dendrite Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I know just bustin, I want a Stephen in CT one though. If you google image "how to measure snow" you eventually get Zontie's old upside-down measuring pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Nice stats Will. Those winters where Kevin won seem to favor an event or two where he gets into a meaty band in a storm. That's a little luck right there, to get into the meat of a band. I know in '06 there was that event in early March and then later in April that got him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I wasn't trolling Kevin...he loses to Ray in La Ninas about 80% of the time. The only La Nina years I can say he confidently beat him in was 2005-2006 and maybe 2000-2001, but the latter is definitely not a given...at least in modern times. Last year he won, but it was a virtual dead heat. Ray had more snow in every single one of the 1970s La Ninas. He had more in 3 out of 4 1960s La Ninas as well. Only likely a narrow loss in '62-'63. Many of the differences are by huge margins favoring Ray's area...when Kevin's area gets more in a La Nina, its usually a close race like last year. Only '05-'06 was a big difference in favor of Mt. Tolland. Out of 18 Nina events (or very close to it) since 1960, I have Kevin's area getting more 4 times or 22%. He might get more again this year, but I wouldn't bet them that way. Wasent 2005-06 a complete torch of a winter? And that if we did not get that big blizzard in February, we would have finished below average for snowfall during that winter? I remember the snow from that blizzard gone in about a week, I never saw 30" go that fast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Nice stats Will. Those winters where Kevin won seem to favor an event or two where he gets into a meaty band in a storm. That's a little luck right there, to get into the meat of a band. I know in '06 there was that event in early March and then later in April that got him. 1/2-3/06 as well. The heavy snow made it basically to ORH and then hit a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I wasn't trolling Kevin...he loses to Ray in La Ninas about 80% of the time. The only La Nina years I can say he confidently beat him in was 2005-2006 and maybe 2000-2001, but the latter is definitely not a given...at least in modern times. Last year he won, but it was a virtual dead heat. Ray had more snow in every single one of the 1970s La Ninas. He had more in 3 out of 4 1960s La Ninas as well. Only likely a narrow loss in '62-'63. Many of the differences are by huge margins favoring Ray's area...when Kevin's area gets more in a La Nina, its usually a close race like last year. Only '05-'06 was a big difference in favor of Mt. Tolland. Out of 18 Nina events (or very close to it) since 1960, I have Kevin's area getting more 4 times or 22%. He might get more again this year, but I wouldn't bet them that way. Could be an endless summer through March south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Wasent 2005-06 a complete torch of a winter? And that if we did not get that big blizzard in February, we would have finished below average for snowfall during that winter? I remember the snow from that blizzard gone in about a week, I never saw 30" go that fast!! Yes, it was a very warm winter. It didn't really act like a Nina in a lot of ways, but it basically still was a La Nina. NNE actually had a horrible winter...relatively rare for La Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Yes, it was a very warm winter. It didn't really act like a Nina in a lot of ways, but it basically still was a La Nina. NNE actually had a horrible winter...relatively rare for La Ninas. I think that all of the northeast had a terrible winter that year, wasn't that one of Joe Bastardi's bigger busts(other than last year)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Yes, it was a very warm winter. It didn't really act like a Nina in a lot of ways, but it basically still was a La Nina. NNE actually had a horrible winter...relatively rare for La Ninas. Out of the past 8 winters, 2005-2006 was the only one below normal at BTV. Definitely a sub-par winter, especially considering the long-term average at BTV is 80.9". However, although the long-term average is 80.9", since 2000-2001 (122" that winter), BTV's average is an astonishing 95". Looking at it through an 11-year average of 95", that 70" in '05-'06 looks like quite a stinker. [b][b] 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 T T 0.5 53.6 14.9 12.2 9.7 3.8 T 0.0 94.7 2004-2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 22.8 19.1 29.7 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.7 2005-2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.5 18.4 20.0 8.3 16.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 70.4 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 T 10.0 19.5 32.1 21.8 9.2 0.0 0.0 94.6 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 45.3 15.8 42.3 13.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 120.2 2008-2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 40.0 27.8 11.3 7.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 91.1 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.7 48.4 24.0 0.9 5.5 T 0.0 96.5 2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 27.9 26.9 43.1 29.3 0.8 - - 128.4 [/b][/b] As far as forecasting goes... if you want to use persistence, you should forecast above normal snowfall at BTV. With an average of 95" in this century, BTV must be becoming a much snowier place. Compared with 1979-1991 (basically the 80s) which averaged 66" at the airport, we are currently seeing snowfall that is on average 30" higher than it was when I was a kid. That is an amazing shift in snowfall climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 As far as forecasting goes... if you want to use persistence, you should forecast above normal snowfall at BTV. With an average of 95" in this century, BTV must be becoming a much snowier place. Compared with 1979-1991 (basically the 80s) which averaged 66" at the airport, we are currently seeing snowfall that is on average 30" higher than it was when I was a kid. That is an amazing shift in snowfall climate. We could say that for just about anywhere here. The snowfall average this past 11 years here is 79"...though I do not believe I'd predict that average for the next decade either. But perhaps I should. It could be about the PAC cold cycle in tandem with NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I think that all of the northeast had a terrible winter that year, wasn't that one of Joe Bastardi's bigger busts(other than last year)? It was actually pretty decent for a pocket near the CT border on south...into interior CT. They got some good events in January and Feb. The Jan 2-3 event crushed the area just nw of HFD. We all know about the Feb 12 storm. I was somewhat disappointed about the dryslot in 2/12/06. That basically forced me to look deeper into winter storms. I know it sounds pretty bad to be disappointed b 14" or 15" but when you expect 2'...it is a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I got close to 27" in that event. And it was all gone in a week. It was actually pretty decent for a pocket near the CT border on south...into interior CT. They got some good events in January and Feb. The Jan 2-3 event crushed the area just nw of HFD. We all know about the Feb 12 storm. I was somewhat disappointed about the dryslot in 2/12/06. That basically forced me to look deeper into winter storms. I know it sounds pretty bad to be disappointed b 14" or 15" but when you expect 2'...it is a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 It was actually pretty decent for a pocket near the CT border on south...into interior CT. They got some good events in January and Feb. The Jan 2-3 event crushed the area just nw of HFD. We all know about the Feb 12 storm. I was somewhat disappointed about the dryslot in 2/12/06. That basically forced me to look deeper into winter storms. I know it sounds pretty bad to be disappointed b 14" or 15" but when you expect 2'...it is a bummer. Greedy! ;-) While not my official forecast at the moment I see strong similarities to this fall's weather X the NEUS this current fall to those of 1976/1977 and 1977/78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Greedy! ;-) While not my official forecast at the moment I see strong similarities to this fall's weather X the NEUS this current fall to those of 1976/1977 and 1977/78 Weren't those winters El Ninos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 It was actually pretty decent for a pocket near the CT border on south...into interior CT. They got some good events in January and Feb. The Jan 2-3 event crushed the area just nw of HFD. We all know about the Feb 12 storm. I was somewhat disappointed about the dryslot in 2/12/06. That basically forced me to look deeper into winter storms. I know it sounds pretty bad to be disappointed b 14" or 15" but when you expect 2'...it is a bummer. 12/9/05 of course was great for interior SNE...even Logan airport got like 9" (most in 2 hours) so Boston did well once it flipped over. 1/23/06 was a very solid SW flow event. 6-10" across most of the interior. There was a bit of marine taint in that one. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/pns/pnsPlot.JAN23_2006.plt.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 We could say that for just about anywhere here. The snowfall average this past 11 years here is 79"...though I do not believe I'd predict that average for the next decade either. But perhaps I should. It could be about the PAC cold cycle in tandem with NAO. What's the long term average for ORH? I figured that most stations in New England have been having significantly higher snowfall averages since that 2000-2001 winter. There have been a lot of record storms during that time period, too, in the CWA's of ALB, BTV, BOX, and GYX. Hopefully this trend continues but I fear for down the road when this all flips the other way and suddenly averages go down by 20% again. There's usually at least one HECS for one or two of those forecast areas each winter now it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 What's the long term average? I figured that most stations in New England have been having significantly higher snowfall averages since that 2000-2001 winter. There have been a lot of record storms during that time period, too, in the CWA's of ALB, BTV, BOX, and GYX. Hopefully this trend continues but I fear for down the road when this all flips the other way and suddenly averages go down by 20% again. Long term avg at ORH is 69". BOS has been averaging a bit over 50" in that time as well and their long term average is 44". It will flip back the other way eventually, but it has been a nice trend for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Weren't those winters El Ninos? Don't know if they were or weren't but looking at this past summer thru current fall plus tropical activity for those years quoted and this year thus far not too dissimilar; again I also said its not an official forecast on my part (let me also add i rarely make "an official" winter forecast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I know, the last three winters were insane for my area on long island we have received the following amounts for the past three seasons: 2008-09: 43.8 2008-10: 61.7 2010-11: 73.5 My average is around 35" Let's see if the Trend contunes!! What's the long term average for ORH? I figured that most stations in New England have been having significantly higher snowfall averages since that 2000-2001 winter. There have been a lot of record storms during that time period, too, in the CWA's of ALB, BTV, BOX, and GYX. Hopefully this trend continues but I fear for down the road when this all flips the other way and suddenly averages go down by 20% again. There's usually at least one HECS for one or two of those forecast areas each winter now it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 12/9/05 of course was great for interior SNE...even Logan airport got like 9" (most in 2 hours) so Boston did well once it flipped over. 1/23/06 was a very solid SW flow event. 6-10" across most of the interior. There was a bit of marine taint in that one. http://www.erh.noaa....23_2006.plt.png Yeah so overall it wasn't terrible..esp considering the big events like 12/9/05 and 2/12/06. You want terrible...think of '94-'95 without the Feb event..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Don't know if they were or weren't but looking at this past summer thru current fall plus tropical activity for those years quoted and this year thus far not too dissimilar; again I also said its not an official forecast on my part (let me also add i rarely make "an official" winter forecast). Hey, we could see another blizzard of '78! Just without all of the property loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 100 posts, two forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 7 pages, two forecasts I said earlier I'd post mine when November rolls around. But I think a lot of discussion about a potential gradient coming back has been a theme. Been some good talk regardless. We'll have to organize the predictions more when November rolls around and everyone posts them. I think it was last year when most of the members all posted snow forecasts in November. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/240313-new-england-snowfall-contest/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 I said earlier I'd post mine when November rolls around. But I think a lot of discussion about a potential gradient coming back has been a theme. Been some good talk regardless. We'll have to organize the predictions more when November rolls around and everyone posts them. I think it was last year when most of the members all posted snow forecasts in November. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/240313-new-england-snowfall-contest/ I know dude, lots of good stuff here. Man some of those low forecasts were brutal. Edit hey who won?..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I know dude, lots of good stuff here. Man some of those low forecasts were brutal. Pickles! You ended up winning that contest. I think Jerry came in 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 You ended up winning that contest. I think Jerry came in 2nd. I don't have nice prizes like Beau does for his contest in the midwest, but I'll but a couple rounds for the winner should you show at the first GTG after winter is over or sometime later. Ummmmmm, Guinness Black works LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 I don't have nice prizes like Beau does for his contest in the midwest, but I'll but a couple rounds for the winner should you show at the first GTG after winter is over or sometime later. Ummmmmm, Guinness Black works LOL How about some Jameson Irish whiskey? That is just as good!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2011 Author Share Posted October 14, 2011 How about some Jameson Irish whiskey? That is just as good!!!! Love I mean love Jameson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Love I mean love Jameson Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 This must be below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Not going to use metars but rather some members locations KWXFELLA- Boston KPOWDAHFREAK- Stowe Vt 110 KWXWATCHER- Keene, NH 97.5 KALLENSON- Corinth VT 108 KDENDRITE- Northfield NH 99 KTUBES- Dobbs Ferry NY 35.5 KSOCKS- Rindge NH 106.5 KMEKSTER- Gray Maine 100.5 KDRYSLUT- Lewiston Maine 96.5 KMAINEJAYHAWK- Limington, Maine 94.5 KTAMARACK- New Sharon Maine 113 KTOOT- Somewhere in Buttfook Maine 131 KLOGAN- Knox NY 114.5 KMONEYPIT MIKE- Shelburne Mass 102.5 KSKIMRG- West Chesterfield Mass 132.5 KWEATHERX- Norwalk CT 36.5 KGRINCH- Shelton CT 65 KLIBATIONS- Fairfield, CT 37.5 KWIZ KCTRAIN- West Hartford CT 64 KCOLLINSVILLE- Collinsville, ct 72.5 KCTBLIZZ- Tolland Ct 84.5 KCOASTAL RI- Westerly RI 47.5 KNECT- Woodstock, CT 72 KMATTMFER- Providence, RI 74.5 KTAUNTON BOB- Taunton, Ma 64 KAMYB- Blackstone, MA 81 KWILL- Worcester Mass 98.5 KHUBBDAVE- Hubbardstown, Mass 99.5 K40/70- Wilmington, Mass 88.5 KCOASTALWX-Dorchester Mass 76 KCCWEATHER.NET- Cape Cod Mass 38 KMESSENGER- Plymouth Mass 42 KSCITUATE- Scituate Mass 56 KGINX- Moosup-CT 61 also KWEATHERMA 92.5 These numbers match pretty well with my "everyone gets 20% under Ginx' numbers" guess. And his map places Jeff's 115" just west of MBY while moving my 132" about 100 miles NNE. That location would've been a much shorter drive home as I left VimTootLand about 6 PM last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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