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NYC metro area winter forecast 2011-2012


NYsnowlover

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This is my winter 2011-12 forecast update:

For this winter I think that NYC will see around 50-60" of snow. I also expect only one blizzard-like snowstorm that could deliver 12+ inches. Other than that, expect many clipper systems that will be re-strengthening when they get close to the ocean, those could deliver 3-6" per storm. I also think that there will be a few Miller B's this year, those will likely give mixed events to the NYC area. There should be no Miller A storms this winter, I just do not see any of these happening thus year, besides, they are usually almost non-existent during La Nina winters.  There could also be a few ice storms fir the NYC metro area.  Overall, think if this winter as being a more snowy version of the winter of 1993-1994. 

There will be more details in my second winter forecast, which will be released around november 11th.  

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the AO has been positive since late August...better now than later...

agree

Yeah agreed as well. I've always been of the opinion "save it for later." Can't say for all cases, but given -NAO/AO blocking episodes last about 30-50 days in duration, if we get one started now, that'll set us up perfectly for a warm/crappy December. My thinking is we'll get the block going around Nov 15 which should take us through Christmas with a pretty favorable pattern. Actually the later it develops the better, ideally late Nov, then we could salvage more of January..

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Didnt the blocking set up in late november last year?

Yeah agreed as well. I've always been of the opinion "save it for later." Can't say for all cases, but given -NAO/AO blocking episodes last about 30-50 days in duration, if we get one started now, that'll set us up perfectly for a warm/crappy December. My thinking is we'll get the block going around Nov 15 which should take us through Christmas with a pretty favorable pattern. Actually the later it develops the better, ideally late Nov, then we could salvage more of January..

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Although I disagree on total snowfall (I think 35-45" for NYC), with my research I also found good evidence for the Jan 25th-Feb 15th period being cold/very cold and stormy in the East. I'm definitely not on board the blowtorch feb train w/ my outlook; I believe Jan will be the warmest month wrt normals.

Overall though I see, once again, Dec 1 - Jan 10 period being the most wintry.

Admittedly it's been a slower than normal response for myself this year when it comes to getting into really looking at the winter stuff. This weekend has been the first time that I've really taken a nosedive into all the data. I hadn't even peeked until Friday. That being said, I tend to agree with most of your thoughts here, although I think we'll end up being frustrated the first two weeks of December. I like the late December into early January period (again). The blocking in November (which I also agree with) will likely end up being a tease...and I think the pattern will take a step back by early Dec.

One last thing...I think the gradient talk is being somewhat overdone, although I do think we'll see a period this winter where the gradient becomes magnified. Really, we hear this gradient talk every Oct/Nov.

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Admittedly it's been a slower than normal response for myself this year when it comes to getting into really looking at the winter stuff. This weekend has been the first time that I've really taken a nosedive into all the data. I hadn't even peeked until Friday. That being said, I tend to agree with most of your thoughts here, although I think we'll end up being frustrated the first two weeks of December. I like the late December into early January period (again). The blocking in November (which I also agree with) will likely end up being a tease...and I think the pattern will take a step back by early Dec.

One last thing...I think the gradient talk is being somewhat overdone, although I do think we'll see a period this winter where the gradient becomes magnified. Really, we hear this gradient talk every Oct/Nov.

Ahem, a little footnote to me would be nice here.

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Admittedly it's been a slower than normal response for myself this year when it comes to getting into really looking at the winter stuff. This weekend has been the first time that I've really taken a nosedive into all the data. I hadn't even peeked until Friday. That being said, I tend to agree with most of your thoughts here, although I think we'll end up being frustrated the first two weeks of December. I like the late December into early January period (again). The blocking in November (which I also agree with) will likely end up being a tease...and I think the pattern will take a step back by early Dec.

One last thing...I think the gradient talk is being somewhat overdone, although I do think we'll see a period this winter where the gradient becomes magnified. Really, we hear this gradient talk every Oct/Nov.

Yeah you make some good points here. Although I do think this year will see a more noticable gradient than last year, with a stronger/more persistent -PNA/RNA pattern, tighening the baroclinic zone in the mid atlantic. Last year the cold pretty much had no resistance down through Florida Dec/Jan; this winter should be much warmer for the SE US after December.

I don't believe we'll see a gradient set-up as bad as 07-08 or 08-09; IMO the blocking will be sufficient to get the I-95 corridor above normal snowfall. I look forward to reading your outlook if you're doing one this year, if not I'm interested to see your feedback on my outlook

PS - I agree about the first 2 weeks of December being frustrating. It'll probably be cold but mostly snowless. I like Dec 15-23 for a significant storm chance and also Jan 25-Feb 10. Seems like more often than not Dec 1-15 is frustrating; it's almost a waste to have a cold pattern then. Ideal case would be blocking from Dec 15-Jan 30th, into the heart of the winter.

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PS - I agree about the first 2 weeks of December being frustrating. It'll probably be cold but mostly snowless. I like Dec 15-23 for a significant storm chance and also Jan 25-Feb 10. Seems like more often than not Dec 1-15 is frustrating; it's almost a waste to have a cold pattern then. Ideal case would be blocking from Dec 15-Jan 30th, into the heart of the winter.

Doesn't sound any different than early December last year. It was cold, but relatively snowless.

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I'm a little concerned that everyone and their mother is going cold for dec. Think dec 2008, ended up mild on the east coast

preliminarily I am seeing potential snow/cold thanksgiving week, 2nd week of december, thaw, then HUGE january with two 6+ events KNYC.

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Yeah you make some good points here. Although I do think this year will see a more noticable gradient than last year, with a stronger/more persistent -PNA/RNA pattern, tighening the baroclinic zone in the mid atlantic. Last year the cold pretty much had no resistance down through Florida Dec/Jan; this winter should be much warmer for the SE US after December.

I don't believe we'll see a gradient set-up as bad as 07-08 or 08-09; IMO the blocking will be sufficient to get the I-95 corridor above normal snowfall. I look forward to reading your outlook if you're doing one this year, if not I'm interested to see your feedback on my outlook

PS - I agree about the first 2 weeks of December being frustrating. It'll probably be cold but mostly snowless. I like Dec 15-23 for a significant storm chance and also Jan 25-Feb 10. Seems like more often than not Dec 1-15 is frustrating; it's almost a waste to have a cold pattern then. Ideal case would be blocking from Dec 15-Jan 30th, into the heart of the winter.

The benefit of having the said baroclinic zone being tighter and more pronounced could be quite dramatic this year if the blocking and NAO cooperate. I'm semi-surprised we haven't seen more people bring it up to this point, but the Dec-Jan period and again later in the winter could provide chances for significant overrunning events if the pattern does play out as advertised. To have 1/2 the blocking magnitude which we observed last winter (which, to a degree, has support from solar data and the enso state), combined with a slightly amplified southeast ridge and a tightening baroclinic zone could lead to prolific overrunning snow events over the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England.

Now, this is not to say that things can't change as they probably will. But at this point the advertisement of such a pattern has to be at least somewhat intriguing. Say what you will about temperature and precipitation anomalies, but we could surely be off to the races with snowfall by January 1st from Central NJ on north into New England if this general idea has credence.

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How much snow do you think that the NYC area could recive during this winter?

The benefit of having the said baroclinic zone being tighter and more pronounced could be quite dramatic this year if the blocking and NAO cooperate. I'm semi-surprised we haven't seen more people bring it up to this point, but the Dec-Jan period and again later in the winter could provide chances for significant overrunning events if the pattern does play out as advertised. To have 1/2 the blocking magnitude which we observed last winter (which, to a degree, has support from solar data and the enso state), combined with a slightly amplified southeast ridge and a tightening baroclinic zone could lead to prolific overrunning snow events over the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England.

Now, this is not to say that things can't change as they probably will. But at this point the advertisement of such a pattern has to be at least somewhat intriguing. Say what you will about temperature and precipitation anomalies, but we could surely be off to the races with snowfall by January 1st from Central NJ on north into New England if this general idea has credence.

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The benefit of having the said baroclinic zone being tighter and more pronounced could be quite dramatic this year if the blocking and NAO cooperate. I'm semi-surprised we haven't seen more people bring it up to this point, but the Dec-Jan period and again later in the winter could provide chances for significant overrunning events if the pattern does play out as advertised. To have 1/2 the blocking magnitude which we observed last winter (which, to a degree, has support from solar data and the enso state), combined with a slightly amplified southeast ridge and a tightening baroclinic zone could lead to prolific overrunning snow events over the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England.Now, this is not to say that things can't change as they probably will. But at this point the advertisement of such a pattern has to be at least somewhat intriguing. Say what you will about temperature and precipitation anomalies, but we could surely be off to the races with snowfall by January 1st from Central NJ on north into New England if this general idea has credence.

Sounds a lot like the 1993-94 winter here from Late Dec onward.We had a big time +NAO but a -AO and one of the biggest +PNA/-EPO setups one will ever see.

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