season...

93-94 had snow or ice cover for about 2 months and last year I was in awe,very little melting.Thought I was living in Alaska

[uncle W]

93-94 had snow or ice cover for about 2 months and last year I was in awe,very little melting.Thought I was living in Alaska

the best part of the 1993-94 winter was the double snowstorms in February...last January was great...bad for parking spaces though...

[Guest Pamela]

In the great winter of 2002-03, the early Feb SECS melted entirely before PD II.

We actually had 5 inches of snow on the ground when PD 2 got underway; tacked on 20" more for a snow depth of 25"....deepest I have measured since moving out here in Dec. '94...this even exceeded the considerable depths reached on 1/12/11 when we had close to 23" on the ground.

Log For February 2003 / Port Jeff. NY:

Feb 6-7: 7.5"

Feb 10: 2.7"

Feb 16-17: 20.0"

We had continuous snowcover from February 6 - March 15 that winter out here.

[Guest Pamela]

Speaking of snow on the ground, the past couple winters are the first time I recall there being a significant amount of snow on the ground prior to the next storm. It always seems like we warm up and the snow melts off prior to he next event. This is a phenomenon common in the I-95 corridor..although in the mountains of NW NJ and interior SNE the melt-off usually is less dramatic/doesn't occur.

I wouldn't call it a phenomenon as much as I would call it a climatological reality...the word phenomenon as ordinarily used tends in denote something unusual or extraordinary...melting of snow after most events is more or less business as usual in I-95 because a/ average maximums even in the dead of winter are generally above freezing... b/ a solid 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the winter precip is rain during an average year.

[Guest Pamela]

the best part of the 1993-94 winter was the double snowstorms in February...last January was great...bad for parking spaces though...

Save for January 2004, I think January 1994 was the coldest January in this area since 1982. Snowfall was near average but there were multiple ice events. February 1994 was very snowy throughout the NYC area....

[TheTrials]

Save for January 2004, I think January 1994 was the coldest January in this area since 1982. Snowfall was near average but there were multiple ice events. February 1994 was very snowy throughout the NYC area....

did you vote in my thread?

[ORH_wxman]

I wouldn't call it a phenomenon as much as I would call it a climatological reality...the word phenomenon as ordinarily used tends in denote something unusual or extraordinary...melting of snow after most events is more or less business as usual in I-95 because a/ average maximums even in the dead of winter are generally above freezing... b/ a solid 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the winter precip is rain during an average year.

It depends too on where you are even in that "general" I-95 corridor...esp if you define it as a fairly wide area. The coastal plain of New Jersey probably does noticeably worse than your area for holding snow pack...one reason is latitude, the other might be the bit of topography that N LI has with hills to their south.

[jm1220]

There was a huge difference last year between the very south shore of Long Island and places like Syosset/Port Jefferson, etc. Down here, we had a couple of events where the coastal front made it through and switched us to rain and 40 degree temps while they stayed at or near 32, which makes a huge difference when it's a wet, soggy 40 degrees in terms of melting snow. We had little on the ground before the Jan 27th event while northern Suffolk still had tons due to their receiving more on 1/12 and their locking in colder air. Also, we lost it quickly after the 2/1 icestorm. The run up to February was amazing, but obviously from 2/1 on was a huge bust when the block finally gave way for good, allowing the Nina to blast us full speed.

Altogether though, there weren't huge differences in final winter totals. I had close to 60" and I don't think anyone on LI or the NYC area had much more than that. When it counted we got slammed, especially in the early morning on 1/28 when we had 4"/hour snow rates for a while. I'll never forget seeing that for as long as I live. It was literally just white outside for hours. About a foot of snow in 3-4 hours. 12/26/10 was amazing here also.

[mitchnick]

There was a huge difference last year between the very south shore of Long Island and places like Syosset/Port Jefferson, etc. Down here, we had a couple of events where the coastal front made it through and switched us to rain and 40 degree temps while they stayed at or near 32, which makes a huge difference when it's a wet, soggy 40 degrees in terms of melting snow. We had little on the ground before the Jan 27th event while northern Suffolk still had tons due to their receiving more on 1/12 and their locking in colder air. Also, we lost it quickly after the 2/1 icestorm. The run up to February was amazing, but obviously from 2/1 on was a huge bust when the block finally gave way for good, allowing the Nina to blast us full speed.

Altogether though, there weren't huge differences in final winter totals. I had close to 60" and I don't think anyone on LI or the NYC area had much more than that. When it counted we got slammed, especially in the early morning on 1/28 when we had 4"/hour snow rates for a while. I'll never forget seeing that for as long as I live. It was literally just white outside for hours. About a foot of snow in 3-4 hours. 12/26/10 was amazing here also.

when did you move out of Hazleton???

[jm1220]

when did you move out of Hazleton???

I went to Penn State, so I lived in State College when I was an undergrad. I moved back to Long Island in May 2009.

[Guest Pamela]

I wouldn't call it a phenomenon as much as I would call it a climatological reality...the word phenomenon as ordinarily used tends in denote something unusual or extraordinary...melting of snow after most events is more or less business as usual in I-95 because a/ average maximums even in the dead of winter are generally above freezing... b/ a solid 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the winter precip is rain during an average year.

It depends too on where you are even in that "general" I-95 corridor...esp if you define it as a fairly wide area. The coastal plain of New Jersey probably does noticeably worse than your area for holding snow pack...one reason is latitude, the other might be the bit of topography that N LI has with hills to their south.

I once wrote a paper comparing the climate's of Pittsfield, Massachusetts vs. central Long Island, NY. In it, I recall citing fifteen different reasons why the snowpack holds on better in Pittsfield than on LI / Pittsfield obviously not being an I-95 locale. My above post was not meant as a comprehensive commentary on snowpack retetion but rather an effort to cite the essential reasons melting is common on the coastal plain. If one thinks of climatological "I-95" as DC to Boston; well, of course, Milton, MA will hold their snowpack a good deal better than Reagan Airport.

[Guest Pamela]

did you vote in my thread?

Yes...

[ORH_wxman]

I once wrote a paper comparing the climate's of Pittsfield, Massachusetts vs. central Long Island, NY. In it, I recall citing fifteen different reasons why the snowpack holds on better in Pittsfield than on LI / Pittsfield obviously not being an I-95 locale. My above post was not meant as a comprehensive commentary on snowpack retetion but rather an effort to cite the essential reasons melting is common on the coastal plain. If one thinks of climatological "I-95" as DC to Boston; well, of course, Milton, MA will hold their snowpack a good deal better than Reagan Airport.

Its a good point you make. But I'm honestly not sure how PSF is relevant to N LI compared to coastal plain of NJ...other than that the coastal plain of NJ is much more vulnerable to snow pack loss compared to the north end of LI...such that PSF holds snow more than a place like HFD.

My point was that the N shore of LI holds snow much better than the coastal plain of NJ. I think you would agree with that. What was the other post inferring?

[Guest Pamela]

Its a good point you make. But I'm honestly not sure how PSF is relevant to N LI compared to coastal plain of NJ...other than that the coastal plain of NJ is much more vulnerable to snow pack loss compared to the north end of LI...such that PSF holds snow more than a place like HFD.

My point was that the N shore of LI holds snow much better than the coastal plain of NJ. I think you would agree with that. What was the other post inferring?

I was indicating that snowpack loss during the winter is usually a forgone conclusion in I-95...and I cited the two most important reasons. When you came back and stated that there are subtle differences *within* the coastal plain / I-95, I by no means sought to disagree....i.e. Milton's retention is better than Port Jeff's retention which is better than ACY's....but, in general, the entire area is generally subject to a loss of snowpack during the winter for the two reasons I cited.

I then commented on the paper I wrote...a good 25 years ago...about retention of snow pack in the Berkshire valleys vs. my part of the country...noting 15 reasons why the former area did better....most of those reasons would be applicable in a Milton vs ACY comparison; a few less in a Logan vs ACY look....but the main two I cited....average temperatures and % of winter precip in the form of rain are still w/o question the most important factors....

[Isotherm]

I was indicating that snowpack loss during the winter is usually a forgone conclusion in I-95...and I cited the two most important reasons. When you came back and stated that there are subtle differences *within* the coastal plain / I-95, I by no means sought to disagree....i.e. Milton's retention is better than Port Jeff's retention which is better than ACY's....but, in general, the entire area is generally subject to a loss of snowpack during the winter for the two reasons I cited.

I then commented on the paper I wrote...a good 25 years ago...about retention of snow pack in the Berkshire valleys vs. my part of the country...noting 15 reasons why the former area did better....most of those reasons would be applicable in a Milton vs ACY comparison; a few less in a Logan vs ACY look....but the main two I cited....average temperatures and % of winter precip in the form of rain are still w/o question the most important factors....

Good post, agreed.

[TheTrials]

Good post, agreed.

Seconded and ratified.

[ORH_wxman]

I was indicating that snowpack loss during the winter is usually a forgone conclusion in I-95...and I cited the two most important reasons. When you came back and stated that there are subtle differences *within* the coastal plain / I-95, I by no means sought to disagree....i.e. Milton's retention is better than Port Jeff's retention which is better than ACY's....but, in general, the entire area is generally subject to a loss of snowpack during the winter for the two reasons I cited.

I then commented on the paper I wrote...a good 25 years ago...about retention of snow pack in the Berkshire valleys vs. my part of the country...noting 15 reasons why the former area did better....most of those reasons would be applicable in a Milton vs ACY comparison; a few less in a Logan vs ACY look....but the main two I cited....average temperatures and % of winter precip in the form of rain are still w/o question the most important factors....

Oh ok, I agree with you. A good subset of temperature is looking at each site's exposure to dewpoints >36F. Snow melt is not linear and increases exponentially after the dewpoint cracks 36-37F. A place that is 41/27 will melt noticeably slower than someone at 39/39.

[Isotherm]

Oh ok, I agree with you. A good subset of temperature is looking at each site's exposure to dewpoints >36F. Snow melt is not linear and increases exponentially after the dewpoint cracks 36-37F. A place that is 41/27 will melt noticeably slower than someone at 39/39.

Yep, there's a reason fog is called the "snow eater." I recall many a 6-10" snowpack vaporizing in a matter of hours with 40s and fog rolling through. High humidity literally eats away at the beloved snow pack.

[uncle W]

Yep, there's a reason fog is called the "snow eater." I recall many a 6-10" snowpack vaporizing in a matter of hours with 40s and fog rolling through. High humidity literally eats away at the beloved snow pack.

there was a storm in late January 1978 that melted 13" of 14" on the ground...the 2" of rain that fell didn't melt the snow faster than the fog that followed...Some of the thickest fog I ever saw...I imagine the wind speed could melt snow faster once the temperature is above freezing...