uncle W Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I don't remember how many analogs I came up with last year showing below average snowfall...I did have 1995-96 and 1966-67 but didn't have much faith in them...Then as December kept missing snowfalls I thought the 1954-55 analog would be the closest...Then came 12/26-27/10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 funny how people just say the NAO can't do this or the winter can't be that because it happened before. That is faulty logic on so many levels. Mother nature will do whatever she wants. And there is always a first for EVERYTHING, climo never justifies why NYC cannot see a third winter in a row of 50+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 funny how people just say the NAO can't do this or the winter can't be that because it happened before. That is faulty logic on so many levels. Mother nature will do whatever she wants. agreed...with everybody and their brother on board for a cold Dec, we will most likely get an above normal one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 agreed...with everybody and their brother on board for a cold Dec, we will most likely get an above normal one. Please dont say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 agreed...with everybody and their brother on board for a cold Dec, we will most likely get an above normal one. Alot of group think going on. I like the 2nd week for a good storm as the pattern flips from the end of November cold/stormy and then nothing until January, so I am not on board for a cold December. It probably ends up +2 but could be above normal snowfall depending on that second week storm. January is going to be an amazing month around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Alot of group think going on. I like the 2nd week for a good storm as the pattern flips from the end of November cold/stormy and then nothing until January, so I am not on board for a cold December. It probably ends up +2 but could be above normal snowfall depending on that second week storm. January is going to be an amazing month around here. After January 2011, it can't possibly top that one; the snowiest month we have seen; but we shall see. All depends how strong the NAO signal and the PNA signal is to give the amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 one would think after two big winters, law of avgs say this winter will stink. but not so fast. we've been in a -NAO decline (more blocking) the past decade or so, I think TypoonTip posted something like this a year or so ago. also, we've been seeing a lot of slow moving closed lows and think that continues through the winter. my snow goggle forecast: NYC dec: -1 temp. 10" snow jan: +0.5 temp. 25" snow feb: -2 temp. 15" snow Danbury, CT dec: -1 temp. 15" snow jan: -0.5 temp. 35" snow feb: -1.5 temp. 25" snow and a speculative call is for one BIG march storm, which we havent seen the past couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 one would think after two big winters, law of avgs say this winter will stink. but not so fast. we've been in a -NAO decline (more blocking) the past decade or so, I think TypoonTip posted something like this a year or so ago. also, we've been seeing a lot of slow moving closed lows and think that continues through the winter. my snow goggle forecast: NYC dec: -1 temp. 10" snow jan: +0.5 temp. 25" snow feb: -2 temp. 15" snow Danbury, CT dec: -1 temp. 15" snow jan: -0.5 temp. 35" snow feb: -1.5 temp. 25" snow and a speculative call is for one BIG march storm, which we havent seen the past couple winters. we are definitely due for a cold march. I think the last one was in 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 After January 2011, it can't possibly top that one; the snowiest month we have seen; but we shall see. All depends how strong the NAO signal and the PNA signal is to give the amplification. more of it can't happen because it already did. Flawed. You are smarter than that Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 we are definitely due for a cold march. I think the last one was in 2005? The last big March one was in 2009, for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Especially after we just had the snowiest month ever (or at least close) in Feb' 10. more of it can't happen because it already did. Flawed. You are smarter than that Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The last big March one was in 2009, for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Especially after we just had the snowiest month ever (or at least close) in Feb' 10. Yeah new Brunswick and central park had snowiest month in february 2010......just to be broken less then a year later....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 There should have been a blizzard warning for Long Island for that one, I had sustained winds of around 37MPH and many gusts of over 45MPH, for at least 6 hours, it was also in the teens for most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 more of it can't happen because it already did. Flawed. You are smarter than that Chris. Yes. That is true. I am being a little bit low-key as of now. However, it can certainly happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 wtf The CFS is a highly reactionary model and will bust badly on Nina intensity. I'm in the Euro's camp with a moderate peak, -1.0c to -1.3c range. CFS loves to jump on cooling trends (or any trend) and exaggerate them in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 After January 2011, it can't possibly top that one; the snowiest month we have seen; but we shall see. All depends how strong the NAO signal and the PNA signal is to give the amplification. Chris, after the past two winters, I'm not willing to rule out anything at this point. I had a 46" Feb 2010, 55" Dec 27-Jan 27, 6 storms over 12" in the past two years, etc. The weak geomag activity has really aided in getting those extreme blocks going. The key is the placement of the block over Greenland to the E shore of Hudsons Bay, classic position for lcyclogenesis on the east coast. Hopefully one of these years we can make a run at the 1995-96 seasonal totals. Parts of the NJ shore, just 5-7 miles to my SE, definitely eclipsed the Jan 96 blizzard in the Boxing Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 Chris, after the past two winters, I'm not willing to rule out anything at this point. I had a 46" Feb 2010, 55" Dec 27-Jan 27, 6 storms over 12" in the past two years, etc. The weak geomag activity has really aided in getting those extreme blocks going. The key is the placement of the block over Greenland to the E shore of Hudsons Bay, classic position for lcyclogenesis on the east coast. Hopefully one of these years we can make a run at the 1995-96 seasonal totals. Parts of the NJ shore, just 5-7 miles to my SE, definitely eclipsed the Jan 96 blizzard in the Boxing Day storm. And just because we have never had two consecutive record snow years, does not mean we cannot make it a third, there is a first for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Chris, after the past two winters, I'm not willing to rule out anything at this point. I had a 46" Feb 2010, 55" Dec 27-Jan 27, 6 storms over 12" in the past two years, etc. The weak geomag activity has really aided in getting those extreme blocks going. The key is the placement of the block over Greenland to the E shore of Hudsons Bay, classic position for lcyclogenesis on the east coast. Hopefully one of these years we can make a run at the 1995-96 seasonal totals. Parts of the NJ shore, just 5-7 miles to my SE, definitely eclipsed the Jan 96 blizzard in the Boxing Day storm. What will be entertaining to watch is when we come back down towards seasonal averages. I can't wait to see everybody whining and complaining since they essentially expect 40 inches of snow per winter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 What will be entertaining to watch is when we come back down towards seasonal averages. I can't wait to see everybody whining and complaining since they essentially expect 40 inches of snow per winter at this point. Just go to any of the facebook pages that does NYC area weather, they all have kids on them, they will be freaking out, they clearly did not go through the early 1970's where we had less than 10" every year up until 1977-78, now those years sucked if you were a snow lover. But we have been VERY spoiled in the past three winters, and we are now due for a below average year, but I do not think that this year will be that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Just go to any of the facebook pages that does NYC area weather, they all have kids on them, they will be freaking out, they clearly did not go through the early 1970's where we had less than 10" every year up until 1977-78, now those years sucked if you were a snow lover. But we have been VERY spoiled in the past three winters, and we are now due for a below average year, but I do not think that this year will be that year. I'm glad my facebook page is not one of them. To say we have been spoiled is a bit of an understatement, given the degree of above normal anomalies we have observed and the frequency at which these storms have come. Some of this is obviously location dependent and snowstorms throughout the winter can offer some major disappointment even despite above normal snow in most locations. Still, it's been an amazing three years when one considers what the "average" winter really is around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 I'm glad my facebook page is not one of them. To say we have been spoiled is a bit of an understatement, given the degree of above normal anomalies we have observed and the frequency at which these storms have come. Some of this is obviously location dependent and snowstorms throughout the winter can offer some major disappointment even despite above normal snow in most locations. Still, it's been an amazing three years when one considers what the "average" winter really is around here. I know my average is around 30" give or take a few inches, and the last three winters have all been above that by at least 10 inches. 2008-09 I received 43" 2009-10 I received 61" 2010-11 I received 68" I wonder if this year the trend will continue? If not, there will be a lot of upset people on those FB pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I'm glad my facebook page is not one of them. To say we have been spoiled is a bit of an understatement, given the degree of above normal anomalies we have observed and the frequency at which these storms have come. Some of this is obviously location dependent and snowstorms throughout the winter can offer some major disappointment even despite above normal snow in most locations. Still, it's been an amazing three years when one considers what the "average" winter really is around here. Agreed. No doubt we're going to get some clunker winters in the near future, but I do believe the long streaks of sub par winters ala the 80s/90s are largely done for at least 10-15 years. Heading into the -PDO/-AMO/-NAO cycle is generally more friendly to the northeast. There were quite a few low snow years in the 1955-1979 period but in terms of temps, the diffference is even more significant. 1960-1980 versus 1980-2000. 60s/70s winters: 80s/90s winters: The former map will become more common, and already has over the past few years as we shift to the cold phase Pacific. Warm/blowtorch winters with little snow should be less common in the next 1-2 decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 The CFS is a highly reactionary model and will bust badly on Nina intensity. I'm in the Euro's camp with a moderate peak, -1.0c to -1.3c range. CFS loves to jump on cooling trends (or any trend) and exaggerate them in the longer range. oh good lol, CFS was about to introduce a new category in super nina's i enjoyed reading your outlook btw, 30-40" generally for the NYC area is a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 oh good lol, CFS was about to introduce a new category in super nina's i enjoyed reading your outlook btw, 30-40" generally for the NYC area is a win I'll take a low end moderate peak of the Nina. Currently Enso 3.4 region is around -0.7c so I think it's fair to say this Nina will not go bonkers considering the trade winds In the equatorial pacific aren't very strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Chris, after the past two winters, I'm not willing to rule out anything at this point. I had a 46" Feb 2010, 55" Dec 27-Jan 27, 6 storms over 12" in the past two years, etc. The weak geomag activity has really aided in getting those extreme blocks going. The key is the placement of the block over Greenland to the E shore of Hudsons Bay, classic position for lcyclogenesis on the east coast. Hopefully one of these years we can make a run at the 1995-96 seasonal totals. Parts of the NJ shore, just 5-7 miles to my SE, definitely eclipsed the Jan 96 blizzard in the Boxing Day storm. I agree about Boxing Day, it certainly topped the Blizzard of '96 in my view and it sure hell did down near Belmar and those areas as Wall NJ (my friend claims he measured a crazy 34.5 inches on morning of 12/27, which I believe it, since Bricktown had 30"). And yes I think one of these years, if we et the classic big block (West based structure, and the classic 50-50 lows to lock the HP in Quebec) we can make a run for 1995-1996 and hopefully beat it, came quite close last season... We could have done it had February 1-2, 2011 blizzard rode up the east coast instead of the block eroding down and pushing the storm track to the Ohio Valley and given that dynamic nature of that system, the whole mega-cities would have been completely smothered with 20-30+ inch amounts, like February '83, January '96 evolution of a storm track. It likely would have gave Boxing Day Blizzard for a run; might even exceeded it. Terpeast (Met on this board) said it would have easily topped the February 2010 and January 1996 blizzards. Then again, Boxing Day was only 18-24 hours, all it needed was another 4-6 hours, then we would have beat January 1996 and even.... February 1899 Blizzard for New Jersey. One day we will get another.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Were you alive in 1978? Because that storm was the best one for areas like long island and most of southern new england, for long island, the Christmas 2010 blizzard comes in second. I agree about Boxing Day, it certainly topped the Blizzard of '96 in my view and it sure hell did down near Belmar and those areas as Wall NJ (my friend claims he measured a crazy 34.5 inches on morning of 12/27, which I believe it, since Bricktown had 30"). And yes I think one of these years, if we et the classic big block (West based structure, and the classic 50-50 lows to lock the HP in Quebec) we can make a run for 1995-1996 and hopefully beat it, came quite close last season... We could have done it had February 1-2, 2011 blizzard rode up the east coast instead of the block eroding down and pushing the storm track to the Ohio Valley and given that dynamic nature of that system, the whole mega-cities would have been completely smothered with 20-30+ inch amounts, like February '83, January '96 evolution of a storm track. It likely would have gave Boxing Day Blizzard for a run; might even exceeded it. Terpeast (Met on this board) said it would have easily topped the February 2010 and January 1996 blizzards. Then again, Boxing Day was only 18-24 hours, all it needed was another 4-6 hours, then we would have beat January 1996 and even.... February 1899 Blizzard for New Jersey. One day we will get another.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Were you alive in 1978? Because that storm was the best one for areas like long island and most of southern new england, for long island, the Christmas 2010 blizzard comes in second. No. I was not alive in 1978, but yes, for SNE and Long Island that is number one. However, '96 was pretty bad for Long Island... 30 inches at Lake Ronkonkoma, or so the KU book says. But the December 2009 blizzard hit Suffolk County very hard, with 24-28 inch snow totals there. I was pretty shocked at the totals over there from 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 No. I was not alive in 1978, but yes, for SNE and Long Island that is number one. However, '96 was pretty bad for Long Island... 30 inches at Lake Ronkonkoma, or so the KU book says. But the December 2009 blizzard hit Suffolk County very hard, with 24-28 inch snow totals there. I was pretty shocked at the totals over there from 2009. Yea, but both of those storms did not have the wind and the heavy costal damage that '78 had on the area, I remember there being drifts where you could go up to the rooftops of houses, and that was because we had a 15" blizzard the week before, with 10" already on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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